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Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Congressional Confessions 4
John Cassidy
New Yorker/ Conde Nast Portfolio
He stands accused of making two major mistakes: one, keeping interest rates low for too long and allowing a housing bubble to occur; and, B, abdicating his responsibility as a regulator.
Blame belongs to many
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Alice Rivlin, is this essentially what Alan Greenspan has said before, we just didn't hear it clearly enough?
ALICE RIVLIN: I don't think so. And I wouldn't be as harsh as Mr. Cassidy. We can't blame all of this on one person. There was blame to go around.
We were victims, the whole country, of a collective delusion that housing prices would keep on going up. And I think we lost control of our common sense.
Many people who bought mortgage-backed securities, who bought other securities that were related to them, didn't ask one simple question, which was, what happens to the value of these securities when housing prices go down, as they eventually would?
Now, Mr. Greenspan said that today, basically. He said the models were based -- the models of risk were based on the past. And that's right.
But you didn't have to be a genius to know that this couldn't continue forever and that the question -- what happens when prices go down? -- should have been asked by a lot of people in the whole system.
JUDY WOODRUFF: You're saying beyond the Fed?
ALICE RIVLIN: Certainly beyond the Fed.
JUDY WOODRUFF: John Cassidy, the other -- go ahead.
JOHN CASSIDY: I mean, I agree with that. I don't think Greenspan is wholly responsible. Obviously, he's not.
You know, the investors were responsible; the bankers were responsible; the media was responsible for not reporting more aggressively on this.
But, you know, the head of the Federal Reserve is meant to be the most senior regulator in the country. And in this instance, you know, he stands accused of making two major mistakes: one, keeping interest rates low for too long and allowing a housing bubble to occur; and, B, abdicating his responsibility as a regulator.
He didn't really address the first of those things today. He did address the second and said he made a partial mistake in not agreeing to the regulation of credit default swaps. But that was the first time he said anything like that. And it was a semi-mea culpa, I guess you'd call it, but I don't think it went all the way.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Alice Rivlin, what about that? I mean, he did acknowledge today -- he said he's found a flaw in his understanding, what had been his understanding of how credit markets work. Is that -- how significant...
ALICE RIVLIN: Oh, I think that's very significant, and it isn't just Alan Greenspan. A lot of people were very committed to an ideology, to use that word, that said markets work perfectly or almost perfectly to channel capital into the right places and to correct mistakes.
Well, they don't. When we get into a situation where we have this collective delusion that something that can't go on forever is going to go on forever, we need something to pull us back from the brink.
And I think we'll now have more sensible regulation. I hope we don't over-regulate, but regulation that is somewhere in the middle between "markets always work" and "markets don't work at all."
We need markets. But we need to correct the rules and modernize the regulation so it keeps up with the fast changes.
Alice Rivlin
Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board
And the real question is, should they have used interest rates to slow down a housing bubble and punish the rest of the economy? I don't think that would have been possible.
Debating Greenspan's influence
JUDY WOODRUFF: John Cassidy, is it so clear that, if the decisions that the committee was grilling Alan Greenspan and John Snow and Chris Cox about today, if those decisions had been different, that everything we're going through now could have been avoided or what?
JOHN CASSIDY: I mean, that's an impossible question to answer. I mean, Greenspan's supporters would say that he couldn't have made the difference. I'd say I don't think -- the counterfactual is impossible to define, but I think it would have made some difference.
I mean, these markets just weren't regulated, the credit default swaps. And as Alice says, the mortgage markets were only regulated at the local level.
There were people inside the Fed who were raising issues about these things. Ned Gramlich, the late Ned Gramlich, who was a Fed governor, did issue some warnings to Greenspan and was ignored.
Brooks Lee Bonn, the ex-head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, tried to get her agency to regulate some of these derivatives and Greenspan brushed her off.
Now, would that have made all the difference? I don't know. It is very, very difficult to deal with a speculative bubble once it gets going. But what you can try and do is try and stop one beginning in the first place. And I think, you know, most of the mistakes were made early on.
JUDY WOODRUFF: How much difference do you think it would have made?
ALICE RIVLIN: I think it would have made some difference. I don't agree that keeping interest rates too low, too long was a major part of it. With hindsight, it might seem to be.
But the Fed was in a difficult situation, because the economy wasn't growing very well. There wasn't any inflation. They're supposed to look after the whole economy.
And the real question is, should they have used interest rates to slow down a housing bubble and punish the rest of the economy? I don't think that would have been possible.
It would have meant raising interest rates so high that it would have killed economic growth. And some of the same people that are fussing it, Mr. Greenspan now, would have begun outraged by that.
John Cassidy
New Yorker/ Conde Nast Portfolio
I think today was more about, you know, what happened in the past. Everybody -- even Greenspan, it appears -- now agrees that there needs to be some form of regulation of these products.
Steps for the future
JUDY WOODRUFF: Does today -- John Cassidy, does what we heard today provide clarity, in terms of what should be done in the future?
JOHN CASSIDY: I think today was more about, you know, what happened in the past. Everybody -- even Greenspan, it appears -- now agrees that there needs to be some form of regulation of these products.
When you get into the details, it's very complicated about what actually needs to be done. I think what's going to have to happen is the next president is going to have to appoint some sort of bipartisan panel or some experts panel, perhaps led by Greenspan's predecessor, Paul Volcker, or somebody of that stature, to come up with a set of detailed suggestions which Congress can then deal upon.
Because one thing we've seen -- I know Greenspan stressed today quite correctly -- the financial system is now incredibly complicated, with all sorts of markets in all sorts of places interconnected. So, you know, you can't rush into regulating.
And as Alice said, there is a danger of over-regulating. But I think something needs to be done.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Alice Rivlin, as we referred in the report there, Alan Greenspan was called the Oracle, the Maestro. What is his reputation -- how has all this affected him and the regard in which he's held?
ALICE RIVLIN: Well, I personally have a high regard for Alan Greenspan. I worked with him. I enjoyed it. He's very smart.
But he is ideological. He did stand in the way of modernizing our regulatory system. And I believe that was a mistake and maybe he does now, too.
The financial structure was changing very, very rapidly, new products, new institutions, and we didn't modernize the regulatory system to keep up with that.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we are going to leave it there. Alice Rivlin, John Cassidy, thank you both.
JOHN CASSIDY: Thank you.
New Yorker/ Conde Nast Portfolio
He stands accused of making two major mistakes: one, keeping interest rates low for too long and allowing a housing bubble to occur; and, B, abdicating his responsibility as a regulator.
Blame belongs to many
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Alice Rivlin, is this essentially what Alan Greenspan has said before, we just didn't hear it clearly enough?
ALICE RIVLIN: I don't think so. And I wouldn't be as harsh as Mr. Cassidy. We can't blame all of this on one person. There was blame to go around.
We were victims, the whole country, of a collective delusion that housing prices would keep on going up. And I think we lost control of our common sense.
Many people who bought mortgage-backed securities, who bought other securities that were related to them, didn't ask one simple question, which was, what happens to the value of these securities when housing prices go down, as they eventually would?
Now, Mr. Greenspan said that today, basically. He said the models were based -- the models of risk were based on the past. And that's right.
But you didn't have to be a genius to know that this couldn't continue forever and that the question -- what happens when prices go down? -- should have been asked by a lot of people in the whole system.
JUDY WOODRUFF: You're saying beyond the Fed?
ALICE RIVLIN: Certainly beyond the Fed.
JUDY WOODRUFF: John Cassidy, the other -- go ahead.
JOHN CASSIDY: I mean, I agree with that. I don't think Greenspan is wholly responsible. Obviously, he's not.
You know, the investors were responsible; the bankers were responsible; the media was responsible for not reporting more aggressively on this.
But, you know, the head of the Federal Reserve is meant to be the most senior regulator in the country. And in this instance, you know, he stands accused of making two major mistakes: one, keeping interest rates low for too long and allowing a housing bubble to occur; and, B, abdicating his responsibility as a regulator.
He didn't really address the first of those things today. He did address the second and said he made a partial mistake in not agreeing to the regulation of credit default swaps. But that was the first time he said anything like that. And it was a semi-mea culpa, I guess you'd call it, but I don't think it went all the way.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Alice Rivlin, what about that? I mean, he did acknowledge today -- he said he's found a flaw in his understanding, what had been his understanding of how credit markets work. Is that -- how significant...
ALICE RIVLIN: Oh, I think that's very significant, and it isn't just Alan Greenspan. A lot of people were very committed to an ideology, to use that word, that said markets work perfectly or almost perfectly to channel capital into the right places and to correct mistakes.
Well, they don't. When we get into a situation where we have this collective delusion that something that can't go on forever is going to go on forever, we need something to pull us back from the brink.
And I think we'll now have more sensible regulation. I hope we don't over-regulate, but regulation that is somewhere in the middle between "markets always work" and "markets don't work at all."
We need markets. But we need to correct the rules and modernize the regulation so it keeps up with the fast changes.
Alice Rivlin
Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board
And the real question is, should they have used interest rates to slow down a housing bubble and punish the rest of the economy? I don't think that would have been possible.
Debating Greenspan's influence
JUDY WOODRUFF: John Cassidy, is it so clear that, if the decisions that the committee was grilling Alan Greenspan and John Snow and Chris Cox about today, if those decisions had been different, that everything we're going through now could have been avoided or what?
JOHN CASSIDY: I mean, that's an impossible question to answer. I mean, Greenspan's supporters would say that he couldn't have made the difference. I'd say I don't think -- the counterfactual is impossible to define, but I think it would have made some difference.
I mean, these markets just weren't regulated, the credit default swaps. And as Alice says, the mortgage markets were only regulated at the local level.
There were people inside the Fed who were raising issues about these things. Ned Gramlich, the late Ned Gramlich, who was a Fed governor, did issue some warnings to Greenspan and was ignored.
Brooks Lee Bonn, the ex-head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, tried to get her agency to regulate some of these derivatives and Greenspan brushed her off.
Now, would that have made all the difference? I don't know. It is very, very difficult to deal with a speculative bubble once it gets going. But what you can try and do is try and stop one beginning in the first place. And I think, you know, most of the mistakes were made early on.
JUDY WOODRUFF: How much difference do you think it would have made?
ALICE RIVLIN: I think it would have made some difference. I don't agree that keeping interest rates too low, too long was a major part of it. With hindsight, it might seem to be.
But the Fed was in a difficult situation, because the economy wasn't growing very well. There wasn't any inflation. They're supposed to look after the whole economy.
And the real question is, should they have used interest rates to slow down a housing bubble and punish the rest of the economy? I don't think that would have been possible.
It would have meant raising interest rates so high that it would have killed economic growth. And some of the same people that are fussing it, Mr. Greenspan now, would have begun outraged by that.
John Cassidy
New Yorker/ Conde Nast Portfolio
I think today was more about, you know, what happened in the past. Everybody -- even Greenspan, it appears -- now agrees that there needs to be some form of regulation of these products.
Steps for the future
JUDY WOODRUFF: Does today -- John Cassidy, does what we heard today provide clarity, in terms of what should be done in the future?
JOHN CASSIDY: I think today was more about, you know, what happened in the past. Everybody -- even Greenspan, it appears -- now agrees that there needs to be some form of regulation of these products.
When you get into the details, it's very complicated about what actually needs to be done. I think what's going to have to happen is the next president is going to have to appoint some sort of bipartisan panel or some experts panel, perhaps led by Greenspan's predecessor, Paul Volcker, or somebody of that stature, to come up with a set of detailed suggestions which Congress can then deal upon.
Because one thing we've seen -- I know Greenspan stressed today quite correctly -- the financial system is now incredibly complicated, with all sorts of markets in all sorts of places interconnected. So, you know, you can't rush into regulating.
And as Alice said, there is a danger of over-regulating. But I think something needs to be done.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Alice Rivlin, as we referred in the report there, Alan Greenspan was called the Oracle, the Maestro. What is his reputation -- how has all this affected him and the regard in which he's held?
ALICE RIVLIN: Well, I personally have a high regard for Alan Greenspan. I worked with him. I enjoyed it. He's very smart.
But he is ideological. He did stand in the way of modernizing our regulatory system. And I believe that was a mistake and maybe he does now, too.
The financial structure was changing very, very rapidly, new products, new institutions, and we didn't modernize the regulatory system to keep up with that.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we are going to leave it there. Alice Rivlin, John Cassidy, thank you both.
JOHN CASSIDY: Thank you.
Congressional Confessions 3
Continued
Alice Rivlin
Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board
As this housing bubble grew and took off, lenders were making a lot of loans that they shouldn't have made. And borrowers were borrowing when they shouldn't have made them.
Forecasting the crisis
JUDY WOODRUFF: To get some perspective on today's hearing and what was revealed, we get the views of two people who've watched the Fed closely over the years, one from the inside and one from the outside.
Alice Rivlin served as vice chair of the Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Also a former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Clinton, she's now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
And John Cassidy, he's a staff writer at the New Yorker and contributing editor at Conde Nast Portfolio. He has covered Alan Greenspan for both magazines.
Thank you both for being with us.
Alice Rivlin, to you first. When Alan Greenspan says we were just not smart enough, no one was smart enough to be able to forecast what was going to happen, first of all, do you agree with him?
ALICE RIVLIN, Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board: Not completely. I think what we failed to do was look at where the incentives in our system were going to get us into trouble.
Now, one was in subprime mortgages. We were not regulating the lenders that were putting out a lot of bad loans, in retrospect.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So you think that information wasn't available?
ALICE RIVLIN: Well, no, I think it was available. These institutions were not federally regulated banks, mostly. They were mortgage lenders who were regulated by the states, if at all.
But as this housing bubble grew and took off, lenders were making a lot of loans that they shouldn't have made. And borrowers were borrowing when they shouldn't have made them.
And then there was another complication, several more, but these loans were being packaged and sold to somebody else to be backing for mortgage-backed securities.
Now, in the old days, the lender really had to watch out that he wasn't making a bad loan because he might not get repaid. But in this new world, he didn't have to worry about that. He could sell this loan to somebody else and then take the money and make another loan. So we got the incentives wrong there.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So you're saying that the information was there and people did have -- should have known better, is basically what you're -- let me bring John Cassidy in.
How significant is it, this statement by Mr. Greenspan that people just didn't know enough to do anything about it?
JOHN CASSIDY, The New Yorker/Portfolio Magazine: Well, it was a remarkable appearance all told, if you think back to 10 years ago, even 5 years ago, how, you know, in what awe Greenspan was held. I covered a lot of hearings on the Hill, and he was treated with great deference, as your report said.
But actually I think he didn't really change his tune that much. During the speculative bubble of the '90s, he used to say, "This is too complicated. Nobody can really understand if it is a bubble."
Then we had a second bubble, the housing bubble, which was obviously linked to the subprime problem. And now he's saying, "Well, that was too complicated, too. Nobody could really understand that, either."
Now, if you think about that, what he's really saying is, you know, he's the top regulator in the country. He's the head of the central bank, but he can't really do anything about the major problems in the economy.
And I think, you know, that's just pushing it a bit.
Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board
As this housing bubble grew and took off, lenders were making a lot of loans that they shouldn't have made. And borrowers were borrowing when they shouldn't have made them.
Forecasting the crisis
JUDY WOODRUFF: To get some perspective on today's hearing and what was revealed, we get the views of two people who've watched the Fed closely over the years, one from the inside and one from the outside.
Alice Rivlin served as vice chair of the Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Also a former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Clinton, she's now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
And John Cassidy, he's a staff writer at the New Yorker and contributing editor at Conde Nast Portfolio. He has covered Alan Greenspan for both magazines.
Thank you both for being with us.
Alice Rivlin, to you first. When Alan Greenspan says we were just not smart enough, no one was smart enough to be able to forecast what was going to happen, first of all, do you agree with him?
ALICE RIVLIN, Former Vice Chair, Federal Reserve Board: Not completely. I think what we failed to do was look at where the incentives in our system were going to get us into trouble.
Now, one was in subprime mortgages. We were not regulating the lenders that were putting out a lot of bad loans, in retrospect.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So you think that information wasn't available?
ALICE RIVLIN: Well, no, I think it was available. These institutions were not federally regulated banks, mostly. They were mortgage lenders who were regulated by the states, if at all.
But as this housing bubble grew and took off, lenders were making a lot of loans that they shouldn't have made. And borrowers were borrowing when they shouldn't have made them.
And then there was another complication, several more, but these loans were being packaged and sold to somebody else to be backing for mortgage-backed securities.
Now, in the old days, the lender really had to watch out that he wasn't making a bad loan because he might not get repaid. But in this new world, he didn't have to worry about that. He could sell this loan to somebody else and then take the money and make another loan. So we got the incentives wrong there.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So you're saying that the information was there and people did have -- should have known better, is basically what you're -- let me bring John Cassidy in.
How significant is it, this statement by Mr. Greenspan that people just didn't know enough to do anything about it?
JOHN CASSIDY, The New Yorker/Portfolio Magazine: Well, it was a remarkable appearance all told, if you think back to 10 years ago, even 5 years ago, how, you know, in what awe Greenspan was held. I covered a lot of hearings on the Hill, and he was treated with great deference, as your report said.
But actually I think he didn't really change his tune that much. During the speculative bubble of the '90s, he used to say, "This is too complicated. Nobody can really understand if it is a bubble."
Then we had a second bubble, the housing bubble, which was obviously linked to the subprime problem. And now he's saying, "Well, that was too complicated, too. Nobody could really understand that, either."
Now, if you think about that, what he's really saying is, you know, he's the top regulator in the country. He's the head of the central bank, but he can't really do anything about the major problems in the economy.
And I think, you know, that's just pushing it a bit.
Congressional Confessions 2
Before I present these questions and answers, I must admit that I am a great fan of Mr Greenspan. In Fact, I remember buying his book "Turbulent Times" with the last few quids I had in my pocket and I had by mistake left my wallet, cash and credit cards at the hotel, so I spent the entire afternoon sitting on Hide Park benches with no food or drink just flipping through the pages of that most interesting book. Then I had to walk back to the hotel, which was a nice and not too long of a walk anyway!
wn
****************
Source:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec08/crisishearing_10-23.html
Greenspan Admits 'Flaw'
Greenspan Admits 'Flaw'
to Congress, Predicts
More Economic Problems
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan told Congress Thursday the economic crisis unveiled "a flaw" in his view of world markets. Economic analysts discuss his testimony and legacy.
JIM LEHRER: Judy Woodruff has our financial crisis story tonight.
JUDY WOODRUFF: The former chair of the Federal Reserve and one of the best-known names in finance returned to Capitol Hill today for the first time since the financial crisis began.
Alan Greenspan, who headed the Fed for 18 years, until early 2006, appeared with the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Chris Cox, and former Treasury Secretary John Snow, at a hearing examining the role of federal regulators in the current crisis.
ALAN GREENSPAN, Former Federal Reserve Chairman: We are in the midst of a once-in-a-century credit tsunami. Central banks and governments are being required to take unprecedented measures.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Greenspan has been criticized for decisions he made earlier this decade that some economists charge helped to foster the housing bubble.
REP. HENRY WAXMAN (D), California: And my question for you is simple: Were you wrong?
ALAN GREENSPAN: Partially.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Democrats on the committee, led by the chairman, Henry Waxman of California, pressed Greenspan on whether his fundamental economic philosophy was mistaken.
REP. HENRY WAXMAN: The question I have for you is, you had an ideology, you had a belief that free, competitive -- and this is your statement -- "I do have an ideology. My judgment is that free, competitive markets are by far the unrivaled way to organize economies. We've tried regulation. None meaningfully worked." That was your quote.
You had the authority to prevent irresponsible lending practices that led to the subprime mortgage crisis. You were advised to do so by many others. And now our whole economy is paying its price.
Do you feel that your ideology pushed you to make decisions that you wish you had not made?
ALAN GREENSPAN: Well, remember that what an ideology is, is a conceptual framework with the way people deal with reality. Everyone has one. You have to -- to exist, you need an ideology. The question is whether it is accurate or not.
And what I'm saying to you is, yes, I found a flaw. I don't know how significant or permanent it is, but I've been very distressed by that fact.
REP. HENRY WAXMAN: You found a flaw in the reality...
ALAN GREENSPAN: Flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works, so to speak.
REP. HENRY WAXMAN: In other words, you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right, it was not working?
ALAN GREENSPAN: That is -- precisely. No, that's precisely the reason I was shocked, because I had been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.
JUDY WOODRUFF: When he was Fed chair, Greenspan made many appearances before congressional committees and was generally treated with deference. His opinion was widely sought and his words heeded.
But today, in the aftermath of the financial meltdown, Greenspan faced a much rougher reception from Democrats.
Ohio's Dennis Kucinich.
REP. DENNIS KUCINICH (D), Ohio: Â Now, Mr. Greenspan, before the collapse of the housing bubble, didn't you also say that the U.S. has not experienced housing slumps to justify your policy that there would be no bubble? And can you tell this committee when it occurred to you that there was a housing bubble?
ALAN GREENSPAN: I knew -- the housing bubble became clear to me sometime in early 2006, in retrospect. I did not forecast a significant decline because we had never had a significant decline in prices.
And it's only as the process began to emerge that it became clear that we were about to have what essentially was a global decline in home prices.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Republicans sought to shift the focus to the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage entities in the crisis.
Idaho Republican Bill Sali asked SEC Chair Cox whether those responsible for the crisis will pay a price.
REP. BILL SALI (R), Idaho: Are the people that have caused this, is somebody going to go to jail?
CHRISTOPHER COX, Chairman, Securities and Exchange Commission: There is no question that, somewhere in this terrible mess, many laws were broken. Right now, the criminal authorities and the civil authorities, not only in the federal government and the state governments, but in other countries, because this is now, as you know, a matter of intense international focus, are working to make sure that lawbreakers are held accountable and people are brought to justice.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Greenspan and Cox contended regulators cannot predict crises. Chairman Waxman took issue with that.
REP. HENRY WAXMAN: Well, I want smart regulation. But I want to point out that what I'm hearing from our witnesses today is that they just didn't know. They couldn't make projections about what the future was or they're not always right.
The truth of the matter is that there were a lot of warning signs. The reasons why we set up your agencies and gave you budget authority to hire people is so that you can see problems developing before they become a financial crisis.
To tell us afterwards, when we are now faced with the disaster that we're seeing, that you couldn't have foreseen it just doesn't satisfy me.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Greenspan, who was once dubbed the Oracle in the world of finance, said his predictive powers were limited.
ALAN GREENSPAN: So it strikes me that, if you go back and ask yourself how in the early years anybody could realistically make a judgment as to what was ultimately going to happen to subprime, I think you're asking more than anybody is capable of judging.
And we have this extraordinarily complex global economy, which as everybody now realizes is very difficult to forecast in any considerable detail.
And, Mr. Chairman, I know -- I agree with you in the fact that there were a lot of people who raised issues about problems emerging, but there are always a lot of people raising issues, and half the time they're wrong. And the question is, what do you do?
I mean, you point out quite correctly that the Federal Reserve had as good an economic organization as exists, and I would say, in the world. If all those extraordinarily capable people were unable to foresee the development of this critical problem, which undoubtedly was the cause of the world problem with respect to mortgage-backed securities, I have to -- I think we have to ask ourselves, why is that?
And the answer is that we're not smart enough as people. We just cannot see events that far in advance. And unless we can, it's very difficult to look back and say, why didn't we catch something?
Fiscal Meltdown
USA Today
"The match that lit this fire," McCain said, came from the government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which backed risky home loans "with the encouragement of Sen. Obama and his cronies … in Washington."
Obama shot back: "The biggest problem was the deregulation of the financial system. … Sen. McCain, as recently as March, bragged about the fact that he is a deregulator."
It was a classic example of Washington finger-pointing. McCain and the GOP blame Fannie and Freddie — which were taken over by the government last month — because the troubled mortgage agencies' biggest backers were Democrats who said they wanted to increase access to homeownership.
Meanwhile, Obama and other Democrats highlight Republicans' longtime focus on limiting regulations for the financial industry.
No single government decision sparked the crisis, but collectively the candidates had a point: Both parties in Congress played important roles in setting the stage for the ongoing financial meltdown.
They did so in moves that reflected not just their ideological priorities, but also the wishes of special interests that have spent millions aggressively lobbying Washington and contributing to lawmakers' campaigns.
By not reining in increasingly risky investments made by Fannie and Freddie — and by keeping complex financial instruments known as derivatives free from most government oversight — Congress chose not to impose barriers that economists widely agree could have helped stave off the crisis that continues, even after lawmakers approved a $700 billion emergency bailout package for Wall Street.
Here is a look at how Congress' actions on two key fronts became significant factors in the financial crisis:
1. Not checking derivatives
In 2000, a united financial services industry persuaded Congress to allow a vast, unregulated market in derivatives, which are contracts in which investors essentially bet on the future price of a stock, commodity, mortgage-backed security or other thing of value.
Derivatives — so named because their value derives from something else — also are known as hedges, swaps and futures. They are designed to lower risks for buyers and sellers, but in some cases, economists now say, they gave investors a false sense of security.
Today, derivatives are compounding the risks to a shaky economy because they are tied to complex mortgage securities that have plummeted in value. Instruments called credit default swaps, for example, were supposed to insure investors against default of mortgage-backed securities. With a mass collapse of those bonds, it's not clear how the swaps can pay off.
The ultimate fear, as Fortune magazine put it, is that swaps can cause "a financial Ebola virus radiating out from a failed institution and infecting dozens or hundreds of other companies."
Derivatives are traded privately, and their estimated notional value is huge: $531 trillion. Losses from derivatives helped bring down Wall Street powerhouse Lehman Bros., and led the government to spend nearly $123 billion so far bailing out the giant insurer AIG.
The bill barring most regulation of derivative trading was inserted into an 11,000-page budget measure that became law as the nation was focused on the disputed 2000 presidential election. It was sponsored by Republican Sens. Phil Gramm of Texas and Richard Lugar of Indiana — with support from Democrats, the Clinton administration and then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. Few opposed it.
Sen. Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat who help negotiate the bill for Democrats, says he put aside his qualms because Wall Street and Greenspan were adamant that less regulation would help the stock market.
"All of the Wall Street crowd, all of the investment firms, the Morgan Stanleys, the Goldman Sachs … that steamroller just rolled over anything," he says. Wall Street promised to police itself "and Congress bought it."
Better regulation could have provided greater transparency and ensured that enough collateral was in place for derivatives to meet their obligations, says economist Susan Wachter of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "It's totally obvious in retrospect that this was not good public policy," she says.
But a decade ago, many saw derivatives as a way to smooth the gears of free-market capitalism. That's why the financial industry was alarmed in March 1998, when a little-known agency called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sought to regulate derivatives.
Financiers erupted. They feared the plan would invalidate existing contracts, and they argued derivatives often were uniquely tailored hedges against risk that could not abide one-size-fits-all rules. Greenspan, then-Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Arthur Levitt and then-Treasury secretary Robert Rubin said in a statement they had "grave concerns" about regulating such agreements.
A report by President Clinton's economic team recommended against regulation. At congressional hearings, Greenspan argued that sophisticated market players would check one another, and if derivatives were regulated here such investments would go overseas.
A bill barring derivatives from being regulated as futures contracts passed the House in October 2000, by a vote of 377-4.
But Gramm, chairman of the banking committee, was not satisfied. Gramm told USA TODAY at the time he wanted language making clear that banking products could not be regulated by the commodities agency. After the fall election, leaders of both parties cut a deal and in December 2000 inserted it in the budget bill.
"The work of this Congress will be seen as a watershed, where we turned away from the outmoded, Depression-era approach to financial regulation," Gramm said then.
The wall against regulation was a watershed in another way. Financial services employees and political action committees made $308.6 million in political donations in 2000, up from $175 million in the previous presidential election year, says the Center for Responsive Politics. Wall Street and the banking, insurance and real estate industries spent $3.2 billion on lobbying in the past decade, the center reports. AIG spent $73 million.
More than a quarter of the $3.9 million in campaign money Gramm raised from 1997 through 2002 came from the financial services sector, and nine of his top 10 donors, grouped by economic interest, were employees of financial companies that use or trade in derivatives, according to election records compiled by the center.
Gramm, who left office in 2003 and went to work for UBS, was a top economic adviser to GOP presidential nominee John McCain until he stepped down in July after saying the USA had become "a nation of whiners" about the economy.
Noting that he has always favored deregulation, Gramm scoffs at the idea he was influenced by campaign money. The derivatives provision didn't cause the credit collapse, he adds.
"The crisis was caused by government," Gramm says. He cites the Community Reinvestment Act, which he says "forced banks to make subprime (mortgage) loans" to people who couldn't afford them.
Democrats, including Harkin, and many economic analysts dispute that. As for what he learned, Harkin says, "Don't pay attention to Wall Street when it comes to issues like this."
2. Protecting Fannie, Freddie
In 2005, Congress rejected a Republican-sponsored bill aimed at curbing risky investments by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, thanks to resistance from mostly Democrats. It was the latest in a string of unsuccessful attempts to rein in the two agencies. In this case, Congress ignored Greenspan's warning about the financial risks Fannie and Freddie were taking on.
The agencies were designed to expand homeownership by injecting money into the home mortgage market and encouraging banks to lend more. They buy loans from banks and guarantee them, holding some in their portfolios and selling others as mortgage-backed securities.
With implicit government backing, Fannie and Freddie have been able to borrow money at below-market rates. In recent years, the companies borrowed to buy billions' worth of complex mortgage-backed securities. The investments earned big returns. Fannie and Freddie's stock soared. Their executives were paid tens of millions of dollars.
Republicans sought to reduce the size of the companies' portfolios, arguing they were too risky.
Then the housing bubble burst. Fannie and Freddie didn't cause the financial meltdown, but they fueled it by becoming one of the biggest purchasers of toxic mortgage products, says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff.
"There was tremendous coddling of Fannie and Freddie in the face of a lot of evidence that they really weren't helping homeowners all that much," Rogoff says. "I think it was very, very clear what was coming, and that they were a huge, huge risk to the American financial system. … It really was criminal neglect."
Fannie and Freddie spent $175 million on lobbying in the last decade, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The companies' employees and PACs gave nearly $5 million in contributions since 1989, by the center's count.
Until they were taken over, Fannie had 13 lobbying firms on its payroll this year; Freddie had 33. Both packed their boards with politically connected people such as Democrat Rahm Emanuel, a former Clinton aide who joined Freddie's board in 2000 before he became a congressman. Both hired well-connected lobbyists such as Rick Davis, now McCain's campaign manager.
In seeking to crack down on Fannie and Freddie, Republicans were encouraged by banks that didn't want government-subsidized competition. But there also was a chorus of warnings that the highly leveraged corporations could pose a risk to the economy.
In 2003 and 2004, both companies were wracked by accounting scandals that led to the ouster of top managers.
In 2005, Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., sponsored legislation to shrink the agencies' portfolios. McCain later added his name as a co-sponsor. The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee, but every panel Democrat voted against it. That signaled that the bill wouldn't get the 60 votes needed to pass in the Senate. Obama was not on the banking panel; there is no record of him doing anything on the bill.
Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., a senior member of the banking committee, is the largest recipient of political contributions from Fannie and Freddie employees and PACs, having received $165,400 since 1989, according to the center.
Dodd said he backed Fannie and Freddie because they encouraged homeownership. "I've never ever in my life been affected by a campaign contribution," he said in an interview. He noted that when he became banking committee chairman, he helped pass a bill restricting mortgage agencies' investment practices in 2007. By then, it was too late to stop the financial disaster.
In the House, Republicans and Democrats agreed on a different bill that passed easily. But the Bush administration opposed it, calling it weak. The effort failed.
The next year, Freddie Mac paid the largest election fine ever, $3.8 million, after regulators found it used corporate funds illegally to pay for fundraisers. From 2000 to 2003, Freddie Mac held 85 events that raised $1.7 million, mostly for Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee, regulators found.
Rep. Barney Frank, then the ranking Democrat on financial services and now the chairman, says he and his colleagues were not soft on Fannie and Freddie. "Yes, they lobbied strongly, but I was one of the most successful ones in challenging them."
Frank had no apologies. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., by contrast, offered a rare Washington mea culpa: "Like a lot of my Democratic colleagues, I was too slow to appreciate the recklessness of Fannie and Freddie," he said in a statement. "Frankly, I wish my Democratic colleagues would admit, when it comes to Fannie and Freddie, we were wrong."
هذه المقال يكشف أن الجمهوريون والديمقراطيون على حد سواء ساهموا في خلق المشكلة.
واضيف من عندي أن السبب في هذا يتعلق بالوقت أساساً
Time-Scope
Long-Term vs. Short Term Interests
بين المديرين وبين الشركات التي يعملون فيها!
فيتساهل المديرون في سياسات القروض حتى يحصلون على البوانص الكبيرة، وهم يعلمون أن المؤسسات قد تتعرض لمخاطر ضخمة من جراء تلك السياسات، لكنهم يعلمون أيضاً أن مثل تلك المشاكل سوف تأخذ أعواماً طويلة حتى تظهر على السطح، وفي ذلك الوقت يكونوا هم قد تركوا العمل وتقاعدوا ليستمتعوا بالملايين التي حصدوها كبونص.
وحتى حملة الأسهم من المضاربين، فهم قد يتغاضون عن مثل تلك السياسات الخرقاء، لأنهم يريدون الحصول على عائد رأسمالي سريع من خلال بيع الأسهم بعد أن ترتفع أسعارها بصورة مؤقتة، ولهذا أقول أن المشكلة هي في مسألة الالتزام الوقتي، فلا يوجد أي تمييز بين المستثمر الذي يضع أمواله في إحدى الشركات لأعوام طويلة، وآخر يضارب بتلك الأسهم ويبيعها ويشتريها بصورة يومية، وعدم وجود هذا التمييز قد يؤدي إلى سياسات تبدو ناجحة على المدى القصير ولكنها تؤدي للخراب على المدى الطويل لأنها تفتقد للتوازن.
يكون دوراً رقابياً في الأساس، حتى يتأكد أن الضوابط المتفق عليها مع حملة الأسهم بمختلف اهتماماتهم وتنوع مصالحهم على المدى القصير والطويل يتم تطبيقها بصورة صحيحة.
ووجود المراقب الحكومي مهم أيضاً نتيجة مشاكل تتعلق بمراقب الحسابات
Auditing Firms
من الشركات الخاصة، فتلك الشركات تحصل على أتعابها من المديرين بصورة أو بأخرى، وبالتالي فهل تعمل لصالح حملة الأسهم والمجتمع، أم تتستر على أخطاء الشركات والتلاعب في القوائم المالية والفساد الداخلي مثلما حدث مع "أرثر أندرسون" وإنرون منذ سنوات قليلة.
بالأمس فقط تفجرت قضية جديدة، وهو أن المؤسسات المالية التي حصلت على دعم حكومي فيدرالي لتعويمها وإنقاذها قدره 700 بليون دولار، أن 4 فقط من هذه المؤسسات على سبيل المثال خصصت مبالغ قدرها 61 بليون دولار حوافز ومكافآت ومرتبات لموظفيها !
How Congress set the stage
for a fiscal meltdown
By Ken Dilanian, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — During last week's presidential debate, John McCain and Barack Obama sparred over what caused the financial crisis.
By Ken Dilanian, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — During last week's presidential debate, John McCain and Barack Obama sparred over what caused the financial crisis.
"The match that lit this fire," McCain said, came from the government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which backed risky home loans "with the encouragement of Sen. Obama and his cronies … in Washington."
Obama shot back: "The biggest problem was the deregulation of the financial system. … Sen. McCain, as recently as March, bragged about the fact that he is a deregulator."
It was a classic example of Washington finger-pointing. McCain and the GOP blame Fannie and Freddie — which were taken over by the government last month — because the troubled mortgage agencies' biggest backers were Democrats who said they wanted to increase access to homeownership.
Meanwhile, Obama and other Democrats highlight Republicans' longtime focus on limiting regulations for the financial industry.
No single government decision sparked the crisis, but collectively the candidates had a point: Both parties in Congress played important roles in setting the stage for the ongoing financial meltdown.
They did so in moves that reflected not just their ideological priorities, but also the wishes of special interests that have spent millions aggressively lobbying Washington and contributing to lawmakers' campaigns.
By not reining in increasingly risky investments made by Fannie and Freddie — and by keeping complex financial instruments known as derivatives free from most government oversight — Congress chose not to impose barriers that economists widely agree could have helped stave off the crisis that continues, even after lawmakers approved a $700 billion emergency bailout package for Wall Street.
Here is a look at how Congress' actions on two key fronts became significant factors in the financial crisis:
1. Not checking derivatives
In 2000, a united financial services industry persuaded Congress to allow a vast, unregulated market in derivatives, which are contracts in which investors essentially bet on the future price of a stock, commodity, mortgage-backed security or other thing of value.
Derivatives — so named because their value derives from something else — also are known as hedges, swaps and futures. They are designed to lower risks for buyers and sellers, but in some cases, economists now say, they gave investors a false sense of security.
Today, derivatives are compounding the risks to a shaky economy because they are tied to complex mortgage securities that have plummeted in value. Instruments called credit default swaps, for example, were supposed to insure investors against default of mortgage-backed securities. With a mass collapse of those bonds, it's not clear how the swaps can pay off.
The ultimate fear, as Fortune magazine put it, is that swaps can cause "a financial Ebola virus radiating out from a failed institution and infecting dozens or hundreds of other companies."
Derivatives are traded privately, and their estimated notional value is huge: $531 trillion. Losses from derivatives helped bring down Wall Street powerhouse Lehman Bros., and led the government to spend nearly $123 billion so far bailing out the giant insurer AIG.
The bill barring most regulation of derivative trading was inserted into an 11,000-page budget measure that became law as the nation was focused on the disputed 2000 presidential election. It was sponsored by Republican Sens. Phil Gramm of Texas and Richard Lugar of Indiana — with support from Democrats, the Clinton administration and then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. Few opposed it.
Sen. Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat who help negotiate the bill for Democrats, says he put aside his qualms because Wall Street and Greenspan were adamant that less regulation would help the stock market.
"All of the Wall Street crowd, all of the investment firms, the Morgan Stanleys, the Goldman Sachs … that steamroller just rolled over anything," he says. Wall Street promised to police itself "and Congress bought it."
Better regulation could have provided greater transparency and ensured that enough collateral was in place for derivatives to meet their obligations, says economist Susan Wachter of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "It's totally obvious in retrospect that this was not good public policy," she says.
But a decade ago, many saw derivatives as a way to smooth the gears of free-market capitalism. That's why the financial industry was alarmed in March 1998, when a little-known agency called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sought to regulate derivatives.
Financiers erupted. They feared the plan would invalidate existing contracts, and they argued derivatives often were uniquely tailored hedges against risk that could not abide one-size-fits-all rules. Greenspan, then-Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Arthur Levitt and then-Treasury secretary Robert Rubin said in a statement they had "grave concerns" about regulating such agreements.
A report by President Clinton's economic team recommended against regulation. At congressional hearings, Greenspan argued that sophisticated market players would check one another, and if derivatives were regulated here such investments would go overseas.
A bill barring derivatives from being regulated as futures contracts passed the House in October 2000, by a vote of 377-4.
But Gramm, chairman of the banking committee, was not satisfied. Gramm told USA TODAY at the time he wanted language making clear that banking products could not be regulated by the commodities agency. After the fall election, leaders of both parties cut a deal and in December 2000 inserted it in the budget bill.
"The work of this Congress will be seen as a watershed, where we turned away from the outmoded, Depression-era approach to financial regulation," Gramm said then.
The wall against regulation was a watershed in another way. Financial services employees and political action committees made $308.6 million in political donations in 2000, up from $175 million in the previous presidential election year, says the Center for Responsive Politics. Wall Street and the banking, insurance and real estate industries spent $3.2 billion on lobbying in the past decade, the center reports. AIG spent $73 million.
More than a quarter of the $3.9 million in campaign money Gramm raised from 1997 through 2002 came from the financial services sector, and nine of his top 10 donors, grouped by economic interest, were employees of financial companies that use or trade in derivatives, according to election records compiled by the center.
Gramm, who left office in 2003 and went to work for UBS, was a top economic adviser to GOP presidential nominee John McCain until he stepped down in July after saying the USA had become "a nation of whiners" about the economy.
Noting that he has always favored deregulation, Gramm scoffs at the idea he was influenced by campaign money. The derivatives provision didn't cause the credit collapse, he adds.
"The crisis was caused by government," Gramm says. He cites the Community Reinvestment Act, which he says "forced banks to make subprime (mortgage) loans" to people who couldn't afford them.
Democrats, including Harkin, and many economic analysts dispute that. As for what he learned, Harkin says, "Don't pay attention to Wall Street when it comes to issues like this."
2. Protecting Fannie, Freddie
In 2005, Congress rejected a Republican-sponsored bill aimed at curbing risky investments by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, thanks to resistance from mostly Democrats. It was the latest in a string of unsuccessful attempts to rein in the two agencies. In this case, Congress ignored Greenspan's warning about the financial risks Fannie and Freddie were taking on.
The agencies were designed to expand homeownership by injecting money into the home mortgage market and encouraging banks to lend more. They buy loans from banks and guarantee them, holding some in their portfolios and selling others as mortgage-backed securities.
With implicit government backing, Fannie and Freddie have been able to borrow money at below-market rates. In recent years, the companies borrowed to buy billions' worth of complex mortgage-backed securities. The investments earned big returns. Fannie and Freddie's stock soared. Their executives were paid tens of millions of dollars.
Republicans sought to reduce the size of the companies' portfolios, arguing they were too risky.
Then the housing bubble burst. Fannie and Freddie didn't cause the financial meltdown, but they fueled it by becoming one of the biggest purchasers of toxic mortgage products, says Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff.
"There was tremendous coddling of Fannie and Freddie in the face of a lot of evidence that they really weren't helping homeowners all that much," Rogoff says. "I think it was very, very clear what was coming, and that they were a huge, huge risk to the American financial system. … It really was criminal neglect."
Fannie and Freddie spent $175 million on lobbying in the last decade, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The companies' employees and PACs gave nearly $5 million in contributions since 1989, by the center's count.
Until they were taken over, Fannie had 13 lobbying firms on its payroll this year; Freddie had 33. Both packed their boards with politically connected people such as Democrat Rahm Emanuel, a former Clinton aide who joined Freddie's board in 2000 before he became a congressman. Both hired well-connected lobbyists such as Rick Davis, now McCain's campaign manager.
In seeking to crack down on Fannie and Freddie, Republicans were encouraged by banks that didn't want government-subsidized competition. But there also was a chorus of warnings that the highly leveraged corporations could pose a risk to the economy.
In 2003 and 2004, both companies were wracked by accounting scandals that led to the ouster of top managers.
In 2005, Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., sponsored legislation to shrink the agencies' portfolios. McCain later added his name as a co-sponsor. The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee, but every panel Democrat voted against it. That signaled that the bill wouldn't get the 60 votes needed to pass in the Senate. Obama was not on the banking panel; there is no record of him doing anything on the bill.
Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., a senior member of the banking committee, is the largest recipient of political contributions from Fannie and Freddie employees and PACs, having received $165,400 since 1989, according to the center.
Dodd said he backed Fannie and Freddie because they encouraged homeownership. "I've never ever in my life been affected by a campaign contribution," he said in an interview. He noted that when he became banking committee chairman, he helped pass a bill restricting mortgage agencies' investment practices in 2007. By then, it was too late to stop the financial disaster.
In the House, Republicans and Democrats agreed on a different bill that passed easily. But the Bush administration opposed it, calling it weak. The effort failed.
The next year, Freddie Mac paid the largest election fine ever, $3.8 million, after regulators found it used corporate funds illegally to pay for fundraisers. From 2000 to 2003, Freddie Mac held 85 events that raised $1.7 million, mostly for Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee, regulators found.
Rep. Barney Frank, then the ranking Democrat on financial services and now the chairman, says he and his colleagues were not soft on Fannie and Freddie. "Yes, they lobbied strongly, but I was one of the most successful ones in challenging them."
Frank had no apologies. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., by contrast, offered a rare Washington mea culpa: "Like a lot of my Democratic colleagues, I was too slow to appreciate the recklessness of Fannie and Freddie," he said in a statement. "Frankly, I wish my Democratic colleagues would admit, when it comes to Fannie and Freddie, we were wrong."
Original Source:
تعليق عام
مسألة وقت
A Matter of Time
And Commitment
هذه المقال يكشف أن الجمهوريون والديمقراطيون على حد سواء ساهموا في خلق المشكلة.
ويكشف أن ملكية الحكومة للشركات والبنوك يفسد الأمور أكثر مما يصلحها.
ولكنه أيضاً يكشف أنه لا يمكن الاعتماد الكامل على قوى السوق في تنظيم نفسها بنفسها.
واضيف من عندي أن السبب في هذا يتعلق بالوقت أساساً
Time-Scope
Long-Term vs. Short Term Interests
وبتضارب المصالح
Conflict of Interestsبين المديرين وبين الشركات التي يعملون فيها!
فلا شك لدي أن السوق كمنظومة متزنة، إذا تأكدنا من وجود آليات الاتزان وحيويتها، فهذه الآليات تعطي النظام القدرة على التصحيح الذاتي، لكن هذا التصحيح ليس ضرورياً أن يحدث بصورة سريعة، بل يمكن نتيجة لفساد البعض أن يحجب التقارير أو يتغاضى عن الضوابط من أجل تحقيق أرباح سريعة أو الحصول على بونص كبير، فتتراكم الأخطاء، وفي النهاية هؤلاء المديرون يحصلون على الملايين كحوافز على زيادة القروض، وبالتالي فهناك تضارب في المصالح بينهم وبين مصالح حملة الأسهم، أصحاب المال الحقيقيون.
فيتساهل المديرون في سياسات القروض حتى يحصلون على البوانص الكبيرة، وهم يعلمون أن المؤسسات قد تتعرض لمخاطر ضخمة من جراء تلك السياسات، لكنهم يعلمون أيضاً أن مثل تلك المشاكل سوف تأخذ أعواماً طويلة حتى تظهر على السطح، وفي ذلك الوقت يكونوا هم قد تركوا العمل وتقاعدوا ليستمتعوا بالملايين التي حصدوها كبونص.
وحتى حملة الأسهم من المضاربين، فهم قد يتغاضون عن مثل تلك السياسات الخرقاء، لأنهم يريدون الحصول على عائد رأسمالي سريع من خلال بيع الأسهم بعد أن ترتفع أسعارها بصورة مؤقتة، ولهذا أقول أن المشكلة هي في مسألة الالتزام الوقتي، فلا يوجد أي تمييز بين المستثمر الذي يضع أمواله في إحدى الشركات لأعوام طويلة، وآخر يضارب بتلك الأسهم ويبيعها ويشتريها بصورة يومية، وعدم وجود هذا التمييز قد يؤدي إلى سياسات تبدو ناجحة على المدى القصير ولكنها تؤدي للخراب على المدى الطويل لأنها تفتقد للتوازن.
هنا يأتي دور المنظم
Regulatorيكون دوراً رقابياً في الأساس، حتى يتأكد أن الضوابط المتفق عليها مع حملة الأسهم بمختلف اهتماماتهم وتنوع مصالحهم على المدى القصير والطويل يتم تطبيقها بصورة صحيحة.
ووجود المراقب الحكومي مهم أيضاً نتيجة مشاكل تتعلق بمراقب الحسابات
Auditing Firms
من الشركات الخاصة، فتلك الشركات تحصل على أتعابها من المديرين بصورة أو بأخرى، وبالتالي فهل تعمل لصالح حملة الأسهم والمجتمع، أم تتستر على أخطاء الشركات والتلاعب في القوائم المالية والفساد الداخلي مثلما حدث مع "أرثر أندرسون" وإنرون منذ سنوات قليلة.
بالأمس فقط تفجرت قضية جديدة، وهو أن المؤسسات المالية التي حصلت على دعم حكومي فيدرالي لتعويمها وإنقاذها قدره 700 بليون دولار، أن 4 فقط من هذه المؤسسات على سبيل المثال خصصت مبالغ قدرها 61 بليون دولار حوافز ومكافآت ومرتبات لموظفيها !
والبعض تساءل، هل يستحق مديرو تلك المؤسسات هذه الحوافز الضخمة وفي هذا التوقيت؟
Archives 2003
Egyptian Pound: Float or Sink
الرسوم المسيئة - الجنيه المصري - تعويم أم تغريق
من أرشيف 2003
مجلة "معاً"
بمناسبة الأزمة الاقتصادية العالمية التي نمر بها الآن، تذكرت موقفاً مشابهاً تعرضنا له في مصر في يناير 2003 مع قرار تعويم الجنيه المصري.
في عام 2002 أسسنا مجلة لجمعية "شباب الأعمال" EJB تحت عنوان "معاً". وكنت أنا أحد مؤسسي الجمعية منذ عام 1993، وخلال أعوام 2000 - 2004 كنت عضواً بمجلس إدارة الجمعية ومقرراً للجنة الميديا. وفي الواقع بدأت المجلة كنشرة غير دورية أو Newsletter ولكننا في لجنة الميديا صممنا أن تكون المجلة على مستو عال من الحرفية الصحفية، فبذلنا مجهوداً كبيراً في الإعداد لها واستغرقنا عدة شهور في البحث عن اسم مناسب وتطوير صيغة صحفية مناسبة. وكانت هناك اسماء كثيرة مقترحة وعندما اقترحت عنوان "معاً" كان غير تقليدي بالمرة أن يأتي اسم مجلة أو صحيفة في صورة "حال" مع غياب الجملة أو الفعل، ولكن الزملاء أعجبوا بالاسم وبدأنا العمل بدون محررين محترفين تقريباً، وجاءت المادة كلها من مشاركات من أعضاء الجمعية.
وفي يناير 2003 ومع قرار تعويم الجنيه المصري الذي جاء متأخراً حوالي 8 سنوات من العند الحكومي، أصدرت الحكومة القرار ولكنها في نفس الوقت اصدرت تعليمات من نحن الترابيزة للبنوك بعدم بيع العملات الأجنبية للجمهور، فجاء هذا بمثابة قرار بتغريق الجنيه لا تعويمه، ومن هنا جاء العدد الجديد من مجلة معاً والمقال الافتتاحي تحت عنوان "الجنيه المصري: تعويم لا تغريق". وأعددنا غلافاً رائعاً للمجلة بريشة الفنان ياسر جعيصة يصور النظام في وضع الإبحار الذي تراه في الصورة، كما ساهم الفنان ياسر جعيصة والفنان اسامة أبو العلا بعدة رسوم كارتونية أخرى تعلق على هذا الموقف الاقتصادي بريشة ساخرة.
وكان تقديرنا أن غلاف هذا العدد سيأتي بمثابة "قنبلة" تجعل مجتمع الأعمال في مصر كلها يتحدث عن المجلة وعن الجمعية بصورة تؤكد دورها في متابعة القضايا الاقتصادية بصورة متحررة وجريئة، بما يدعم الاهتمام بالجمعية ويدعم تنمية العضوية بها.
وقبل إصدار العدد، رأيت من باب اللياقة أن نطلع مجلس الإدارة على الماكيت، وبالفعل بعثت بالماكيت مع المنسق الإعلامي للجمعية، وما أن رأى الصديق " ... ..." - وكان وقتها رئيس مجلس إدارة الجمعية - ماكيت الغلاف، حتى ثارت ثائرته وأصر أنه إما هو وإما صدور هذا العدد بهذا الغلاف "المستفز" على حد تعبيره.
وأسقط في يدي، فلم يكن سهلاً على نفسي أن اقوم بتغيير الغلاف الرائع أو أن أقبل الرقابة على مادة صحفية قمت بالاشتراك في إعدادها، ولكنني بعد تفكير قصير أدركت أن رجال الأعمال سواء كانهوا شباباً أم كهولاً لا يمكن أن يقبلوا بالصدام مع النظام بهذه الطريقة، لأن في النهاية لهم مصالح لا يمكن أن يقبلوا المخاطرة بها. وصدرت المجلة بدون الغلاف، وفي الأعدلد التالية استمرت المضايقات "الأمنية" والتعليقات حول الأغلفة وما يجب أن يكتب وما يجب أن يحذف، ولكنني في الأعداد التالية استطعت أن أقنع بعض زملائي داخل مجلس الإدارة والجمعية بوجهة نظري وقناعتي، بأن وجود مجلة قوية ومستقلة ومتوازنة مهم للجمعية ويساعد على تنمية العضوية ويفيد أيضاً من هم في موقع صنع القرار الاقتصادي، عندما يستمعون للرأي الآخر، فجاءت العديد من الأعداد التالية بمقالات قوية مثل "البحث عن رؤية" الذي كان له صدى قوي وأعيد نشره في صحيفة المصري اليوم على صفحة كاملة، وكان من أوائل المقالات التي تتناول ضرورة التغيير الدستوري وتداول السلطة وتتناول مؤسسة الرئاسة بصورة مباشرة، حيث كان العرف وقتها هو نقد الوزراء ورؤساء الوزراء دون ذكر الرئيس من قريب ولا من بعيد، وكذلك كان من الممنوع استخدام كلمة "التغيير" في أي مقال، فجاء تلك المقال في يونيو 2004 يحمل عنواناً فرعياً "التغيير الآن"!
وفي كل الأحوال ورغم الشد والجذب، استمتعت برئاسة تحرير مجلة "معاً" إلى أن تركتها في عام 2006 بعد إصدار ما يقرب من 10 أعداد.
وفي الواقع تحولت جمعية شباب الأعمال للأسف في أغلبها إلى تابع للحزب الوطني، واصبحت الذراع الاقتصادية للجنة السياسات، وفي المقابل نال الكثير من أعضاء الجمعية الحظوة لدى الحكومة وعينوا في مراكز مهمة في الوزارات والبنوك الكبرى ومؤسسات التنمية الصناعية والتكنولوجية وتحديث الصناعة ومجالس إدارات شركات قطاع الأعمال وغيرها، كما حصل الكثيرون على المكافآت السخية من أراض بسعر التراب وامتيازات لإقامة المدن الصناعية Industrial Estates ومشروعات أخرى ببلايين الجنيهات بالأمر المباشر وإنا لله وإنا إليه راجعون على زمن البراءة في الجمعية التي بدأت بمجموعة من الشباب الذين كانوا يطمحون في الإصلاح، تسلل إليها المتسلقون والباحثون عن التربح من القرب من السلطة ليضخوا في عروقها فيروس الفساد المركز ويفتحوا الأعين المغمضة على ضرورة "استغلال السلطة".
على أي حال، اضع بين أيديكم هذه الرسومات التي رأى البعض أنها "مسيئة" إلى النظام ورموز النظام وأترك الحكم لكم عليها وعلى هذا المقال الذي أوحى بتلك الرسومات المسيئة، وأرجو أن تستغفر الله قبل وبعد قراءة المقال ومطالعة الرسوم المسيئة.
الجنيه المصري ... تعـويم ... لا تغـريق!
أول درس في العوم هو الثقة. الثقة في النفس، والثقة في مدرب العوم، والثقة في رجل إغريقي توفي منذ آلاف السنين اسمه أرشميدس، وفي نظرية الطفو التي اكتشفها، والثقة في أن الماء سمع عن تلك النظرية ويوافق على تنفيذها حتى في أوقات العطلات الرسمية، وهي الأوقات التي عادة ما نعوم فيها. وقبل كل شيء، لابد من رسوخ الثقة في الله سبحانه وتعالى، وفي أن حوض السباحة خال من أسماك القرش ماركة الفك المفترس، لعن الله ذلك الفيلم الذي لا زال يرعبني شخصياً فور أن يمسني الماء، بما في ذلك ماء البانيو أو عندما أشرب بعد تناول حبوب دواء الضغط، الذي تحالف مع الدولار في ارتفاعه، ونتج عنه التهاب في الجيوب الخلفية الخاصة بالمحفظة، والتي تعاني أساساً من الأنيميا الحادة.
لقد سعدنا جميعاً بقرار الحكومة لتحرير أسعار صرف العملات الأجنبية، الشهيرة بالصعبة سابقاً، والمعروفة بالخفية حالياً، لأنها لا تظهر للناس العاديين، ويلزم لتحضيرها جلب كميات كبيرة من الجنيه المصري، والتوسل لشيوخ المنسر من أباطرة السوق السوداء من بختنا. ونظراً لأن ذلك القرار طال انتظاره، فقد هللنا له جميعاً، لأن تحرير سعر الدولار يضمن اختفاء السوق السوداء، ويزيد من تنافسية المنتجات المصرية محلياً وعالمياً، ويساعد على تحقيق التوازن بين الصادرات والواردات.
لقد عانى الاقتصاد من اختلال في سعر الصرف، خلال السنوات الأربعة الماضية، أدى لاستنزاف جزء كبير من احتياطي البنك المركزي من الدولار، وجاء استنزاف الاحتياطي النقدي أساساً لتمويل متطلبات الاستيراد، مما شكل تدعيماً من الحكومة للاستيراد - أي تدعيماً لصادرات الدول الأخرى – طبعاً لأننا أولاد عز وجميعاً من بيوت كرم ونحب نجامل الغرباء.
وفي الفترة من 1998 إلى 2002، عندما بدأ البنك المركزي يشعر أن استـنـزاف احتياطي النقد الأجنبي قد أصبح اتجاهاً ثابتاً، وأن ما يحدث ليس مجرد اهتزازات في السوق صعوداً وهبوطاً، بدأ "يقبض يده" ويتباطأ في مد البنوك والأسواق باحتياجاتها من العملات الأجنبية، مما أدى لنقص خطير في العملة الأجنبية، ومع سياسة "التسعيرة الجبرية" لسعر الصرف، فقد عادت السوق السوداء لتطل علينا برأسها القبيح ذي القرون، ونظراً لإغلاق معظم شركات الصرافة، فقد بدأ يظهر سوق العملة البيتي، "ولابد أن تتذوق قطعة من صينية المكرونة بشاميل صنع أيدي المدام ولا ليك علي حلفان" قبل أن تحصل على العشرة آلاف دولار المطلوبة لزوم استيراد قطع الغيار أو مستلزمات الإنتاج. يعني خراب بيوت ووجع بطن.
ولذلك، هللنا جميعاً عندما سمعنا بأخبار تحرير أسعار الصرف، وهو ما سمي بتعويم الجنيه. ولكن لأن قليل البخت يبتلى بالعظم في الكرشة، فقد رمت الحكومة الجنيه بنية تعويمه، ثم يبدو أنها غيرت رأيها، ربما لأن الدنيا شتاء والمياه ساقعة جداً مثل الدش البارد الذي نزل على رءوسنا جميعاً، وربما لأن الحكومة نفسها لا تعرف العوم، أو لا تثق في أن الماء قد سمع عن قانون الطفو الذي أطلقه عم أرشميدس. وبالمناسبة، فإن ثاني درس في العوم هو ضرب الماء بهدوء وتناسق والابتعاد عن التضبيش. فالتضبيش يرهق العضلات ويصيب المضبشاتي بكرشة نفس، تنتهي به إلى التعب والاستسلام فالغرق والعياذ بالله.
ورغم قرار التعويم، فقد ظل الدولار من العملات الخفية مثل الأشباح، ويا خفي الألطاف نجنا مما نخاف. واتضح أن موضوع التعويم "بكش" وأن السوق السوداء قد أصبحت مثل أمنا الغولة لا ترحم أحداً، فزاد سعر الدولار من 5 جنيه لما يقرب الـ 7 جنيهات، مما يعني أن صينية المكرونة سوف تكون محشوة باللحمة المفرومة. أما اليورو، فحدث ولا حرج، فقد أصبحت عملية استحضاره تتطلب البخور الهندي والعنبر مع خصلة شعر شقراء، أوروبية المنشأ.
وهنا لابد من وقفة ... فالدولار منذ شهر كان سعره في السوق السوداء 5 جنيهات وربع، ووجوده في السوق السوداء بهذا السعر، يعني أن الناس كانوا يبيعونه ويشترونه بنفس هذا السعر ولمدد طويلة وبمبالغ كبيرة ... إذن ذلك السعر كان سعراً واقعياً ... لماذا الآن يرتفع الدولار إلى 7 جنيهات في شهر واحد؟ إنها الثقة. أو بالأصح ... انعدامها. فعندما نسمع عن التعويم، ثم لا نستطيع الحصول على العملات اللازمة للاستيراد، فتأثير ذلك خطير. إن كلمة "تعويم" لها مدلولات كثيرة جدية وخطيرة الأثر، ولا يمكن إطلاقها بسهولة، وعندما تعلنها الحكومة ثم لا تدعمها بقوة، هنا تهتز الثقة في تلك الكلمة وفي أي كلام آخر. هنا أقول أن فرق انعدام الثقة قد أصبح 2 جنيهاً لكل دولار. ومع الشرخ في الثقة، انطلق الناس يكتنزون الدولار، وأصابت حمى الدولار المقاولين، والمرتبطين بعقود طويلة الأجل، والذين يعانون من مديونيات بالعملات الأجنبية، والمستوردين، بل والمدخرين وغير المدخرين. ما هذا السلوك الهمجي؟ هل مصر محل خردوات إذا أصابه الركود سوف نغلقه ونحصل على الجدك أو "خلو رجل"؟ ماذا يفيدنا اكتناز الدولار إذا انهار اقتصادنا والعياذ بالله تحت وطأة هذه التصرفات الغوغائية؟ ألا تكفينا البرطعة في الشوارع وكسر كل قوانين وإشارات المرور، سواء الضوئية أو الصوتية، أو الجسدية أو الخرسانية؟ هل هان علينا مستقبل أولادنا؟ أو بالبلدي، هل "شفنا شوفة" أخرى؟ هل ننوي جميعاً الهجرة؟ وإلى أين يا حسرة؟ المصريون والعرب والمسلمون يعانون الأمرين في كافة دول المهجر، من أخذ بصمات أصابع الأيدي وقريباً الأقدام، إلى خلع الأحذية والتفتيش الذاتي في المطارات بدون سبب. يعني لابد أن نعرف أننا سوف نعيش هنا وسنموت هنا أيضاً. إذا ضاق الإنسان بمسكنه، أو لم تعجبه شقته، فإنه ينتقل لسكن آخر أي "يعزل". هل أنتوينا أن "نعزل"؟ هل نخطط لترك مصر لآخرين يأتون ليعمروها ويستخرجوا من طينها الذهب الذي عجزنا عن رؤيته بسبب ضعف النظر المزمن الذي أصابنا، تحت تأثير الغشاوات والضلالات التي نتجت عن الأنانية وعدم وضوح الرؤية وغلوشة الصورة؟ الصورة الكبيرة التي قوامها أن المصلحة العامة هي أساس المصلحة الخاصة؟
هل نتكالب على الدولار ونترك الجنيه يغرق؟ ماذا يحدث لنا وأي شياطين مستنا وسكنت أرواحنا؟ هل نسينا ما هو الجنيه؟ الجنيه المصري؟ المصري. الجنيه المصري لمن نسى، هو وعاء لقيمتنا، فإن بخسناه ضألت قيمتنا جميعاً. وهذا ليس كلاماً عاطفياً. الجنيه يا سادة هو وعاء تقويم إنتاجنا، أي حساب القيمة التي يضيفها كل منا في عمله وللاقتصاد الوطني. الجنيه "المصري" ليس مجرد ورقة بنية مرسوم عليها جوامع أو نقوش فرعونية. الجنيه المصري رغم العرق والقذارة وبقع الزيت، هو رمز لقيمتنا الاقتصادية، فإذا هانت علينا أنفسنا، فلنهجره ونتكالب على الدولار، ومن لا يستح فليفعل ما يشاء. نعم، نحن مع صرف الجنيه بسعر واقعي، يساعد منتجاتنا الوطنية على المنافسة محلياً وعالمياً. نحن مع وصول الدولار لسعر يضمن اتزان العرض والطلب بين الموارد والاستخدامات. نعم، إن ارتفاع سعر الدولار وارتفاع أسعار بعض السلع المستوردة يضمن أن تقوم آليات السوق بالحد من الاستيراد وتشجيع التصنيع المحلي. ليس من المنطقي أن نستورد الفول المدمس من حدائق كالدونيا، ونشتريه بسعر أقل من الفول المدمس المصري. أولاً هذا معناه أن هناك خطأ ما في عوامل تكلفة التصنيع في مصر بالمقارنة بالدول الأخرى. قد تكون المشكلة في سعر العملة، أو في البيروقراطية، أو المصاريف الخفية، أو غيرها. ولكن هناك شيء خطأ. ببساطة لأن الفول المدمس اختراع مصري، ولأن حباته ضخمة الحجم وسعر شحنه عال، ويخضع للجمارك. فكيف يمكن أن يباع بسعر أقل من أو يقارب مثيله المصري؟ ماذا نفعل الآن؟ علينا جميعاً أن نعود لرشدنا وبسرعة. دعونا نعقد اتفاقاً بين رجال الأعمال والمواطنين والحكومة والوطن. علينا جميعاً كمصدرين ومستوردين أن نقصر تعاملنا على القنوات الشرعية، علينا أن نقول "لا" للسوق السوداء، أن نبيع حصيلتنا الدولارية في البنوك ونصر على فتح اعتماداتنا من البنوك أيضاً. وعلينا كمواطنين أن نبتعد عن الارتباك والفزع واكتناز الدولار. وعلى البنك المركزي أن يقرر، إما الاستمرار في التعويم، وبالتالي الوقوف خلف القرار بقوة وتشجيع الوصول لاتزان بين العرض والطلب عند أسعار صرف واقعية ومعقولة، أو التراجع عنه بصراحة ووضوح وهو ما لا نتمناه. ومرة أخرى نذكر الجميع، من يريد العوم فعليه أن يثق بالماء.
وائل نوارة
فبراير 2003
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