Israel Faces Tough Choices. Change of Government and or Direction is Inevitable

 

Updated 18 May, 2024

After Gallant, Gantz came out today criticizing Netanyahu, saying that the current 'farce' must end and demanded a six-point plan to be laid out by June 8. He also emphasized the importance of reaching diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and a fair system for military draft. This implies that Gantz supports a Palestinian State, since Saudi Arabia made it abundantly clear that no relationship with Israel can happen without a clear path to Palestinian statehood. A new poll shows that Gantz is now ahead of Netanyahu among Israelis. Gantz' visit to the US in March was seen as a gesture that the US was no longer supporting Netanyahu and encourages a change of government in Israel. A few days later Schumer gave his famous speech in the Congress where he said that Netanyahu was an obstacle to peace, that he had lost his way and that he no longer fits Israel's needs. Schumer is the most senior Jewish politician in the US and a long-time supporter of Israel and Netanyahu.
Two days ago,  Gallant, Israeli minister of defense delivered a once-in-a-lifetime speech in a news conference. His words were somber and alarming. (Watch from 10:40 and turn cc subtitles on. It's not accurate but you will get the picture).

This is our duty and responsibility to lead the country to a better place NOW. The State must make difficult decisions by prioritizing the national consideration over any other consideration, even if it involves personal or political costs .This is a moment of national test. The people of Israel are looking up to us and expect us to make the right decisions.

Is Gallant asking Netanyahu to resign? 

Since Gantz' visit to the US, and Schumer's famous speech criticizing Netanyahu, there has been rumors of American-led attempts to oust Netanyahu, who has put his political (and legal) survival above all else. To keep Ben Gvir and the rest of his extremist coalition onboard in the government, he has been appeasing them, with genocidal consequences.

Israel Faces Tough Choices

In a previous article, I suggested that Israel has lost the war. Truth of the matter is, Israel has lost much more than that. Israel is lost. It is very difficult to see a viable path forward. And it is even tougher to write about one.
Israel has been utterly defeated. A total defeat which will shake its very foundations for years, if any. I came to that conclusion because:

• Israel has failed to implement the "final solution" (ethnic cleansing of Gaza through pushing Gazans into the Sinai desert), after Egypt fortified the borders and announced that this will be a red line. Breaching that red line may lead to revoking the Peace Treaty.
• Israel has failed to destroy Hamas. As Israel pushes to the South, Hamas regrouped in the North and the Middle of Gaza.
• Israel has failed to free the hostages. Israel has killed more of its hostages than it has managed to release.
• Strategically, Israel has lost the world's public opinion. The global protests and condemnations, student encampment, and a social media sentiment of about 9:1 against Israel, all point to colossal strategic defeat and very hard times ahead. In fact, Israel's legitimacy, its very existence, is now being questioned.

With these difficult circumstances, Israel was facing very tough choices. But since the last article, more bad news for Israel has emerged.

The Final Solution

To keep his government afloat (and stay out of jail), Netanyahu had to subscribe to the right wing's dream (or nightmare) of the final solution. Ben Gvir and those on his bandwagon, believe that Palestinians must leave. At least to them this campaign is not really about Hamas, Oct 7 or even the hostages. It's about completing the job of ethnic cleansing which started in 1948. Their hope is that with enough pressure, Egypt will open the borders and let them in. They said it publicly so many times. They even suggested that the move will be temporary. But Palestinians of course know, once they are out, they will never see their homes again. Most residents of Gaza are themselves refugees and the descendants of those ethnically cleansed before from other parts of Palestine.

Why Rafah?

Why does Israel insist on invading Rafah, despite many reasons against the invasion:

• It is a very small area, crowding in it are almost one and a half million people. Most of them already evacuated from the North of Gaza or other places. The human cost will be catastrophic, further isolating Israel and entrenching its position as a pariah state.  
• Hamas has already regrouped in the North. So, why would Israel go after them in the South?
• The whole world is warning Israel not to do it. Even Biden stopped one arms shipment as a result of Netanyahu's stubbornness on the Rafah issue.

In my opinion, the reason why Israel is determined to invade Rafah, can be understood from its 1948 ethnic cleansing tactics. A village would be attacked from 3 directions, leaving a safe exit which the evicted residents could take, usually pointing to the nearest border.  
It is the same with Rafah. Rafah is the closest point in Gaza to the Egyptian border. By intensifying the attacks on Rafah, a humanitarian catastrophe will unfold, and Egypt will find itself forced to open the borders for humanitarian reasons. At least, this is what the 
settler extremists were hoping for.

Egypt Refused to 'Play Ball'

But Egypt 'refused' to play ball, and instead, announced that this is a red line not to be crossed. Crossing that line will mean suspending or revoking the Peace Treaty and worse. Egypt has since intervened in the ICJ genocide case, joining South Africa. Egyptian officials also made sure to clearly communicate the message to the Americans and Europeans. Pushing Gazans into Sinai is not to happen. 

More Bad News

The last few days carried very bad news for Israel. 
Somehow, Hamas has managed to regroup its forces in the North (in areas which Israel had bulldozed) and the Middle of Gaza and has been attacking Israeli forces with devastating blows.
Israeli losses are huge. And things seem to be getting worse, not better. The situation, militarily and strategically, is untenable. This must have contributed to why Gallant has made this speech.
The only achievement which Israel has been able to do, was to destroy Gaza, kill and injure over 110,000 people, majority are women and children, which has turned the world public opinion against it and sent it to the International Court of Justice and ICC.
To make things even worse, the news suggest that International Criminal Court (ICC) may issue arrest warrants against Israeli officials, which made several US congressmen send official letters carrying threats to the court to deter them from indicting the Israelis.
But that's not all. The UN General Assembly voted with a landslide majority to recommend that the Security Council reconsiders Palestine's application for  membership and has granted Palestine more rights and privileges. The world body approved the resolution by a vote of 143-9 with 25 abstentions.

What Comes Next?

With this move which Gallant took, it is possible to see a change in government in Israel sooner rather than later. Gallant seems to have aligned himself with Biden, and Gantz is the likely successor of Netanyahu,  possibly through a vote of no confidence - which requires no elections.
There will be trouble with Ben Gvir and Smotrich who are leading the Great March to Gaza enact the "Final Solution". What comes next will depend on whether a Gallant-Gantz alliance with US support will be able to control Ben Gvir and his allies and armed militias. If they fail, Israel could be facing turbulent times. It could even descend into a civil war. Ben Gvir has been arming and emboldening the settlers. This is why they attack Palestinians in the West bank and assault the aid trucks. It will be a tough job for the next government to stop them now.
In a way, the Israeli government is already divided.  While one part of the government attempts to find ways for food and aid to get into Gaza to keep their promises to the Americans (in order to maintain the flow of arms shipments, much-needed by the army which is facing unprecedented losses), another part (Ben Gvir et al), are supporting settlers who are vandalizing and burning the aid trucks.

The coming days may be carrying big changes. But we just have to wait and see what actually comes next.