If Pakistan Falls

If Pakistan Falls

By:
Wael Nawara

The recent events in Pakistan force me to contemplate a theoretical question: What happens if Pakistan falls into the hands of Taliban or other extremist factions? This 173-million-people country possesses nuclear capability but the nation is largely divided between seculars and extremists. Taliban raised fears in Pakistan by seizing control of the Buner district close to the capital Islamabad and imposed what they consider as “Sharia’a Law”. Scenes of a public flogging of a 17-year old girl on the hands of Taliban early this month alerted the world to the threat. A Washington Post editorial on Sunday said that the Obama administration’s public warnings of Pakistan’s collapse caused panic. Clinton had used the term “existential threat” describing the situation perhaps to urge the Pakistani government to take action. “In the course of three days, the US secretaries of state and defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and the commanding general of American forces in the Middle East all publicly warned, in blunt and dire language, that Pakistan was facing an existential threat – and that its government and Army were not facing it,” the newspaper said.

President Asif Zardari’s government officials tried to play down the threat. But it seems that they are afraid that massive confrontation could spark off a wide civil war which the Pakistani army maybe unable to win. “The Threat is certainly real,” it said, however, and the Pakistan Army – “untrained in counterinsurgency and rigidly focused on India” – is either “reluctant to take on” the Taliban or “mostly ineffective”. But as Taliban forces expanded from Swat into the adjacent district of Buner, 100 kms from the capital, the United States made clear that it would attack Taliban forces in their Swat valley stronghold unless the Pakistan government stopped the militants’ advance towards Islamabad. But the key to this war is not the army. It is the divided nation of Pakistan. Like most other “Islamic” countries, Pakistan is divided between the modern and the old. Between the moderates and the fanatics. The seculars and the extremists. The key is how to develop a new cultural balance which will allow both to co-exist peacefully, before a de facto civil war erupts in all of these “Islamic” countries.

In 1947 there were only 189 madrassas or Islamic Schools in Pakistan. By 2002 the country had 10,000-13,000 unregistered madrassas with an estimated 1.7 to 1.9 million students. A 2008 estimate puts this figure at "over 40,000". So, these schools have collectively produced millions of Pakistani graduates who were taught in these “Islamic” schools which mostly teach extremist versions of Islam. Many of those “graduates” become radicalizing elements within their local societies. They command respect and influence people around them. Although you may meet many moderate Pakistanis, I have to admit that I was shocked to observe that some Pakistanis have developed some of the most extremist Islamic interpretations present today. Many of these extremist Pakistanis now live in Britain or other European countries where they teach or preach in local mosques and Islamic centers. Many others mingle with the population and spread their message amongst immigrant communities or Muslim minorities often feeling socially or economically excluded in their new societies.


If Pakistan falls, could this event trigger the official start of a formal World War III? I think the War or skirmishes of such had already started some time in 2001. But if Pakistan falls, knowing the situation in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen, then we have a very unstable position stretching on a potential battlefront covering many thousands of kilometers. Many other countries, Arab, European and otherwise, have large populations of Muslims ranging from moderates to fanatics. Which side are they going to take? And if more wars are to break out, will this trigger internal stability and radicalization in countries such as Egypt which are still dominated by “Moderates”, such that extremists will take control or gain increasing power? Has the self-fulfilling prophecy of Armageddon finally come to fateful realization? Extremists on both sides have the Armageddon “promise” in their mythology. Each believing that their “own God” will come to their rescue and guide their troops to the path of victory. But what the rest of us can see, is a trail of blood and destruction. Is there an end to this madness?


How does a right-wing-governed Israel fit into this picture? Israel and its atrocities in Palestine is often seen as “the” most potent fuel for radicalization and a major cause of the rise of extremism amongst Muslims around the world. But will the new US administration be able to talk the right-wing Israeli government into a peaceful settlement of a century-long conflict? A settlement with whom, when the Palestinian house is divided? Will such a solution come in time? What pressure can the US exercise over Israel? What is the impact on the internal US political scene?

Meanwhile, the needle of the radicameter in Pakistan as well as in many other places is pushing into the red. And the clock is ticking.

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Related Stories:


From The Times
April 27, 2009
The threat that forced a fight
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6176004.ece

Google

Taliban bar Pakistan army convoy as tension grows
By ASIF SHAHZAD
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkiMxbHNH0BqgpWA2ZG6VD6wVTmAD97PJIVG3


From The Sunday Times
April 26, 2009
‘Stop the Taliban now – or we will’
The US got tough with Pakistan as terrorists moved to within 60 miles of the capital
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6168940.ece

Pakistan Daily Times
US public warning of Pakistan collapse has risks
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C04%5C27%5Cstory_27-4-2009_pg1_13

Pakistan Daily Times
PML-N asks Sufi Muhammad to disarm Taliban
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\04\27\story_27-4-2009_pg1_6

Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico

انفلونزا الخنازير في المكسيك

Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico

There is a potentially serious outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico which may be spreading to other countries. US Center of Disease Control CDC, has not yet warned travellers to Mexico to avoid this destination but CDC is closely monitoring the situation.

As many as 1,000 potential cases are suspected in Mexico and 81 deaths may have been related to the spread of the virus. Only 20 deaths are confirmed to have resulted from contracting the virus in Mexico where face masks are being used to try to avoid the spreading of the outbreak. Local authorities have empowered health officials with emergency powers to try to face the threat. Emeregency measures included shutting down schools and events with large gatherings. Eleven cases are suspected in the US. Other cases are suspected in France, Newzealand and other countries, mainly in travellers coming back from Mexico.

Wash your hands and avoid contact with potentially infected persons or animals.

Reform: The Missing Ingredients

Commentary on WSJ Article Titled:

Egypt's Gamal Mubarak Aims to Underpin Growth

The Missing Ingredients

By:

Wael Nawara

After 23 years of stagnation and confused economic policies, the regime in 2004 started to introduce some liberal economic policies which the liberal opposition has been demanding for many years. This may have been too little and too late. The effectiveness of such economic "reforms" is very low because:

· Lack of political reforms. Economic reform must be accompanied by political and social reforms to work.

· The regime's legitimacy has eroded to critically low levels. The regime only survives by relying on the Security forces.

· Absence of an overall vision with any level of local support. Egyptians are in a state of despair and confusion. People feel lost. They see no direction or future. The only hope for most is to immigrate or find a job in the gulf.

· Zero level of trust between the people and the regime

· Zero credibility which the regime has - people heard so much for so many years, why should they believe it now

· Wide corruption, abuse of power, monopolies within the regime and in the ranks of the very same people who are supposed to be introducing reform policies and legislations.

· Lack of legislative or administrative reforms.

· High level of bureaucracy and the very slow tempo of doing business with the government which still controls every aspect of life.

· Egyptians live in the Parallel State, the informal economy, parallel education, parallel justice, parallel medical care, parallel security, parallel political organizations, etc. Etc. Etc. This has rendered the formal state of little relevance.



The NDP has managed to give "liberal" policies a BAD name amongst Egyptians who now think that Liberalism is equal to business people manipulating the political scene to advance their lucrative monopolies. In light of current affairs, Egyptians has come to see privatization as means for the regime to "sell out" State-owned assets which are being given away at a fraction of their value to front-men, protégés and those willing to pay the highest bribes or commissions.

I am in opposition. In fact I am the head of the executive board in El Ghad Liberal Party. I even ran the Presidential Campaign for our party in Egypt’s first ever multi-candidate presidential elections in 2005 where our candidate, Ayman Nour came second. I, however, wrote in Al Masry Al Youm Daily, Egypt’s leading independent paper, in support of Ahmed Nazif’s policies in 2004 and 2005. I even wrote in El Ghad newspaper also supporting Nazif’s economic reforms. Simply because we had drafted many of these reforms in our own party agenda published in 2003. I even wrote in Al Masry Al Youm in 2005 about Gamal Mubarak, basically saying, yes, his position as a son of the President realistically allowed him to introduce some reforms, but this very fact is a sign of the inadequacy of the political system and the regime. Gamal may be a promising strategist, but if only the son of the President can advance certain policies, this is no longer a republic.


What needs to be done at the moment is to create a dialogue immediately and reach consensus not on economic policy, but on how to install a political process. This has a higher priority for the sake of medium-term stability which is a necessary condition for any economic reform to happen or continue to happen.

See Original Article By: Yaroslav Trofimov

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124018986974433739.html

Venusian Day

If Only (2004)


Movie Review

*** This Review May Contain a Spoiler ***

I liked the romantic thread, the sliding-doors flavor and the idea that one can have a chance to change tragic life events. The movie’s idea of change was to come up with something even more tragic. The ending was pretty heroic, probably unnecessarily so. Never mind the limited acting talent of the lead actors. The only one who did some real acting was the taxi driver, Tom Wilkinson.

This is not why I am writing this review. I am a bit puzzled by the length of the last day. They woke up, had breakfast, he went to work, then went to a hotel to give a presentation, then went to the pub, went to their apartment, went to her friend's apartment, went to Zinc gallery, then took the train to some distant location which could only be the Lake District, 4 hours away by train each way, climbed a mountain, went into a cabin, lit up the fire, went to a pub, took a walk over a bridge, took the train back to London, took the underground, went to London "I", went back to their apartment, changed, went to the photocopier's place, all of that and a few other small details, then had time to "show up" in her 7 o'clock graduation concert.

What kind of day is that? A day on Planet Venus **?

** A Day on Planet Venus is longer than its Year! A day on Venus takes about 243 earth days while a year on the same planet takes about 224 Earth days!

I Remember Shamu

I Remember Sham El Nessim

I remember that my mother would wake me up with the Strong Smell of an Onion, freshly cut in half! She would place the freshly cut onion near my nose ... so I would breathe in the smell and of course wake up ! Sometimes, it was my uncle who did it. My uncle usually would usually wake up quite late. But not on Shamu. He would come up early in the morning on that day, perform the "onion fright" ritual and then we would all go out.

I suspect that this tradition she inherited from her mother and my grandmother, Aziza, from fayoum, from her mother and so on ... I think this symbolized a process of driving "evil" spirits away with the strong smell ...In a way, it is a sobering moment ... the strong smell sobers you up and you realize many things about life.

The food itself symbolized life, prosperity and death ... The eggs - colored with so many natural colors - we usually used herbs or tea leaves or onion peel to dye the eggsAn egg represents life ... or the PROMISE of life ... did colored eggs represent the diversity of lives each of us would lead? We loved coloring the eggs, the boiled eggs of course. Sometimes when there is a crack in the egg, the color would sneak in and paint a thin spider-web shap on the egg white. Some bread rings or "semeet" would be baked with colored eggs inside.

The food also included green leafs - such as Lettuce or Malana (Green Chickpea) or Termis or Foul Herathi (Green Beans) ... symbolized also life, prosperity and freshness of the spring and the Harvest to come ...

The salted fish ... a little like mumified bodies of the dead ... did they symbolize the after-life? or the preservation of life? Where one life was to enter our bodies and take yet another journey in the circle of life? That one day we also are mortals. Such that we must now enjoy life and always remember that we are mortals?

I am not sure what it all meant ... but it was a day of joy ... often public places were too crowded ... but it was a must to go out ... people would often go to take a ride on the Nile. Often there were accidents when boats were overloaded because of the crowds. The Zoo and Kanater Khayeria were popular destinations which we never dared to visit on that day.

I remember that religion was important ... in the sense of the values of goodness, kindness, compassion and love ... not in the sense of exclusion, hatred, external costumes or fake facades ... Mothers ... women of Egypt, played an important role in preserving the culture and the language ... when the language was banned ... mother spoke the beautiful natural words of the land in the ears of the youngsters - and reminded them of the traditions ... my mom always spoke about the seasons and the weather in terms of the Egyptian months ...Amshir and Hatour and Keyhak etc.

Celebration of Shamu must have been the most vivid ancient tradition to survive. The Nile Day, or Wafa'a El Nil is no longer celebrated, it is only Shamu that survived. Thanks to our mothers ...

We must remember ...

Happy Easter - Remembering Shamu

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Happy Easter Twice

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تهنئة خاصة بعيد القيامة
و
نهنئة خاصة بشم النسيم
Shamu

Sham El Nessim

عيد مصري خالص

نحتفل به منذ أيام القدماء

علمتنا أمهاتنا تقاليد الاحتفال به

رغم تباين أدياننا

إلا أن عيد شم النسيم هو عيد لنا كلنا

كل شامو - عيد القيامة - عيد الفصح - شم نسيم وانتم جميعاً ومصر بخير

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Remembering Shamu (Shemu)
الأصول المصرية لعيد القيامة وشم النسيم

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http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=4967019140&topic=11112

To the Last Heart-Beat

هو لسه فيه قادمة؟

نتيجة رائعة:

مبارك يحصل على

39%

نسبة تأييد في صفحته الخاصة

على الفيسبوك لانتخابه لولاية قادمة

في صفحة المؤيدين الخاصة به على الفيسبوك Fan Page، حصل الرئيس مبارك على 39% من تأييد المشاركين في استفتاء حول انتخابه لولاية قادمة، بينما بلغت نسبة المعارضين 53% ونسبة غير المتأكدين حوالي 7%. والجدير بالذكر أن عدد الأعضاء في صفحة أنصار الرئيس يبلغ 1286 مؤيداً، بالمقارنة بحوالي 4626 مؤيد لعمرو موسى وزير الخارجية المصري الأسبق والأمين العام لجامعة الدول العربية حالياً، و817 مؤيد لأيمن نور الذي حصل على المركز الثاني في أول انتخابات رئاسية في مصر والتي أجريت عام 2005، وسجن بعدها نور إلى أن أفرج عنه في فبراير 2009. أما الملك عبد الله، عاهل الأردن فله العديد من صفحات الأنصار على الفيسبوك، تبلغ العضوية في أكبرها أكثر من 23 ألف مؤيد. أما باراك أوباما فيبلغ عدد أنصاره أكثر من 6 مليون مؤيد. وبمقارنة الساسة بالفنانين في المنطقة العربية، تأتي النتيجة لصالح الفنانين بنسبة ضخمة، فعلى سبيل المثال يبلغ عدد أعضاء أكبر صفحات نانسي عجرم على الفيسبوك 151 ألف معجب، بينما يبلغ نفس العدد 115 ألف معجب بالنسبة لعمرو دياب.

وجاء السؤال على صفحة الرئيس مبارك كالتالي: "هل تنتخب الرئيس لفترة قادمة؟"، وجاءت تعليقات الفيسبوكرز على الاستفتاء متباينة:

· "انا حاسه ان احنا هانموت وهو هايفضل عايش وساعتها هايستورد شعب يطلع عينه برضه".
· "هاهاها .. حلوة .. هو لسة في مرة قادمة فعلاً؟ ... ده يبقى حظ ... "
· انا اتولدت وهو رئيس يارب مش عايز أموت وهو رئيس
· على ما اعتقد ان الجيل ده كله اتولد وهو رئيس وامنيه حياته انه يبعد بقى
· معرفش ليه إفتكرت مشهد فى مسرحية والراجل المهكع إياه بيقول عن نفسه فى السبعين ربيعاً،وحط عليهم عشرة،وكمان فترة قادمة،ومعانا سبعة!!هههههههه
· هو لسة فيه قادمة صحيح
· انا شفته اكتر من ما شفت ابويا الله يرحمه
· المشكلة فى انه لسه شايف نفسه يصلح بعد كل ده مش قادر يواجه نفسه بالحقيقة
· المشكلة الاكبر انه معتقد ان الشعب بيحبه ومش عايز يسيبه
· سر التحنيط هو السبب
· استنى ما تعلنش النتائج - انا لسة ما قلتش كلمتى
· هى جات في جمل، الأختام فى إيدنا والإرقام فى إيدنا،الفترة القادمة بـ 99% ،محدش يزعل الراجل على الأواخر


بينما كانت التعليقات على صفحة الرئيس أكثر تعاطفاً:

· آه والله اجمد رئيس و انشاء الله تستمر فى اللى انت مخطط له وهنينتخبك تانى
· والله العظيم أحسن رئيس جمهورية في العالم كله ...ربنا يخليك لينا
· مش كتير اللي حاسيس بيك ....بس أن شاء الله الجنة ليك
· والله مفيش بنى ادم كامل، ويكفى الرئيس الاداءالمتميز على المستوى الدولى، فرايى المشاكل الداخليه (اللى جوه مصر)، بسبب سوء البطانه المحيطه به، وموضوع التوريث ده طبع فى كل انسان مين مبيحبش انه يقعد ابنه فى مكانه بعده، اذا كان حاسس انه مكان كويس
· رجعلنا مصر اللى بنحبها يا ريس ...عاوزينها زى زمان جميلة وقوية وذكية وتقطع رقبة اى حد يحاول يتجرأ علينا او عليها


وقد تولى مبارك الحكم في 14 أكتوبر 1981، أي منذ حوالي 28 عاماً، خلفاً للرئيس السادات، وهو الآن في النصف الثاني من الولاية الخامسة. والجدير بالذكر أن الدستور المصري كان يسمح بتولي الرئيس الولاية بحد أقصى فترتين بإجمالي 12 عاماً، إلى أن جاء اقتراح بتعديل من مجلس الشعب على أن يصبح منطوق المادة "مدد أخرى" بدلاً من "مدة أخرى"، وطرح هذا الاقتراح في استفتاء على الشعب مع مجموعة أخرى من المواد ضمنها "أن تصبح الشريعة الإسلامية هي المصدر الرئيسي للتشريع"، ولكن اغتيال السادات على أيدي الجماعات الإسلامية (!) حال بينه وبين الاستفادة من هذا التعديل، ليستفيد به نائبه وخليفته مبارك، الذي يعد واحد من أطول رؤساء العالم مكوثاً في الحكم يسبقه في هذا كاسترو ومعمر القذافي.

وهناك أجيال متعددة ولدت ونشأت في أثناء حكم مبارك، بل أن هناك حوالي 60% من المصريين لم يعاصروا أي رئيس آخر لمصر بما يفسر التعليقات. ورغم أن مبارك سيبلغ من العمر 81 عاماً خلال أسابيع وتحديداً يوم 4 مايو القادم إلا أنه لم يقم للآن بتعيين نائب له، بل صرح بأنه سوف يظل في كرسي الحكم حتى آخر نفس، أو "ما ظل القلب ينبض"، على حد تعبيره في خطاب أمام مجلس الشعب وسط تصفيق الأعضاء الموقرين وابتهاجهم بهذه البشارة السارة والأنباء السعيدة، التي تعني استمرار النخبة الحاكمة المرفوضة من الشعب في مقاعدها، حيث يتمتع الحزب الوطني الحاكم الذي يرأسه مبارك بأغلبية ساحقة في المجلس، رغم أنه لم يحصل في الانتخابات الماضية سوى على 32% من اصوات الناخبين، بينما لم تتجاوز نسبة الناخبين 23% ، من إجمالي المقيدين في الجداول الانتخابية، أي أن الحزب الوطني "الديمقراطي" الحاكم يجلس في مقاعد الحكم بتأييد حوالي 7.34% فقط من الناخبين بفرض عدم وجود تزوير أو تجاوزات أخرى.

وبالتالي فإن مستوى هذا التأييد لانتخاب مبارك لفترة قادمة (39%) يعد في أفضل الأحوال نسبة عالية جداً، وقد يكون هذا لأسباب متعددة، أهمها أن الصفحة التي تستضيف الاستفتاء هي مخصصة لمناصري مبارك نفسه. ومع هذا فيجب أن نقر بأن نتيجة التصويت على الإنترنت وعلى الفيسبوك قد لا تعبر بدقة عن آراء المصريين، حيث لا يزيد عدد أعضاء الفيسبوك عن حوالي مليون مصري من أصل ما يزيد عن 50 مليون مصري في سن الانتخاب.

والجدير بالذكر أن أحد استطلاعات الرأي على الإنترنت على موقع http://weekite.blogspot.com/ كان قد أجري بعد حريق مجلس الشورى للتعرف على أسباب ردود أفعال المصريين تجاه الحريق المشاعر، جاءت نتيجته أن 89% من المشاركين في الاستطلاع أكدوا أن البرلمان لا يعبر أبداً عن المصريين، بينما قال 7% أن البرلمان يعبر عنهم أحياناً. و بالمقارنة بنسبة رفض المصريين لممثليهم من البرلمانيين والتي بلغت 89% كما أسلفنا، ونسبة التأييد التي حصل عليها الرئيس مبارك، نقول أن الرئيس مبارك يستحق التهنئة على هذه النتيجة الرائعة.

للدخول على موقع الاستفتاء قبل إزالته أو تغير النتيجة

http://www.facebook.com/pages/-/27537274055#/pages/-/27537274055?v=wall&viewas=691420567

صور الشاشة التي توضح نتيجة الاستفتاء تم التقاطها يوم 18 إبريل 2009 بين الساعة 12 ظهراً والساعة 3م بتوقيت القاهرة.

See the page and the poll result before they are removed. Snap-shot taken on April 18th 2009, at noon, Cairo Local Time.