If Pakistan Falls

If Pakistan Falls

By:
Wael Nawara

The recent events in Pakistan force me to contemplate a theoretical question: What happens if Pakistan falls into the hands of Taliban or other extremist factions? This 173-million-people country possesses nuclear capability but the nation is largely divided between seculars and extremists. Taliban raised fears in Pakistan by seizing control of the Buner district close to the capital Islamabad and imposed what they consider as “Sharia’a Law”. Scenes of a public flogging of a 17-year old girl on the hands of Taliban early this month alerted the world to the threat. A Washington Post editorial on Sunday said that the Obama administration’s public warnings of Pakistan’s collapse caused panic. Clinton had used the term “existential threat” describing the situation perhaps to urge the Pakistani government to take action. “In the course of three days, the US secretaries of state and defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and the commanding general of American forces in the Middle East all publicly warned, in blunt and dire language, that Pakistan was facing an existential threat – and that its government and Army were not facing it,” the newspaper said.

President Asif Zardari’s government officials tried to play down the threat. But it seems that they are afraid that massive confrontation could spark off a wide civil war which the Pakistani army maybe unable to win. “The Threat is certainly real,” it said, however, and the Pakistan Army – “untrained in counterinsurgency and rigidly focused on India” – is either “reluctant to take on” the Taliban or “mostly ineffective”. But as Taliban forces expanded from Swat into the adjacent district of Buner, 100 kms from the capital, the United States made clear that it would attack Taliban forces in their Swat valley stronghold unless the Pakistan government stopped the militants’ advance towards Islamabad. But the key to this war is not the army. It is the divided nation of Pakistan. Like most other “Islamic” countries, Pakistan is divided between the modern and the old. Between the moderates and the fanatics. The seculars and the extremists. The key is how to develop a new cultural balance which will allow both to co-exist peacefully, before a de facto civil war erupts in all of these “Islamic” countries.

In 1947 there were only 189 madrassas or Islamic Schools in Pakistan. By 2002 the country had 10,000-13,000 unregistered madrassas with an estimated 1.7 to 1.9 million students. A 2008 estimate puts this figure at "over 40,000". So, these schools have collectively produced millions of Pakistani graduates who were taught in these “Islamic” schools which mostly teach extremist versions of Islam. Many of those “graduates” become radicalizing elements within their local societies. They command respect and influence people around them. Although you may meet many moderate Pakistanis, I have to admit that I was shocked to observe that some Pakistanis have developed some of the most extremist Islamic interpretations present today. Many of these extremist Pakistanis now live in Britain or other European countries where they teach or preach in local mosques and Islamic centers. Many others mingle with the population and spread their message amongst immigrant communities or Muslim minorities often feeling socially or economically excluded in their new societies.


If Pakistan falls, could this event trigger the official start of a formal World War III? I think the War or skirmishes of such had already started some time in 2001. But if Pakistan falls, knowing the situation in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen, then we have a very unstable position stretching on a potential battlefront covering many thousands of kilometers. Many other countries, Arab, European and otherwise, have large populations of Muslims ranging from moderates to fanatics. Which side are they going to take? And if more wars are to break out, will this trigger internal stability and radicalization in countries such as Egypt which are still dominated by “Moderates”, such that extremists will take control or gain increasing power? Has the self-fulfilling prophecy of Armageddon finally come to fateful realization? Extremists on both sides have the Armageddon “promise” in their mythology. Each believing that their “own God” will come to their rescue and guide their troops to the path of victory. But what the rest of us can see, is a trail of blood and destruction. Is there an end to this madness?


How does a right-wing-governed Israel fit into this picture? Israel and its atrocities in Palestine is often seen as “the” most potent fuel for radicalization and a major cause of the rise of extremism amongst Muslims around the world. But will the new US administration be able to talk the right-wing Israeli government into a peaceful settlement of a century-long conflict? A settlement with whom, when the Palestinian house is divided? Will such a solution come in time? What pressure can the US exercise over Israel? What is the impact on the internal US political scene?

Meanwhile, the needle of the radicameter in Pakistan as well as in many other places is pushing into the red. And the clock is ticking.

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Related Stories:


From The Times
April 27, 2009
The threat that forced a fight
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6176004.ece

Google

Taliban bar Pakistan army convoy as tension grows
By ASIF SHAHZAD
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkiMxbHNH0BqgpWA2ZG6VD6wVTmAD97PJIVG3


From The Sunday Times
April 26, 2009
‘Stop the Taliban now – or we will’
The US got tough with Pakistan as terrorists moved to within 60 miles of the capital
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6168940.ece

Pakistan Daily Times
US public warning of Pakistan collapse has risks
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C04%5C27%5Cstory_27-4-2009_pg1_13

Pakistan Daily Times
PML-N asks Sufi Muhammad to disarm Taliban
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\04\27\story_27-4-2009_pg1_6

The Sex Files - Emotional Deficit

Two-thirds of Men
Harass Women in Egypt
While Four out of Five
Male Workers are Harassed
By Female Co-workers
in Australia!

Time for some
"Cultural" Exchange?

By:
Wael Nawara

CAIRO (Reuters - Thu Jul 17, 2008 - Cynthia Johnston): -
Nearly two-thirds of Egyptian men admit to having sexually harassed women in Egypt according to a survey carried out by the Egyptian Center for Women's Rights.

Meanwhile, only two weeks ago, another survey showed, according to Inga Gilchrist (http://www.news.com.au/), that four out of five male workers in Australia said they'd been harassed by a female colleague, according to study for a British employment law firm Peninsula.

Sex-Starved Men?
The Egyptian survey showed that a majority say women themselves are to blame for their maltreatment for wearing "indecent" outfits. The forms of harassment reported by Egyptian men, include touching or ogling women, shouting sexually explicit remarks, and exposing their genitals (!) to women, despite the socially conservative nature of this traditional Muslim society. The behavior could have repercussions on Egypt's tourism industry, a major foreign income earner, with 98 percent of foreign women saying they had experienced harassment in the country, the survey which included more than 2,000 Egyptian men and women and 109 foreign women, said.

Less than two years ago, Egyptian bloggers reported an incident where a large mob of young males set up a sexual trap in downtown Cairo on the first day of the Eid. Almost every passing woman would be surrounded, grabbed and molested. Whether wearing Neqab, Hegab or uncovered, Egyptian and foreign women were assaulted indiscriminately. Shop owners and taxi drivers tried to protect the women from the mob by taking them inside their stores or vehicles and lock the doors, while the mobs tried to break in.

Reversed Fortunes
The situation seems to be quite the opposite down under. The British survey on Australian workplace showed that men were too afraid to complain about harassment. Aussie law firm Holding Redlich's senior associate, Fiona Knowles, said bosses were more likely to tell a man he was lucky to be ogled and hassled. One Australian man got a $10,000 payout after a Victorian tribunal found his bosses had dry-humped him and grabbed his genitals. Two-thirds of the 2300 men questioned in the British study also said that sexual banter was inappropriate at work. A separate poll of 1600 employers found bosses wouldn't take a complaint of sexual harassment as seriously if it were from a male worker! David Price of Peninsula said the balance had shifted and women now aimed sexual banter at men. "Not everyone's happy with these type of jokes and the situation is a growing problem for employers," he said.

Emotional Deficit
While the trends seem to be totally the opposite between Egypt and Australia, I suspect the reasons are similar. Emotional Deficit. For several decades, the Egyptian society was being Islamized, making the chances of having a natural and healthy pre-marriage boy-girl relationship ever diminishing. Marriage itself, it would seem is becoming more unaffordable than ever. The average age for marriage in Egypt for men has consistently increased. It is normal to see someone who is thirty years old who still has a few years to go before he can afford to provide the extensive requirements for marriage. In many cases, a young male in Egypt had to travel to the Gulf and work for a few years "building his fortune" يكون نفسه to be able to afford the hefty burdens of marriage. Knowing that boys probably reach puberty at the age of 13 or 14, this means that a male in Egypt will spend some twenty years suffering from this emotional and "physical" deficit.

In Australia, on the other hand, the rising percentage of women in white-collar jobs, probably makes the corporate workplace more dominated by women. I guess someone has to research this further, but I think it is basic supply and demand. Market forces at work. Men who are "available", "interested" and "interesting" seem to have become a rare commodity in Australia. Always with an eye for opportunities whenever a market "gap", or a "hole" is identified, I would strongly recommend the Egyptian and Australian governments to work something out in the form of some "cultural exchange" program, where young and highly eligible Egyptian men are sent to Australia. In exchange, interested Aussie women are imported into the streets of Cairo where they will have the time of their lives with the abundance of sex-starved men! A bad joke? Time to get serious.


The Parallel State:
According to the theory of the "Parallel State"**, whenever a formal economic, social, cultural or legal subsystem fails to deliver the basic needs of the people, mother nature steps in. People have collectively demonstrated a remarkable genius in devising parallel sub-systems to fill that gap, hole or deficit. Marriage becomes unaffordable, young couples resort to "civil marriage" or "Gawaz 3orfi". The taxi fare meter stuck at 60 piasters (a piaster is a coin we used to have in the past, which is about 1/100th of a pound) since 1980's, passengers and drivers have a widely accepted tariff scheme for all possible destinations and journeys, in addition to the people's invention of the "micro-bus".

A few years ago, when the government insisted on enforcing a ridiculously unrealistic exchange rate for the dollar, well, people developed their own rates and "grey" markets. In education, private tuition prospers in every direction, private schools, universities, books, lessons (doroos khososeya), IGCSE, IB & AD Centers. Courts don't work? You have thugs to bring back your money, checks or stolen land or apartment. The police doesn't care? You hire your own body guards or security officers, thank you very much. Government hospitals threaten to prematurely send you to your grave, you tip the nurses and everything will be fine, and you can always go for the five-star hospitals or the mosque clinics. Fixed rent for old apartment too low? There is "key-hold money" (Khelew Regl). And so on and on. This is the Parallel State at work and natural laws at their finest. And as these individual subsystems interact, they get interlocked in a huge web of "grey" or "shadow" subsystems, thus forming the "Parallel State", the "Shadow State".


The same goes for these emotional deficits. You want to call the abusers criminals and send them to jail, fine. So do I. This may be a part of the solution. But ultimately, on the long-term, we must learn to stop fighting nature. Accept nature. Young men and women have basic emotional and physical needs. These needs create demand which must be addressed with social solutions. Must be channeled in socially acceptable channels, affordable solutions and feasible means. The tightening moral code introduced by the Islamists only threatens to develop an explosive situation at home. There has been many reports and TV shows describing a similar situation at Saudi Arabia, where percentage of homosexuality is on the rise. Incest and other perverted forms of relationships seem to be increasing at alarmin rates. Why do we have to deny nature and see perfectly normal relations indecent is beyond me. You ignore the laws of mother-nature and you will be inviting the parallel state to devise its own solution.

And while informal or "grey" subsystems usually seem to do the job and fulfill the need, the "gap" or the unmet demand with varying degrees of success, black "subsystems" also exist as a by-product of an emerging realization that the formal state is no longer relevant. Law and Order collapse as respect for legislations diminish. Black subsystems come in the form of illegal and immoral solutions and short-cuts. Pribes, illegal permits and criminal activity spreads as respect for the law decays. If "civil marriage" or "Gawaz 3orfi" is a "grey solution" to mostly unaffordable "formal" marriage, sexual assault and molestation is a "black" and criminal behavior adopted by those who are unable to satisfy or control "that" deficit through the "grey solution", namely the "civil marriage".

I do not want anyone to think that I am an apologist on behalf of the abusers. I am not. I am with tightening the punishment, but we have to realize that few, if any, seem to be reporting or filing police complaints against the abusers. So, the long-term solution in my opinion will be, to relax or ease the tight restrictions on boy-girl relationships. Let us go back to our normal selves. Again, I am not promoting total dropping of our customs, traditions or values in favor of becoming widely permissive. I am only suggesting that we, as a society, loosen the tight screws a bit to help release some of the pressure, in order to avoid explosion of an already flammable situation.

And of course, as another solution, you are welcome to go and work in Australia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1732581120080717?rpc=60&pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

http://www.sandmonkey.org/2006/10/30/the-eid-sexual-harassment-incident/

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23962904-5012426,00.html

**The Parallel State

http://weekite.blogspot.com/2008/07/parallel-state.html