Israel Faces Tough Choices (Updated)

Updated 25 May 2024

Israel Faces Tough Choices

In a previous article, I suggested that Israel has lost the war. Truth of the matter is, Israel has lost much more than that. Israel has lost its ability to fineness its way and hide its crimes. This time things just went out of control. No hasbara, no matter how good, could do the trick. It is now very difficult to see a viable path forward. And it is even tougher to write about one.

More Bad News

The last few days carried very bad news for Israel. 
Somehow, Hamas has managed to regroup its forces in the North (in areas which Israel had bulldozed) and the Middle of Gaza and has been attacking Israeli forces with devastating blows.
Israeli losses are huge. And things seem to be getting worse, not better. The situation, militarily and strategically, is untenable. This must have contributed to why Gallant has made this speech.
The only achievement which Israel has been able to do, was to destroy Gaza, kill and injure over 110,000 people, majority are women and children, which has turned the world public opinion against it and sent it to the International Court of Justice and ICC.

But that's not all. The UN General Assembly voted with a landslide majority to recommend that the Security Council reconsiders Palestine's application for  membership and has granted Palestine more rights and privileges. The world body approved the resolution by a vote of 143-9 with 25 abstentions.

But just when you think things could get any worse for the apartheid state, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced that he is seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, prime minister and minister of defense of Israel. Many European countries, traditionally faithful allies of Israel, had to adhere to their obligations and announced that that they will comply with the ICC arrest warrants, if such are indeed are issued by the judges. 

As if all this was not enough, Ireland, Spain and Norway just announced that they are recognizing Palestine as a state.

Only 4 days later, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately halt its Rafah military offensive, withdraw its troops, and open the crossings for humanitarian aid and assistance.

This may be the worst May which Israel has witnessed in its short history. The Month of May is when Israel commemorates its 'independence', and the founding of the state.

A Strategic Defeat

Strategically, Israel has been utterly defeated. A total defeat which will shake its very foundations for years, if any. I came to that conclusion because:

• Israel has failed to implement the "final solution" (ethnic cleansing of Gaza through pushing Gazans into the Sinai desert), after Egypt fortified the borders and announced that this will be a red line. Breaching that red line may lead to revoking the Peace Treaty.
• Israel has failed to destroy Hamas. As Israel pushes to the South, Hamas regrouped in the North and the Middle of Gaza.
• Israel has failed to free the hostages. Israel has killed more of its hostages than it has managed to release.
• Strategically, Israel has lost the world's public opinion. The global protests and condemnations, student encampment, and a social media sentiment of about 9:1 against Israel, all point to colossal strategic defeat and very hard times ahead. In fact, Israel's legitimacy, its very existence, is now being questioned.

With these difficult circumstances, Israel was facing very tough choices. But since the last article, more bad news for Israel has emerged.

The Final Solution

To keep his government afloat (and stay out of jail), Netanyahu had to subscribe to the right wing's dream (or nightmare) of the final solution. Ben Gvir and those on his bandwagon, believe that Palestinians must leave. At least to them this campaign is not really about Hamas, Oct 7 or even the hostages. It's about completing the job of ethnic cleansing which started in 1948. Their hope is that with enough pressure, Egypt will open the borders and let them in. They said it publicly so many times. They even suggested that the move will be temporary. But Palestinians of course know, once they are out, they will never see their homes again. Most residents of Gaza are themselves refugees and the descendants of those ethnically cleansed before from other parts of Palestine.

Why Rafah?

Why does Israel insist on invading Rafah, despite many reasons against the invasion:

• It is a very small area, crowding in it are almost one and a half million people. Most of them already evacuated from the North of Gaza or other places. The human cost will be catastrophic, further isolating Israel and entrenching its position as a pariah state.  
• Hamas has already regrouped in the North. So, why would Israel go after them in the South?
• The whole world is warning Israel not to do it. Even Biden stopped one arms shipment as a result of Netanyahu's stubbornness on the Rafah issue.

In my opinion, the reason why Israel is determined to invade Rafah, can be understood from its 1948 ethnic cleansing tactics. A village would be attacked from 3 directions, leaving a safe exit which the evicted residents could take, usually pointing to the nearest border.  
It is the same with Rafah. Rafah is the closest point in Gaza to the Egyptian border. By intensifying the attacks on Rafah, a humanitarian catastrophe will unfold, and Egypt will find itself forced to open the borders for humanitarian reasons. At least, this is what the 
settler extremists were hoping for.

Egypt Refused to 'Play Ball'

But Egypt 'refused' to play ball, and instead, announced that this is a red line not to be crossed. Crossing that line will mean suspending or revoking the Peace Treaty and worse. Egypt has since intervened in the ICJ genocide case, joining South Africa. Egyptian officials also made sure to clearly communicate the message to the Americans and Europeans. Pushing Gazans into Sinai is not to happen. 

What Comes Next?

With an arrest warrant, Netanyahu's position has become untenable. And since Gallant may also be expecting an arrest warrant, both have become toxic assets.

Can Gantz fill that void? Doubtful. Gantz seemed to have aligned himself with Biden and the polls show that if elections are held in Israel he would win, but who will call for elections?

Ben Gvir and Smotrich seem to cling to the "final solution" scenario, but with the entire world now looking at the ICJ genocide case and Netanyahu/Gallant potential arrest warrants, it is virtually impossible to actually implement their ethnic cleansing plans.

Israel will be facing turbulent times. It could even descend into a civil war. Ben Gvir has been arming and emboldening the settlers. This is why they attack Palestinians in the West bank and assault the aid trucks. It will be a tough job for the next government to stop them now.

In a way, the Israeli government is already divided.  While one part of the government attempts to find ways for food and aid to get into Gaza to keep their promises to the Americans (in order to maintain the flow of arms shipments, much-needed by the army which is facing unprecedented losses), another part (Ben Gvir et al), are supporting settlers who are vandalizing and burning the aid trucks.

The coming days may be carrying big changes. But we just have to wait and see what actually comes next.