Israel Faces Tough Choices (Updated)

Updated 25 May 2024

Israel Faces Tough Choices

In a previous article, I suggested that Israel has lost the war. Truth of the matter is, Israel has lost much more than that. Israel has lost its ability to fineness its way and hide its crimes. This time things just went out of control. No hasbara, no matter how good, could do the trick. It is now very difficult to see a viable path forward. And it is even tougher to write about one.

More Bad News

The last few days carried very bad news for Israel. 
Somehow, Hamas has managed to regroup its forces in the North (in areas which Israel had bulldozed) and the Middle of Gaza and has been attacking Israeli forces with devastating blows.
Israeli losses are huge. And things seem to be getting worse, not better. The situation, militarily and strategically, is untenable. This must have contributed to why Gallant has made this speech.
The only achievement which Israel has been able to do, was to destroy Gaza, kill and injure over 110,000 people, majority are women and children, which has turned the world public opinion against it and sent it to the International Court of Justice and ICC.

But that's not all. The UN General Assembly voted with a landslide majority to recommend that the Security Council reconsiders Palestine's application for  membership and has granted Palestine more rights and privileges. The world body approved the resolution by a vote of 143-9 with 25 abstentions.

But just when you think things could get any worse for the apartheid state, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced that he is seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, prime minister and minister of defense of Israel. Many European countries, traditionally faithful allies of Israel, had to adhere to their obligations and announced that that they will comply with the ICC arrest warrants, if such are indeed are issued by the judges. 

As if all this was not enough, Ireland, Spain and Norway just announced that they are recognizing Palestine as a state.

Only 4 days later, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately halt its Rafah military offensive, withdraw its troops, and open the crossings for humanitarian aid and assistance.

This may be the worst May which Israel has witnessed in its short history. The Month of May is when Israel commemorates its 'independence', and the founding of the state.

A Strategic Defeat

Strategically, Israel has been utterly defeated. A total defeat which will shake its very foundations for years, if any. I came to that conclusion because:

• Israel has failed to implement the "final solution" (ethnic cleansing of Gaza through pushing Gazans into the Sinai desert), after Egypt fortified the borders and announced that this will be a red line. Breaching that red line may lead to revoking the Peace Treaty.
• Israel has failed to destroy Hamas. As Israel pushes to the South, Hamas regrouped in the North and the Middle of Gaza.
• Israel has failed to free the hostages. Israel has killed more of its hostages than it has managed to release.
• Strategically, Israel has lost the world's public opinion. The global protests and condemnations, student encampment, and a social media sentiment of about 9:1 against Israel, all point to colossal strategic defeat and very hard times ahead. In fact, Israel's legitimacy, its very existence, is now being questioned.

With these difficult circumstances, Israel was facing very tough choices. But since the last article, more bad news for Israel has emerged.

The Final Solution

To keep his government afloat (and stay out of jail), Netanyahu had to subscribe to the right wing's dream (or nightmare) of the final solution. Ben Gvir and those on his bandwagon, believe that Palestinians must leave. At least to them this campaign is not really about Hamas, Oct 7 or even the hostages. It's about completing the job of ethnic cleansing which started in 1948. Their hope is that with enough pressure, Egypt will open the borders and let them in. They said it publicly so many times. They even suggested that the move will be temporary. But Palestinians of course know, once they are out, they will never see their homes again. Most residents of Gaza are themselves refugees and the descendants of those ethnically cleansed before from other parts of Palestine.

Why Rafah?

Why does Israel insist on invading Rafah, despite many reasons against the invasion:

• It is a very small area, crowding in it are almost one and a half million people. Most of them already evacuated from the North of Gaza or other places. The human cost will be catastrophic, further isolating Israel and entrenching its position as a pariah state.  
• Hamas has already regrouped in the North. So, why would Israel go after them in the South?
• The whole world is warning Israel not to do it. Even Biden stopped one arms shipment as a result of Netanyahu's stubbornness on the Rafah issue.

In my opinion, the reason why Israel is determined to invade Rafah, can be understood from its 1948 ethnic cleansing tactics. A village would be attacked from 3 directions, leaving a safe exit which the evicted residents could take, usually pointing to the nearest border.  
It is the same with Rafah. Rafah is the closest point in Gaza to the Egyptian border. By intensifying the attacks on Rafah, a humanitarian catastrophe will unfold, and Egypt will find itself forced to open the borders for humanitarian reasons. At least, this is what the 
settler extremists were hoping for.

Egypt Refused to 'Play Ball'

But Egypt 'refused' to play ball, and instead, announced that this is a red line not to be crossed. Crossing that line will mean suspending or revoking the Peace Treaty and worse. Egypt has since intervened in the ICJ genocide case, joining South Africa. Egyptian officials also made sure to clearly communicate the message to the Americans and Europeans. Pushing Gazans into Sinai is not to happen. 

What Comes Next?

With an arrest warrant, Netanyahu's position has become untenable. And since Gallant may also be expecting an arrest warrant, both have become toxic assets.

Can Gantz fill that void? Doubtful. Gantz seemed to have aligned himself with Biden and the polls show that if elections are held in Israel he would win, but who will call for elections?

Ben Gvir and Smotrich seem to cling to the "final solution" scenario, but with the entire world now looking at the ICJ genocide case and Netanyahu/Gallant potential arrest warrants, it is virtually impossible to actually implement their ethnic cleansing plans.

Israel will be facing turbulent times. It could even descend into a civil war. Ben Gvir has been arming and emboldening the settlers. This is why they attack Palestinians in the West bank and assault the aid trucks. It will be a tough job for the next government to stop them now.

In a way, the Israeli government is already divided.  While one part of the government attempts to find ways for food and aid to get into Gaza to keep their promises to the Americans (in order to maintain the flow of arms shipments, much-needed by the army which is facing unprecedented losses), another part (Ben Gvir et al), are supporting settlers who are vandalizing and burning the aid trucks.

The coming days may be carrying big changes. But we just have to wait and see what actually comes next.

UN Book or the Jungle Book? ... o o o

Statehood Responsibilities and

the Principle of Proportionality

By:

Wael Nawara

Today, I was discussing the massacres in Gaza with a friend and he said ... "well, you poke a bear, even lightly, you should expect that the bear would eat you." I had to agree with that argument about the bear. But then I thought, well, a bear is a wild animal. It has neither a mind nor a conscience. A bear has no choice. The bear is just an animal.

I denounce Hamas for killing Israeli civilians and for taking Gazans as hostages for months to achieve some political gains which are related to Hamas alone, and not to the Palestinian cause or the Palestinian people. But the massacres which Israel performed in Gaza are war crimes of the worst proportions.

Are we to allow States to act like animals? Would this be OK? To act like you were in Jungle Book?


I would like us to reflect for a moment on the concept of "responsibility" and the concept of "proportionality". Israel, as a State has a responsibility to act like a state. Hamas is not a state. It is an organization. Some, perhaps even many say, it is a terrorist organziation. Hamas claims itself as a resistance movement which started in the eighties, with a bunch of kids throwing stones at Israeli soldiers of the occupation forces which in return crushed the children's bones with heavy rocks and hammers. As Oslo peace process reached a dead end, Hamas unfortunately started adopting violence. This shift, in my opinion, did more damage to the Palestinian cause than anything that has happened during the past 20 years.


When Hamas attacks Israel and kills innocent civilians, Israel is expected to have some response and try to protect its citizens. As a State, Israel, on the other hand, must respond with reasonably proportional force. But to kill children and civilians in this way, is neither proportional nor responsible. This behavior is not Stately.


Israel, therefore, must bear consequences to its choices. Hamas is already classified by many countries as a Terrorist Organization. Israel should today be classified as a State which uses, endorses and mass-produces terrorism. Israel must pay.


So, what should we do?


Shall we bring Israel to pay for these war crimes, as responsible states should be expected to?


Or shall we start to consider Israel as a mindless bear which threatens its neighbors and world peace at large?


Shall the UN and the Security Council deal with Israel as per its charter, as per the Book?


Or shall we endorse the Jungle Book?

Is Gaza an Occupied Territory

Is Gaza an Occupied Territory?




The U.N. position


In February 2008, Secretary-General Ban was asked at a media availability whether Gaza is occupied territory. "I am not in a position to say on these legal matters," he responded.


The next day, at a press briefing, a reporter pointed out to a U.N. spokesman that the secretary-general had told Arab League representatives that Gaza was still considered occupied.


"Yes, the U.N. defines Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem as Occupied Palestinian Territory. No, that definition hasn't changed," the spokesman replied.


Farhan Haq, spokesman for the secretary-general, told CNN Monday that the official status of Gaza would change only through a decision of the U.N. Security Council.





Source:

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/01/06/israel.gaza.occupation.question/




CIA Factbook


West Bank and Gaza Strip are Israeli-occupied with current status subject to the Israeli-Palestinian Interim Agreement - permanent status to be determined through further negotiation; Israel removed settlers and military personnel from the Gaza Strip in August 2005."


Source

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/is.html




The Israeli Settlements


The international community has long recognized the unlawfulness of the Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories. UN Security Council Resolution 465 (of 1 March 1980) called on Israel "... to dismantle the existing settlements and in particular to cease, on an urgent basis, the establishment, construction and planning of settlements in the Arab territories occupied since 1967, including Jerusalem".


However, the international community failed to take any measure to implement this resolution. Most Israeli settlements in the Occupied Territories were built after this resolution was passed, with the greatest expansion having taken place in the past decade. The establishment and expansion of settlements and related infrastructure in the West Bank is continuing on a daily basis, contrary to Israel's commitment under the UN-sponsored 2003 Roadmap peace plan. This week the Israeli government confirmed its plan to built 3,500 new settlement houses in the East Jerusalem area of the West Bank.


As well as violating international humanitarian law per se, the implementation of Israel's settlement policy in the Occupied Territories violates fundamental human rights provisions, including the prohibition of discrimination. The seizure and appropriations of land for Israeli settlements, bypass roads and related infrastructure and discriminatory allocation of other vital resources, including water, have had a devastating impact on the fundamental rights of the local Palestinian population, including their rights to an adequate standard of living, housing, health, education, and work, and freedom of movement within the Occupied Territories.


Source

http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/MDE15/021/2005/en/dom-MDE150212005en.html