Israel Faces Tough Choices (Updated)

Updated 25 May 2024

Israel Faces Tough Choices

In a previous article, I suggested that Israel has lost the war. Truth of the matter is, Israel has lost much more than that. Israel has lost its ability to fineness its way and hide its crimes. This time things just went out of control. No hasbara, no matter how good, could do the trick. It is now very difficult to see a viable path forward. And it is even tougher to write about one.

More Bad News

The last few days carried very bad news for Israel. 
Somehow, Hamas has managed to regroup its forces in the North (in areas which Israel had bulldozed) and the Middle of Gaza and has been attacking Israeli forces with devastating blows.
Israeli losses are huge. And things seem to be getting worse, not better. The situation, militarily and strategically, is untenable. This must have contributed to why Gallant has made this speech.
The only achievement which Israel has been able to do, was to destroy Gaza, kill and injure over 110,000 people, majority are women and children, which has turned the world public opinion against it and sent it to the International Court of Justice and ICC.

But that's not all. The UN General Assembly voted with a landslide majority to recommend that the Security Council reconsiders Palestine's application for  membership and has granted Palestine more rights and privileges. The world body approved the resolution by a vote of 143-9 with 25 abstentions.

But just when you think things could get any worse for the apartheid state, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced that he is seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, prime minister and minister of defense of Israel. Many European countries, traditionally faithful allies of Israel, had to adhere to their obligations and announced that that they will comply with the ICC arrest warrants, if such are indeed are issued by the judges. 

As if all this was not enough, Ireland, Spain and Norway just announced that they are recognizing Palestine as a state.

Only 4 days later, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately halt its Rafah military offensive, withdraw its troops, and open the crossings for humanitarian aid and assistance.

This may be the worst May which Israel has witnessed in its short history. The Month of May is when Israel commemorates its 'independence', and the founding of the state.

A Strategic Defeat

Strategically, Israel has been utterly defeated. A total defeat which will shake its very foundations for years, if any. I came to that conclusion because:

• Israel has failed to implement the "final solution" (ethnic cleansing of Gaza through pushing Gazans into the Sinai desert), after Egypt fortified the borders and announced that this will be a red line. Breaching that red line may lead to revoking the Peace Treaty.
• Israel has failed to destroy Hamas. As Israel pushes to the South, Hamas regrouped in the North and the Middle of Gaza.
• Israel has failed to free the hostages. Israel has killed more of its hostages than it has managed to release.
• Strategically, Israel has lost the world's public opinion. The global protests and condemnations, student encampment, and a social media sentiment of about 9:1 against Israel, all point to colossal strategic defeat and very hard times ahead. In fact, Israel's legitimacy, its very existence, is now being questioned.

With these difficult circumstances, Israel was facing very tough choices. But since the last article, more bad news for Israel has emerged.

The Final Solution

To keep his government afloat (and stay out of jail), Netanyahu had to subscribe to the right wing's dream (or nightmare) of the final solution. Ben Gvir and those on his bandwagon, believe that Palestinians must leave. At least to them this campaign is not really about Hamas, Oct 7 or even the hostages. It's about completing the job of ethnic cleansing which started in 1948. Their hope is that with enough pressure, Egypt will open the borders and let them in. They said it publicly so many times. They even suggested that the move will be temporary. But Palestinians of course know, once they are out, they will never see their homes again. Most residents of Gaza are themselves refugees and the descendants of those ethnically cleansed before from other parts of Palestine.

Why Rafah?

Why does Israel insist on invading Rafah, despite many reasons against the invasion:

• It is a very small area, crowding in it are almost one and a half million people. Most of them already evacuated from the North of Gaza or other places. The human cost will be catastrophic, further isolating Israel and entrenching its position as a pariah state.  
• Hamas has already regrouped in the North. So, why would Israel go after them in the South?
• The whole world is warning Israel not to do it. Even Biden stopped one arms shipment as a result of Netanyahu's stubbornness on the Rafah issue.

In my opinion, the reason why Israel is determined to invade Rafah, can be understood from its 1948 ethnic cleansing tactics. A village would be attacked from 3 directions, leaving a safe exit which the evicted residents could take, usually pointing to the nearest border.  
It is the same with Rafah. Rafah is the closest point in Gaza to the Egyptian border. By intensifying the attacks on Rafah, a humanitarian catastrophe will unfold, and Egypt will find itself forced to open the borders for humanitarian reasons. At least, this is what the 
settler extremists were hoping for.

Egypt Refused to 'Play Ball'

But Egypt 'refused' to play ball, and instead, announced that this is a red line not to be crossed. Crossing that line will mean suspending or revoking the Peace Treaty and worse. Egypt has since intervened in the ICJ genocide case, joining South Africa. Egyptian officials also made sure to clearly communicate the message to the Americans and Europeans. Pushing Gazans into Sinai is not to happen. 

What Comes Next?

With an arrest warrant, Netanyahu's position has become untenable. And since Gallant may also be expecting an arrest warrant, both have become toxic assets.

Can Gantz fill that void? Doubtful. Gantz seemed to have aligned himself with Biden and the polls show that if elections are held in Israel he would win, but who will call for elections?

Ben Gvir and Smotrich seem to cling to the "final solution" scenario, but with the entire world now looking at the ICJ genocide case and Netanyahu/Gallant potential arrest warrants, it is virtually impossible to actually implement their ethnic cleansing plans.

Israel will be facing turbulent times. It could even descend into a civil war. Ben Gvir has been arming and emboldening the settlers. This is why they attack Palestinians in the West bank and assault the aid trucks. It will be a tough job for the next government to stop them now.

In a way, the Israeli government is already divided.  While one part of the government attempts to find ways for food and aid to get into Gaza to keep their promises to the Americans (in order to maintain the flow of arms shipments, much-needed by the army which is facing unprecedented losses), another part (Ben Gvir et al), are supporting settlers who are vandalizing and burning the aid trucks.

The coming days may be carrying big changes. But we just have to wait and see what actually comes next.

رسالة إلى نتنياهو

إذا كان قتل الجنود المصريين خطأ وكنت حريصا على السلام كما تقول - لماذا لم تعتذر؟ 

والآن وبعد أن قتل جنود مصريين على أيدي رجالك ولم تعتذر أنت أو حكومتك - ورغم أني ضد اقتحام السفارات من حيث المبدأ - لكن اعلم اننا لم نعد نقبل البلطجة

إذا كنت تريد أن تعيش في سلام في هذه المنطقة - فاعلم أن هذا يستدعي التصرف بطريقة مؤدبة مع جيرانك المصريين - الفلسطينيين والعرب

كل إهانة توجهها لفلسطيني في القدس أو غزة أو الضفة أو في أي مكان - هي إهانة لنا - فلا تندهش من الغضب الشعبي ضدك أنت وشعبك

كل يوم يمر دون أن تعيد الحقوق الفلسطينية لأصحابها - تكتسب المزيد من الكراهية الشعبية - و الكارما السلبية التي ستلاحقك أنت ودولتك

كان هناك وقت - حيث كانت أفعالك العدوانية تمر وتذهب بدون عواقب - الآن اعلم أن هذا العصر قد انتهى ولن تستطيع حكومة مصرية أو غير مصرية أن تحميك من أفعالك

فقط أنت وحكومتك تستطيع أن تحمي شعبك بأن تتصرف بما يتفق مع روح المعاهدات التي وقعتها

 مرة أخرى - هذا ليس تأييدا مني لاقتحام سفارتكم في مصر - لأنني لا أؤيده - لكن اعلم أنك عندما تضع الملح على الجرح تنتفض الشعوب ...

#IsraeliEmbassy

A Message to Netanyahu: What Makes a Good Neighbor

If you have been witnessing the recent events in Cairo, especially those related to your Embassy in Giza, with confusion, I would like to explain this from one Egyptian perspective. First, I want you to know that with the exception of "justice", Egyptians value nothing more than peace. Since the fourth millennium B.C., Egyptians have adopted, under various banners and religions, the Ma'at value system. Ma'at itself being a revered goddess, symbolizing a moral code of justice, harmony, goodness and being good to your neighbor. Egyptians valued peace out of necessity. Only with peace could the land be planted with wheat fields needed to make Egyptian bread. Only through cooperation with one’s neighbors could one persuade the Nile into flowing through the oldest irrigation network Man had ever known. Perhaps other climates and habitats made it necessary for nomadic tribes to adopt more aggressive methods, lifestyles and value systems, where hardships of living in the desert made it occasionally necessary or acceptable to raid lands or water sources belonging to neighboring tribes for survival.

Over several thousand years, Egypt developed its agricultural society in a peaceful state of relative isolation. The valley was like an invincible island in an ocean of sand. But once neighboring tribes developed wheeled warrior wagons, chariots, the equation was challenged. Egyptians learned quickly that for peace and justice to prevail, force to defend that peace was necessary, also for survival. Egyptians soon learned how to deal with regional bullies with the only language they seemed to understand. And when Egyptians blinked forgetting that lesson, Egypt was colonized for some 2000 years. That lesson is too long for any nation to forget.

Now, coming to current events. I must level with you. I am against storming Embassies, including yours, as a matter of principle. I, like wide majority of Egyptians, believe in peace. Even in anger and protest, we strive to control ourselves and express our rage in a peaceful manner. Perhaps you have learned about our revolutions. Whether in 1805, 1919, 1952 and #Jan25, in all these revolutions we expressed monumental anger in a relatively peaceful manner. But for some reason, you keep rubbing us the wrong way. We signed a peace treaty with you more than thirty years ago, yet, we are still to see Palestinians getting their rights. Palestinian rights, I hope you will soon understand if you have not done so already, lies in the core of our quarrel with you. Our people see the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and get angrier everyday. We see pictures of children killed by your war machine and we shake our heads in total resentment. We come to wonder, if you intend to have a peaceful future in this region, your actions comprise the worst PR strategy you can ever think of. Living in a neighborhood, one must earn respect and trust of one's neighbors. This requires more than power or even wisdom. This requires politeness and courtesy.

A helicopter under your command killed a number of Egyptian soldiers recently on our borders. You claim this was done by mistake. Yet, you and your government refused to apologize for these tragic deaths. Why? Did you think you are too good to apologize to the families of these soldiers and to their fellow Egyptians? Just because you are shielded from Security Council's condemnation with the abuse of US veto power, did you think that you do not answer to anyone anymore?

There were times, not so long ago, when our own government would shield you from the anger of our people. Today, no one can shield you from the consequences of your actions, except you yourself. The golden rule is revived, believe it or not, "treat thy neighbor as you wish to be treated". Again, I am against storming your embassy, but I must remind you that sprinkling salt on the wound will always aggravate people into uprisings which governments can no longer control.