Israel Faces Tough Choices (Updated)

Updated 25 May 2024

Israel Faces Tough Choices

In a previous article, I suggested that Israel has lost the war. Truth of the matter is, Israel has lost much more than that. Israel has lost its ability to fineness its way and hide its crimes. This time things just went out of control. No hasbara, no matter how good, could do the trick. It is now very difficult to see a viable path forward. And it is even tougher to write about one.

More Bad News

The last few days carried very bad news for Israel. 
Somehow, Hamas has managed to regroup its forces in the North (in areas which Israel had bulldozed) and the Middle of Gaza and has been attacking Israeli forces with devastating blows.
Israeli losses are huge. And things seem to be getting worse, not better. The situation, militarily and strategically, is untenable. This must have contributed to why Gallant has made this speech.
The only achievement which Israel has been able to do, was to destroy Gaza, kill and injure over 110,000 people, majority are women and children, which has turned the world public opinion against it and sent it to the International Court of Justice and ICC.

But that's not all. The UN General Assembly voted with a landslide majority to recommend that the Security Council reconsiders Palestine's application for  membership and has granted Palestine more rights and privileges. The world body approved the resolution by a vote of 143-9 with 25 abstentions.

But just when you think things could get any worse for the apartheid state, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, announced that he is seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, prime minister and minister of defense of Israel. Many European countries, traditionally faithful allies of Israel, had to adhere to their obligations and announced that that they will comply with the ICC arrest warrants, if such are indeed are issued by the judges. 

As if all this was not enough, Ireland, Spain and Norway just announced that they are recognizing Palestine as a state.

Only 4 days later, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately halt its Rafah military offensive, withdraw its troops, and open the crossings for humanitarian aid and assistance.

This may be the worst May which Israel has witnessed in its short history. The Month of May is when Israel commemorates its 'independence', and the founding of the state.

A Strategic Defeat

Strategically, Israel has been utterly defeated. A total defeat which will shake its very foundations for years, if any. I came to that conclusion because:

• Israel has failed to implement the "final solution" (ethnic cleansing of Gaza through pushing Gazans into the Sinai desert), after Egypt fortified the borders and announced that this will be a red line. Breaching that red line may lead to revoking the Peace Treaty.
• Israel has failed to destroy Hamas. As Israel pushes to the South, Hamas regrouped in the North and the Middle of Gaza.
• Israel has failed to free the hostages. Israel has killed more of its hostages than it has managed to release.
• Strategically, Israel has lost the world's public opinion. The global protests and condemnations, student encampment, and a social media sentiment of about 9:1 against Israel, all point to colossal strategic defeat and very hard times ahead. In fact, Israel's legitimacy, its very existence, is now being questioned.

With these difficult circumstances, Israel was facing very tough choices. But since the last article, more bad news for Israel has emerged.

The Final Solution

To keep his government afloat (and stay out of jail), Netanyahu had to subscribe to the right wing's dream (or nightmare) of the final solution. Ben Gvir and those on his bandwagon, believe that Palestinians must leave. At least to them this campaign is not really about Hamas, Oct 7 or even the hostages. It's about completing the job of ethnic cleansing which started in 1948. Their hope is that with enough pressure, Egypt will open the borders and let them in. They said it publicly so many times. They even suggested that the move will be temporary. But Palestinians of course know, once they are out, they will never see their homes again. Most residents of Gaza are themselves refugees and the descendants of those ethnically cleansed before from other parts of Palestine.

Why Rafah?

Why does Israel insist on invading Rafah, despite many reasons against the invasion:

• It is a very small area, crowding in it are almost one and a half million people. Most of them already evacuated from the North of Gaza or other places. The human cost will be catastrophic, further isolating Israel and entrenching its position as a pariah state.  
• Hamas has already regrouped in the North. So, why would Israel go after them in the South?
• The whole world is warning Israel not to do it. Even Biden stopped one arms shipment as a result of Netanyahu's stubbornness on the Rafah issue.

In my opinion, the reason why Israel is determined to invade Rafah, can be understood from its 1948 ethnic cleansing tactics. A village would be attacked from 3 directions, leaving a safe exit which the evicted residents could take, usually pointing to the nearest border.  
It is the same with Rafah. Rafah is the closest point in Gaza to the Egyptian border. By intensifying the attacks on Rafah, a humanitarian catastrophe will unfold, and Egypt will find itself forced to open the borders for humanitarian reasons. At least, this is what the 
settler extremists were hoping for.

Egypt Refused to 'Play Ball'

But Egypt 'refused' to play ball, and instead, announced that this is a red line not to be crossed. Crossing that line will mean suspending or revoking the Peace Treaty and worse. Egypt has since intervened in the ICJ genocide case, joining South Africa. Egyptian officials also made sure to clearly communicate the message to the Americans and Europeans. Pushing Gazans into Sinai is not to happen. 

What Comes Next?

With an arrest warrant, Netanyahu's position has become untenable. And since Gallant may also be expecting an arrest warrant, both have become toxic assets.

Can Gantz fill that void? Doubtful. Gantz seemed to have aligned himself with Biden and the polls show that if elections are held in Israel he would win, but who will call for elections?

Ben Gvir and Smotrich seem to cling to the "final solution" scenario, but with the entire world now looking at the ICJ genocide case and Netanyahu/Gallant potential arrest warrants, it is virtually impossible to actually implement their ethnic cleansing plans.

Israel will be facing turbulent times. It could even descend into a civil war. Ben Gvir has been arming and emboldening the settlers. This is why they attack Palestinians in the West bank and assault the aid trucks. It will be a tough job for the next government to stop them now.

In a way, the Israeli government is already divided.  While one part of the government attempts to find ways for food and aid to get into Gaza to keep their promises to the Americans (in order to maintain the flow of arms shipments, much-needed by the army which is facing unprecedented losses), another part (Ben Gvir et al), are supporting settlers who are vandalizing and burning the aid trucks.

The coming days may be carrying big changes. But we just have to wait and see what actually comes next.

Find a Solution or One will be Imposed upon you

Enough is Enough

Our Patience is Running out

By:

Wael Nawara

I look at the decades-long suffering of Palestinians and Gazans and I cannot help it but sympathize with them. I look at the centuries-long suffering and prosecution of Jews and I also cannot help it but sympathize with them as well. I think the whole world one way or another sympathizes with both sides. Each side has a touching story to tell and a number of seemingly good claims, be it religious, Biblical, Quranic, legal, civil, birth-right or otherwise.


But this sympathy, our sympathy, did not seem to have helped either party.


Palestinians and Israelis are somehow like cousins. Many Israelis and Palestinians look alike, cook alike and they even sound alike! But they have been fighting for decades and they seem to be determined to go on. I am not suggesting that they enjoy it, but it just seems that they will still go on fighting like that for a while.


Some friends ask me: “What is it to you? Why do you write or even bother to think about this? It is ultimately the Israelis and Palestinians who suffer and get to lose the most. So, it is up to them to find a solution.” In fact, they sadly point out, that the more they, Israelis and Palestinians suffer, the stronger their urge would be to find a settlement.


The trouble is, the bloody scenes are very disturbing. They haunt you. I mean, if the World will close an eye on murdering Gazan children or blowing up Israeli civilians, where does it stop? If the world had decided to close an eye on gassing Jews on the hands of the Nazi regime, the genocide against the people of Kosovo or Darfur where would we be today? Moreover, we are literally getting injured in the crossfire. When your neighbor’s home is on fire, you are bound to take an interest, lest the fire may spread to your own home and burn your own children too. And this is not just because we, in Egypt, are their next-door neighbors. Neighborhoods much farther away around the world in this global village, where borders and distances are ever diminishing, are also getting injured in the crossfire. The conflict has spilled over to many lands. It is fueling hatred and maniplulating extremist religious sentiments North, East, West and South.


In any conflict, a solution or a PATH, a strategy towards a solution, be it negotiation, arbitration, resorting to the Internal Court of Justice or the UN, should ideally come from the parties in concern: in this case Israelis and Palestinians. But this does not seem to be the case here. It simply does not work. Even wars, for many decades, did not work.


Several countries in the region, including Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Israel waged or got entangled in one war after another but wars never brought about a settlement to the original problem, the Israeli-Palestinian problem. So, they, or some of them, abandoned wars or pretended to be doing so and chose the path of peace, or appeared as if they had made that choice. Yet not a dawn of a solution even seemed remotely apparent at the horizon. We waited and waited, patiently hosting one round of negotiations and mediations after another, yet, the situation seems to only deteriorate.

Israel claims that Hamas is a terrorist organization which fires missiles indiscriminately at Israeli civilian population. That Arafat was a no-good greedy negotiator who showed no gratitude to generous Israeli offers. Palestinians claim that Israelis are using their military advantage to impose an unjust solution. Hamas says that it is a resistance movement which started with kids throwing stones facing armed soldiers who crushed the children's bones. Hamas further reminds us that such violent tactics were first used by the founding fathers of Israel including prominent members of successive Israeli cabinets, such as former Premiere Menachem Begin, also a former Irgun’s member, who was involved in the mass-murder of civilians in incidents such as the one which occurred in Deir Yasin in 1948 as well as the bombing of King David Hotel, Jerusalem, which was filled with civilians including women and children at the time, in 1946. If these were the heroes and founders of Israel, Hamas is following their seemingly successful example. After all, Israel managed to erect a state in 1948 through the use of such tactics and others. The other side claims that several warnings to evacuate King David Hotel prior to bombing were made and ignored. The dispute goes on.


I am personally getting fatigued by this whole situation. I no longer believe that negotiations can bring about a settlement which is deemed fair and acceptable by both parties. Maybe it is because of the power-parity, maybe because each side is clinging to its story and holy claims or whatever. Each party always complains that the other party is the one responsible for the failure of negotiations.


OK, how about we adopt a new direction, settlement through Binding Arbitration, say with the International Court of Justice. Arbitration seemed to have worked well for the Taba dispute between Egypt and Israel. Why shouldn’t it work for Israelis and Palestinians?


I think that the World Patience will one day soon come to an end. It will reach its limit. Our patience will just run out. And if the conflicting parties cannot reach an amicable solution, the WORLD must step in, find and impose a solution on their behalf, through the UN or through ICJ or whatever special court, where both parties are invited to make their claims and substantiate their case and are required to abide by the ruling. The International Community must have enough balls to enforce such a verdict/solution perhaps if necessary through economic sanctions, even blockade or by whatever means deemed fit.


We should tell them clearly and we should tell them now:


Find a solution or a solution will be imposed upon you by the International Community. Patience, sympathy and compassion are all great virtues. But everything has a limit.