Election Race Updates: Al Ahram Poll Shows Moussa Advancing

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/41592/Egypt/Politics-/AbulFotouh-dips,-Moussa-holds-steady-in-Ahram-pres.aspx

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A weekly opinion poll conducted by Egypt's Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies puts Mubarak-era foreign ministerAmr Moussa at the head of Egypt's presidential race with 40.8 per cent of the popular vote. This indicates a slight increase on the previous poll, in which he received 39 per cent.

Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, jumped to second place in this week's poll with almost 20 per cent, registering a 2-per cent increase on the last poll. Shafiq pushed former Muslim Brotherhood figure Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh into third place with 17.8 per cent – a decline from the 24 per cent the latter received in the previous poll.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi, meanwhile, maintained his fourth-place position – which he also secured in the previous poll conducted between 28 April and 1 May – with 9.4 per cent. Independent Nasserist candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi came in fourth place, with 7 per cent.

The poll also found that the percentage of undecided voters had increased from 10.7 per cent in the last poll to 15.3 per cent currently, indicating an increased level of confusion among sample voters.

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These last Polls according to our analysis support "Moussa - Morsi - Fotouh" scenario – although it does not show these candidates as finalists now because of the consideration which I made clear, that Morsi starts with low name recognition but the Muslim Brothers well-oiled election machinery will support him come election day.

So, we remain firm at our earlier forecast that the most likely candidates to become finalists are, in order of likelihood:

• Amr Moussa
• Morsi
• Fotouh

Further, should Moussa and Morsi reach finals, Moussa will win with at least 54% of the votes. He could reach 58% and even according to some estimates 62%