الخميس، أبريل 30، 2009

Bahaei Virus, Swine Flu & Religious Hysteria

مجلس الشعب يطالب

بتجريم الفكر البهائي وإعدام الخنازير!!



المشهد الأول:

مجلس الشعب يصدر


توصية "ملزمة" للحكومة بإعدام الخنازير!








ما صدقوا سمعوا عن انفلونزا الخنازير وفي 48 ساعة طلعوا توصية بإعدام الخنازير، رغم عدم ظهور المرض في مصر !



يا ترى الدافع هو الحرص على الصحة العامة ولا كره حيوان الخنزير المسكين بسبب الهوس الديني؟



طيب ولما تحصل وفيات من الإنفلونزا الأسيوية حنعمل إيه؟

حنعدم كل الأسيويين؟


ملحوظة: مصر هي الدولة الوحيدة في العالم التي ظهرت فيها الدعوة لإعدام كل الخنازير، ليس الخنازير المصابة أو الخنازير الموجودة بمزارع بها خنازير مصابة أو بالقرب من مزارع بها خنازير مصابة، ولكن كل الخنازير!
أنا مش معترض على نقل المزارع خارج الكتلة السكنية، أو تصحيح أوضاعها الصحية والبيئية، أو التنظيف أو الرعاية الصحية أو الرقابة البيطرية - كل ده واردإنما قتل 300 ألف حيوان بدل نقل المزارع؟ لا يمكن أن أضحك على نفسي وأتجاهل أن المحرك للقرار هو كراهية عميقة لدى الأغلبية لحيوان أصم واحتقار في اللاوعي لمن يأكلونه أو يربونه.

Egyptian Parliament demands killing of all pigs! Not infected animals, or animals in or near farms where disease symptoms are suspected, but ALL ANIMALS?

I hate the way these pig farms are operated - have been operated - for decades. The right decision would have always been to relocate to new areas out of the city with improved hygenic conditions and tight medical supervision. However I can NOT fool myself but see this in the context of deeply-rooted hate for the poor animal and negative feelings against those who eat it. Another facet of our religious hysteria.



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المشهد الثاني:

مجلس الشعب يطالب


بتجريم "الفكر" البهائي





"اليوم السابع: وسط تحذيرات برلمانية من انتشار الفكر البهائى داخل مصر، طالبت اللجنة المشتركة من الدفاع والأمن القومى والشئون الدينية بالبرلمان المصرى بإصدار قانون عاجل يجرم الفكر البهائى ومحاكمة المروجين له ... "

تعليق:


لجنة مشتركة من الدفاع والأمن القومي والشئون الدينية؟


طبعاً حرصاً على السلام الاجتماعي، شوفتوا العضو المحترم شكله مسالم ازاي في الصورة؟


طيب تجريم "الفكر" البهائي إزاي يعني؟



حيجيبوا جهاز كشف الفكر البهائي؟



يقعدوا "المتهم" بالفكر الوحش ويعملوله مسح ذري على دماغه ولو الجهاز حس بنشاط بهائي يصفر؟



دا بدل ما يقبضوا على المجرمين اللي حرقوا بيوت البهائيين وشردوهم؟



ولا يمكن الحرق ده كان عشان مواجهة الفيروس البهائي؟ زي انفلونزا الخنازير كده؟




Egyptian Parliament demands incriminating Bahaei "Thinking".

!!!!

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Many readers who usually like what I write, will not like what I wrote here. To all of you I will tell this. You most certainly will one day dislike what I say.

You will not always like what I write. Because I will always write what I believe to be right. And that is always bound to upset someone else!

الاثنين، أبريل 27، 2009

If Pakistan Falls

If Pakistan Falls



By:
Wael Nawara





The recent events in Pakistan force me to contemplate a theoretical question: What happens if Pakistan falls into the hands of Taliban or other extremist factions? This 173-million-people country possesses nuclear capability but the nation is largely divided between seculars and extremists. Taliban raised fears in Pakistan by seizing control of the Buner district close to the capital Islamabad and imposed what they consider as “Sharia’a Law”. Scenes of a public flogging of a 17-year old girl on the hands of Taliban early this month alerted the world to the threat. A Washington Post editorial on Sunday said that the Obama administration’s public warnings of Pakistan’s collapse caused panic. Clinton had used the term “existential threat” describing the situation perhaps to urge the Pakistani government to take action. “In the course of three days, the US secretaries of state and defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and the commanding general of American forces in the Middle East all publicly warned, in blunt and dire language, that Pakistan was facing an existential threat – and that its government and Army were not facing it,” the newspaper said.

President Asif Zardari’s government officials tried to play down the threat. But it seems that they are afraid that massive confrontation could spark off a wide civil war which the Pakistani army maybe unable to win. “The Threat is certainly real,” it said, however, and the Pakistan Army – “untrained in counterinsurgency and rigidly focused on India” – is either “reluctant to take on” the Taliban or “mostly ineffective”. But as Taliban forces expanded from Swat into the adjacent district of Buner, 100 kms from the capital, the United States made clear that it would attack Taliban forces in their Swat valley stronghold unless the Pakistan government stopped the militants’ advance towards Islamabad. But the key to this war is not the army. It is the divided nation of Pakistan. Like most other “Islamic” countries, Pakistan is divided between the modern and the old. Between the moderates and the fanatics. The seculars and the extremists. The key is how to develop a new cultural balance which will allow both to co-exist peacefully, before a de facto civil war erupts in all of these “Islamic” countries.



In 1947 there were only 189 madrassas or Islamic Schools in Pakistan. By 2002 the country had 10,000-13,000 unregistered madrassas with an estimated 1.7 to 1.9 million students. A 2008 estimate puts this figure at "over 40,000". So, these schools have collectively produced millions of Pakistani graduates who were taught in these “Islamic” schools which mostly teach extremist versions of Islam. Many of those “graduates” become radicalizing elements within their local societies. They command respect and influence people around them. Although you may meet many moderate Pakistanis, I have to admit that I was shocked to observe that some Pakistanis have developed some of the most extremist Islamic interpretations present today. Many of these extremist Pakistanis now live in Britain or other European countries where they teach or preach in local mosques and Islamic centers. Many others mingle with the population and spread their message amongst immigrant communities or Muslim minorities often feeling socially or economically excluded in their new societies.


If Pakistan falls, could this event trigger the official start of a formal World War III? I think the War or skirmishes of such had already started some time in 2001. But if Pakistan falls, knowing the situation in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen, then we have a very unstable position stretching on a potential battlefront covering many thousands of kilometers. Many other countries, Arab, European and otherwise, have large populations of Muslims ranging from moderates to fanatics. Which side are they going to take? And if more wars are to break out, will this trigger internal stability and radicalization in countries such as Egypt which are still dominated by “Moderates”, such that extremists will take control or gain increasing power? Has the self-fulfilling prophecy of Armageddon finally come to fateful realization? Extremists on both sides have the Armageddon “promise” in their mythology. Each believing that their “own God” will come to their rescue and guide their troops to the path of victory. But what the rest of us can see, is a trail of blood and destruction. Is there an end to this madness?


How does a right-wing-governed Israel fit into this picture? Israel and its atrocities in Palestine is often seen as “the” most potent fuel for radicalization and a major cause of the rise of extremism amongst Muslims around the world. But will the new US administration be able to talk the right-wing Israeli government into a peaceful settlement of a century-long conflict? A settlement with whom, when the Palestinian house is divided? Will such a solution come in time? What pressure can the US exercise over Israel? What is the impact on the internal US political scene?



Meanwhile, the needle of the radicameter in Pakistan as well as in many other places is pushing into the red. And the clock is ticking.

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Related Stories:


From The Times
April 27, 2009
The threat that forced a fight
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6176004.ece

Google

Taliban bar Pakistan army convoy as tension grows
By ASIF SHAHZAD
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkiMxbHNH0BqgpWA2ZG6VD6wVTmAD97PJIVG3


From The Sunday Times
April 26, 2009
Stop the Taliban now – or we will’
The US got tough with Pakistan as terrorists moved to within 60 miles of the capital
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6168940.ece

Pakistan Daily Times
US public warning of Pakistan collapse has risks
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009%5C04%5C27%5Cstory_27-4-2009_pg1_13

Pakistan Daily Times
PML-N asks Sufi Muhammad to disarm Taliban
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\04\27\story_27-4-2009_pg1_6



الأحد، أبريل 26، 2009

Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico

انفلونزا الخنازير في المكسيك




Swine Flu Outbreak in Mexico




There is a potentially serious outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico which may be spreading to other countries. US Center of Disease Control CDC, has not yet warned travellers to Mexico to avoid this destination but CDC is closely monitoring the situation.




As many as 1,000 potential cases are suspected in Mexico and 81 deaths may have been related to the spread of the virus. Only 20 deaths are confirmed to have resulted from contracting the virus in Mexico where face masks are being used to try to avoid the spreading of the outbreak. Local authorities have empowered health officials with emergency powers to try to face the threat. Emeregency measures included shutting down schools and events with large gatherings. Eleven cases are suspected in the US. Other cases are suspected in France, Newzealand and other countries, mainly in travellers coming back from Mexico.



Wash your hands and avoid contact with potentially infected persons or animals.




الثلاثاء، أبريل 21، 2009

Reform: The Missing Ingredients

Commentary on WSJ Article Titled:


The Missing Ingredients


By:

Wael Nawara



After 23 years of stagnation and confused economic policies, the regime in 2004 started to introduce some liberal economic policies which the liberal opposition has been demanding for many years. This may have been too little and too late. The effectiveness of such economic "reforms" is very low because:

· Lack of political reforms. Economic reform must be accompanied by political and social reforms to work.

· The regime's legitimacy has eroded to critically low levels. The regime only survives by relying on the Security forces.

· Absence of an overall vision with any level of local support. Egyptians are in a state of despair and confusion. People feel lost. They see no direction or future. The only hope for most is to immigrate or find a job in the gulf.

· Zero level of trust between the people and the regime

· Zero credibility which the regime has - people heard so much for so many years, why should they believe it now

· Wide corruption, abuse of power, monopolies within the regime and in the ranks of the very same people who are supposed to be introducing reform policies and legislations.

· Lack of legislative or administrative reforms.

· High level of bureaucracy and the very slow tempo of doing business with the government which still controls every aspect of life.

· Egyptians live in the Parallel State, the informal economy, parallel education, parallel justice, parallel medical care, parallel security, parallel political organizations, etc. Etc. Etc. This has rendered the formal state of little relevance.



The NDP has managed to give "liberal" policies a BAD name amongst Egyptians who now think that Liberalism is equal to business people manipulating the political scene to advance their lucrative monopolies. In light of current affairs, Egyptians has come to see privatization as means for the regime to "sell out" State-owned assets which are being given away at a fraction of their value to front-men, protégés and those willing to pay the highest bribes or commissions.


I am in opposition. In fact I am the head of the executive board in El Ghad Liberal Party. I even ran the Presidential Campaign for our party in Egypt’s first ever multi-candidate presidential elections in 2005 where our candidate, Ayman Nour came second. I, however, wrote in Al Masry Al Youm Daily, Egypt’s leading independent paper, in support of Ahmed Nazif’s policies in 2004 and 2005. I even wrote in El Ghad newspaper also supporting Nazif’s economic reforms. Simply because we had drafted many of these reforms in our own party agenda published in 2003. I even wrote in Al Masry Al Youm in 2005 about Gamal Mubarak, basically saying, yes, his position as a son of the President realistically allowed him to introduce some reforms, but this very fact is a sign of the inadequacy of the political system and the regime. Gamal may be a promising strategist, but if only the son of the President can advance certain policies, this is no longer a republic.


What needs to be done at the moment is to create a dialogue immediately and reach consensus not on economic policy, but on how to install a political process. This has a higher priority for the sake of medium-term stability which is a necessary condition for any economic reform to happen or continue to happen.



See Original Article By: Yaroslav Trofimov



الاثنين، أبريل 20، 2009

Venusian Day

If Only (2004)


Movie Review

*** This Review May Contain a Spoiler ***


I liked the romantic thread, the sliding-doors flavor and the idea that one can have a chance to change tragic life events. The movie’s idea of change was to come up with something even more tragic. The ending was pretty heroic, probably unnecessarily so. Never mind the limited acting talent of the lead actors. The only one who did some real acting was the taxi driver,
Tom Wilkinson.

This is not why I am writing this review. I am a bit puzzled by the length of the last day. They woke up, had breakfast, he went to work, then went to a hotel to give a presentation, then went to the pub, went to their apartment, went to her friend's apartment, went to Zinc gallery, then took the train to some distant location which could only be the Lake District, 4 hours away by train each way, climbed a mountain, went into a cabin, lit up the fire, went to a pub, took a walk over a bridge, took the train back to London, took the underground, went to London "I", went back to their apartment, changed, went to the photocopier's place, all of that and a few other small details, then had time to "show up" in her 7 o'clock graduation concert.

What kind of day is that? A day on Planet Venus **?




** A Day on Planet Venus is longer than its Year! A day on Venus takes about 243 earth days while a year on the same planet takes about 224 Earth days!


I Remember Shamu

I Remember Sham El Nessim



I remember that my mother would wake me up with the Strong Smell of an Onion, freshly cut in half! She would place the freshly cut onion near my nose ... so I would breathe in the smell and of course wake up ! Sometimes, it was my uncle who did it. My uncle usually would usually wake up quite late. But not on Shamu. He would come up early in the morning on that day, perform the "onion fright" ritual and then we would all go out.

I suspect that this tradition she inherited from her mother and my grandmother, Aziza, from fayoum, from her mother and so on ... I think this symbolized a process of driving "evil" spirits away with the strong smell ...In a way, it is a sobering moment ... the strong smell sobers you up and you realize many things about life.

The food itself symbolized life, prosperity and death ... The eggs - colored with so many natural colors - we usually used herbs or tea leaves or onion peel to dye the eggsAn egg represents life ... or the PROMISE of life ... did colored eggs represent the diversity of lives each of us would lead? We loved coloring the eggs, the boiled eggs of course. Sometimes when there is a crack in the egg, the color would sneak in and paint a thin spider-web shap on the egg white. Some bread rings or "semeet" would be baked with colored eggs inside.



The food also included green leafs - such as Lettuce or Malana (Green Chickpea) or Termis or Foul Herathi (Green Beans) ... symbolized also life, prosperity and freshness of the spring and the Harvest to come ...



The salted fish ... a little like mumified bodies of the dead ... did they symbolize the after-life? or the preservation of life? Where one life was to enter our bodies and take yet another journey in the circle of life? That one day we also are mortals. Such that we must now enjoy life and always remember that we are mortals?


I am not sure what it all meant ... but it was a day of joy ... often public places were too crowded ... but it was a must to go out ... people would often go to take a ride on the Nile. Often there were accidents when boats were overloaded because of the crowds. The Zoo and Kanater Khayeria were popular destinations which we never dared to visit on that day.



I remember that religion was important ... in the sense of the values of goodness, kindness, compassion and love ... not in the sense of exclusion, hatred, external costumes or fake facades ... Mothers ... women of Egypt, played an important role in preserving the culture and the language ... when the language was banned ... mother spoke the beautiful natural words of the land in the ears of the youngsters - and reminded them of the traditions ... my mom always spoke about the seasons and the weather in terms of the Egyptian months ...Amshir and Hatour and Keyhak etc.


Celebration of Shamu must have been the most vivid ancient tradition to survive. The Nile Day, or Wafa'a El Nil is no longer celebrated, it is only Shamu that survived. Thanks to our mothers ...

We must remember ...


الأحد، أبريل 19، 2009

Happy Easter -
Remembering Shamu




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Happy Easter Twice

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تهنئة خاصة بعيد القيامة
و
نهنئة خاصة بشم النسيم
Shamu
Sham El Nessim

عيد مصري خالص

نحتفل به منذ أيام القدماء

علمتنا أمهاتنا تقاليد الاحتفال به

رغم تباين أدياننا

إلا أن عيد شم النسيم هو عيد لنا كلنا

كل شامو - عيد القيامة - عيد الفصح - شم نسيم وانتم جميعاً ومصر بخير

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Remembering Shamu (Shemu)
الأصول المصرية لعيد القيامة وشم النسيم

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http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=4967019140&topic=11112







السبت، أبريل 18، 2009

To the Last Heart-Beat

هو لسه فيه قادمة؟

نتيجة رائعة:
مبارك يحصل على
39%
نسبة تأييد في صفحته الخاصة
على الفيسبوك لانتخابه لولاية قادمة

في صفحة المؤيدين الخاصة به على الفيسبوك Fan Page، حصل الرئيس مبارك على 39% من تأييد المشاركين في استفتاء حول انتخابه لولاية قادمة، بينما بلغت نسبة المعارضين 53% ونسبة غير المتأكدين حوالي 7%. والجدير بالذكر أن عدد الأعضاء في صفحة أنصار الرئيس يبلغ 1286 مؤيداً، بالمقارنة بحوالي 4626 مؤيد لعمرو موسى وزير الخارجية المصري الأسبق والأمين العام لجامعة الدول العربية حالياً، و817 مؤيد لأيمن نور الذي حصل على المركز الثاني في أول انتخابات رئاسية في مصر والتي أجريت عام 2005، وسجن بعدها نور إلى أن أفرج عنه في فبراير 2009. أما الملك عبد الله، عاهل الأردن فله العديد من صفحات الأنصار على الفيسبوك، تبلغ العضوية في أكبرها أكثر من 23 ألف مؤيد. أما باراك أوباما فيبلغ عدد أنصاره أكثر من 6 مليون مؤيد. وبمقارنة الساسة بالفنانين في المنطقة العربية، تأتي النتيجة لصالح الفنانين بنسبة ضخمة، فعلى سبيل المثال يبلغ عدد أعضاء أكبر صفحات نانسي عجرم على الفيسبوك 151 ألف معجب، بينما يبلغ نفس العدد 115 ألف معجب بالنسبة لعمرو دياب.

وجاء السؤال على صفحة الرئيس مبارك كالتالي: "هل تنتخب الرئيس لفترة قادمة؟"، وجاءت تعليقات الفيسبوكرز على الاستفتاء متباينة:

· "انا حاسه ان احنا هانموت وهو هايفضل عايش وساعتها هايستورد شعب يطلع عينه برضه".
· "هاهاها .. حلوة .. هو لسة في مرة قادمة فعلاً؟ ... ده يبقى حظ ... "
· انا اتولدت وهو رئيس يارب مش عايز أموت وهو رئيس
· على ما اعتقد ان الجيل ده كله اتولد وهو رئيس وامنيه حياته انه يبعد بقى
· معرفش ليه إفتكرت مشهد فى مسرحية والراجل المهكع إياه بيقول عن نفسه فى السبعين ربيعاً،وحط عليهم عشرة،وكمان فترة قادمة،ومعانا سبعة!!هههههههه
· هو لسة فيه قادمة صحيح
· انا شفته اكتر من ما شفت ابويا الله يرحمه
· المشكلة فى انه لسه شايف نفسه يصلح بعد كل ده مش قادر يواجه نفسه بالحقيقة
· المشكلة الاكبر انه معتقد ان الشعب بيحبه ومش عايز يسيبه
· سر التحنيط هو السبب
· استنى ما تعلنش النتائج - انا لسة ما قلتش كلمتى
· هى جات في جمل، الأختام فى إيدنا والإرقام فى إيدنا،الفترة القادمة بـ 99% ،محدش يزعل الراجل على الأواخر


بينما كانت التعليقات على صفحة الرئيس أكثر تعاطفاً:

· آه والله اجمد رئيس و انشاء الله تستمر فى اللى انت مخطط له وهنينتخبك تانى
· والله العظيم أحسن رئيس جمهورية في العالم كله ...ربنا يخليك لينا
· مش كتير اللي حاسيس بيك ....بس أن شاء الله الجنة ليك
· والله مفيش بنى ادم كامل، ويكفى الرئيس الاداءالمتميز على المستوى الدولى، فرايى المشاكل الداخليه (اللى جوه مصر)، بسبب سوء البطانه المحيطه به، وموضوع التوريث ده طبع فى كل انسان مين مبيحبش انه يقعد ابنه فى مكانه بعده، اذا كان حاسس انه مكان كويس
· رجعلنا مصر اللى بنحبها يا ريس ...عاوزينها زى زمان جميلة وقوية وذكية وتقطع رقبة اى حد يحاول يتجرأ علينا او عليها


وقد تولى مبارك الحكم في 14 أكتوبر 1981، أي منذ حوالي 28 عاماً، خلفاً للرئيس السادات، وهو الآن في النصف الثاني من الولاية الخامسة. والجدير بالذكر أن الدستور المصري كان يسمح بتولي الرئيس الولاية بحد أقصى فترتين بإجمالي 12 عاماً، إلى أن جاء اقتراح بتعديل من مجلس الشعب على أن يصبح منطوق المادة "مدد أخرى" بدلاً من "مدة أخرى"، وطرح هذا الاقتراح في استفتاء على الشعب مع مجموعة أخرى من المواد ضمنها "أن تصبح الشريعة الإسلامية هي المصدر الرئيسي للتشريع"، ولكن اغتيال السادات على أيدي الجماعات الإسلامية (!) حال بينه وبين الاستفادة من هذا التعديل، ليستفيد به نائبه وخليفته مبارك، الذي يعد واحد من أطول رؤساء العالم مكوثاً في الحكم يسبقه في هذا كاسترو ومعمر القذافي.

وهناك أجيال متعددة ولدت ونشأت في أثناء حكم مبارك، بل أن هناك حوالي 60% من المصريين لم يعاصروا أي رئيس آخر لمصر بما يفسر التعليقات. ورغم أن مبارك سيبلغ من العمر 81 عاماً خلال أسابيع وتحديداً يوم 4 مايو القادم إلا أنه لم يقم للآن بتعيين نائب له، بل صرح بأنه سوف يظل في كرسي الحكم حتى آخر نفس، أو "ما ظل القلب ينبض"، على حد تعبيره في خطاب أمام مجلس الشعب وسط تصفيق الأعضاء الموقرين وابتهاجهم بهذه البشارة السارة والأنباء السعيدة، التي تعني استمرار النخبة الحاكمة المرفوضة من الشعب في مقاعدها، حيث يتمتع الحزب الوطني الحاكم الذي يرأسه مبارك بأغلبية ساحقة في المجلس، رغم أنه لم يحصل في الانتخابات الماضية سوى على 32% من اصوات الناخبين، بينما لم تتجاوز نسبة الناخبين 23% ، من إجمالي المقيدين في الجداول الانتخابية، أي أن الحزب الوطني "الديمقراطي" الحاكم يجلس في مقاعد الحكم بتأييد حوالي 7.34% فقط من الناخبين بفرض عدم وجود تزوير أو تجاوزات أخرى.

وبالتالي فإن مستوى هذا التأييد لانتخاب مبارك لفترة قادمة (39%) يعد في أفضل الأحوال نسبة عالية جداً، وقد يكون هذا لأسباب متعددة، أهمها أن الصفحة التي تستضيف الاستفتاء هي مخصصة لمناصري مبارك نفسه. ومع هذا فيجب أن نقر بأن نتيجة التصويت على الإنترنت وعلى الفيسبوك قد لا تعبر بدقة عن آراء المصريين، حيث لا يزيد عدد أعضاء الفيسبوك عن حوالي مليون مصري من أصل ما يزيد عن 50 مليون مصري في سن الانتخاب.


والجدير بالذكر أن أحد استطلاعات الرأي على الإنترنت على موقع http://weekite.blogspot.com/ كان قد أجري بعد حريق مجلس الشورى للتعرف على أسباب ردود أفعال المصريين تجاه الحريق المشاعر، جاءت نتيجته أن 89% من المشاركين في الاستطلاع أكدوا أن البرلمان لا يعبر أبداً عن المصريين، بينما قال 7% أن البرلمان يعبر عنهم أحياناً. و بالمقارنة بنسبة رفض المصريين لممثليهم من البرلمانيين والتي بلغت 89% كما أسلفنا، ونسبة التأييد التي حصل عليها الرئيس مبارك، نقول أن الرئيس مبارك يستحق التهنئة على هذه النتيجة الرائعة.








للدخول على موقع الاستفتاء قبل إزالته أو تغير النتيجة



صور الشاشة التي توضح نتيجة الاستفتاء تم التقاطها يوم 18 إبريل 2009 بين الساعة 12 ظهراً والساعة 3م بتوقيت القاهرة.


See the page and the poll result before they are removed. Snap-shot taken on April 18th 2009, at noon, Cairo Local Time.


Terms of Endearment

Mubarak Gets Only 39%

Support on His Own


Facebook Fan Page




By:
Wael Nawara


On his own Facebook fan page, only 39% of those who participated in a poll that is hosted on the same page said they would vote for Mubarak for another term (a 6th Term), while 52% said they would not elect him and 7% were undecided. The fan page has only about 1,284 fans. To put this in perspective, Amr Mousa, Egyptian ex-Foreign Minister, currently serving as Secretary General for the Arab League, has 4,626 fans, Ayman Nour who came second in 2005 Egyptian Presidential Elections and who has just been released from jail, has 817 fans on his page, King Abdullah of Jordan has over 23 thousand fans while Barack Obama has over 6 million fans. Nancy Ajram, a Lebonese female Singer has over 151 thousand fans and Amr Diab, an Egyptian male singer has 115 thousand fans.


The poll on Mubarak's fan page asked this question: “Will you vote for President Honsi Mubarak for another Term?”. Seeing results of the poll, Egyptian Facebookers comments were hilarious. Someone said, "I was born and he (Mubarak) is a president, I just have one wish. On the day of my death, I hope he is not a president". Another said, “Is there still in the bag yet another term?”. Mubarak has been in office for the past 28 years, since 1981. About 60% of Egyptians have never known another President. Mubarak, who is 81 years old, has recently “vowed” to stay in office as long as he breathes! “As long as my heart beats, I will stay”, were his very words in an address to the Egyptian People's Assembly, widely dominated by members of his ruling party the NDP. The honorable members applauded this announcement of their boss who is "promising" to stay as a president till the very last pulse as if it was a precious gift. Mubarak celebrates his 81st birthday on the coming 4th of May.



Youth of the 6th April movement vowed to give him a host of birthday gifts this year. Last year, 6th April youth called for a general strike on 4th May 2008 to commemorate Mubarak’s 80th Birthday and protest sky-rocketing prices and high rates of inflation. Mubarak made a pre-emptive strike by announcing a 30% increase in wages to curb the strike. Because of this and other factors, the 4th May 2008 strike was not as successful as the 6th 2008 April strike which was also a novelty. The sequel strikes, including that on 6th April 2009, which was declared as “Day of Rage”, never seemed to match the original strike in intensity. The fact that the government had to increase the wages and respond to many of the strikers’ demands is surely seen as a sign of success. The success of 6th April strike of 2008 is also seen as a milestone and a sign of change to come, that a few individuals using viral communication and social utility tools like the Facebook can break the state-owned media blackout, amass great popular support and exert critical political pressure on authoritarian regimes.


The level of support for Mubarak’s next term (39%) is probably higher than the real level of support, since the Poll is hosted on Mubarak’s own fan page. There are about one million Egyptians using Facebook out of about 10 millions who have “some” access to the Internet one way or another. In a recent online poll conducted on this blog, 89% of participants thought that the “People’s Assembly” does not truly represent them as Egyptians. So, I would say congratulations are in order for the President.





See the page and the poll result before they are removed. Snap-shot taken on April 18th 2009, at noon, Cairo Local Time:


http://www.facebook.com/pages/-/27537274055#/pages/-/27537274055?v=wall&viewas=691420567




السبت، أبريل 11، 2009

From the Archives:
Press Release, 20 October 2007

ضد الدولة الدينية



من أرشيف 2007

بيان صحفي صدر بعد قراءة برنامج منسوب للإخوان المسلمين



صدر هذا البيان بتاريخ 20 أكتوبر 2007




لقد دخلنا المعترك السياسي والفكري في حب مصر، وليس من أجل أي شخص أو جماعة أو لتحقيق أي هدف شخصي أو مادي. البرنامج الذي أعلنه الاخوان هو بمثابة إعلان حرب لاغتيال الدولة المصرية المدنية، وهو خط أحمر لا ينفع معه التمسح باسم أي شخص أو دين أو فصيل، ولا يصح معه عمل أية مواءمات سياسية أو مجاملات شخصية أو حزبية. لقد نصحنا بعض الزملاء بتجاهل الأمر وعدم التعليق على برنامج الإخوان، بحجة أن انتقاد البرنامج يفتح علينا جبهات عدائية لا داع لها، وقد يضر بشعبية الحزب في الشارع، وهنا أقول:

  • أن السعي وراء شعبية تقوم على الزيف والنفاق والتعامي عن مصلحة الوطن هو أمر رخيص لا نقبله
  • أننا نرفض أن تقوم أية جهة أو جماعة باحتكار الدين أو إضفاء وضعية قدسية على سياساتها الدنيوية
  • أن الأغلبية العظمى من الشعب المصري واعية بمصالحها وقادرة على تمييز من يتاجرون بالدين لأهداف سياسية دنيوية


إننا الآن نتحدث عن مستقبل الدولة المدنية المصرية وهي بعد جنين نحلم به، فأن يأتي الآن أي فصيل بأجندة هدفها قتل هذا الجنين، ووأد هذا الحلم، فإنه يصبح واجباً علينا أن نتصدى له بكل ما نملك من قوة، ومن حق مصر علينا أن نعلن موقفنا الواضح والرافض لمثل هذه التوجهات التي تعود بنا إلى الوراء، بل أنه من حق الإخوان علينا أن ننبههم إلى خطورة ما يطرحونه، ولعلنا رأينا بعض أصوات العقل داخل الإخوان وبالذات من جيل الشباب، تدعو إلى مراجعة هذا الموقف المؤسف، أما السكوت على البرنامج، بحجة أن الإخوان فصيل معارض يقف معنا في خندق واحد، فهو يعطي إشارة خاطئة للشعب والتيارات السياسية بما فيها الإخوان، ويحرم الإخوان من فرصة مراجعة النفس، ويقايض المصالح العليا للبلاد بثمن بخس، وهي تجارة سياسية بائرة لأنها تفتقر إلى النزاهة وتبيع أمانة الكلمة والرأي، وتكتم الشهادة في وقت كاشف.


إننا كما أعلنا موقفنا واضحاً في كل صغيرة وكبيرة، ووقفنا بقوة مع استقلال القضاء، وضد حبس الصحفيين، وضد اعتقال الإخوان أنفسهم، فإننا نعلنها اليوم بكل وضوح وصراحة، لا للدولة الدينية، ولا لولاية الفقيه، وعاشت مصر دولة مدنية حرة مستقلة.





وائل نوارة



الاثنين، أبريل 06، 2009

Day of Rage






Day of Rage



By:
Wael Nawara


Columns and Columns of heavy police carriers moved in downtown, days ago in anticipation. Arrests were made in various governorates. Regime-sponsored attempts to discredit the movement and the youth organizing it utilized huge billboards all over Cairo amongst many other free media. Rage, however, was unstoppable.


“Where are our national resources? What did you do with our money?” Chanted demonstrators at the footsteps of the Press Syndicate, led by Kamal Khalil and much younger leaders of the youth protest movement of “6 April”. “Egypt is a rich country”, explained one of the protestors, almost to himself. “It has been systematically robbed off by successive corrupt regimes. The fact that we can still find bread to eat despite corruption and misgovernment, is a testament to Egypt’s unbelievable wealth.”


“How many terms do you want?” another series of chants broke off. After 28 years in office, in the middle of a staggering fifth term, no one has any sympathy left to Mubarak’s claims that “stability comes first”. Egyptians seem to have had “Enough” of this brand of stability. “Stability, stability, whenever we demand change they flash out the stability card. Their stability in the seats of power has meant stagnation for Egypt and poverty for Egyptians. Enough is enough.” Another protestor explained. The yellow signs of “Kifaya”, literally meaning “Enough” were in abundance, in various shapes and forms. Kifaya leaders participated in the chanting.





A Folkloric piece of chants was to follow. It portrayed key symbols of corruption and their infamous deeds. From bribery filling one guy’s oversized belly, unconstitutional laws tailor-made by another of the regime’s men, specially designed to sustain the power monopoly, corruption and enhance the regime’s grip on things, to cancer-causing pesticides imported, widely distributed and sponsored yet by another of the those high officials. There was a special verse for NDP leaders accused of abuse of power in building steel monopolies and other lucrative cartels and concessions. The chanting went on.


The chants then turned to the poor conditions of the soldiers working in the security and compared the meager wages of the soldiers to the generous benefits of their superiors. A smart move to win the troops hearts! Apparently there was no need for that tactic. Many of the police officers on the scene could not hide their unspoken sympathy with the cause of the protestors. Soldiers and officers, everyone suffers from the high prices and the stinking corruption at the highest levels. Abdel halim Kandil, Kamal Khalil, Mohamed Abdel Koddos and Ayman Nour were amongst the hundreds of demonstrators, barricaded by thousands of security forces. But the majority of the protestors were from a young angry generation that has never known any president but Mubarak. They carried Egyptian flags, hand-made banners of protest, Kifaya signs, and many wore orange scarves distinctive of El Ghad Party members.





And so on went the day. Hours earlier Ayman Nour, George Ishak, Anwar Sadat and a few other opposition leaders announced the release of “Cairo Declaration” at the State Commissioners Court, the highest administrative court in Egypt, demanding election of a national assembly responsible for drafting a new constitution which can guaranty dignity, liberty and human rights for every Egyptian while limiting the wide powers enjoyed by the presidential establishment. Esraa Abdel Fattah and other young activists who started the 6th April movement in 2008 on Facebook also read articles of the ten-point declaration. The ten-point declaration demanded freedom of the press and election of all officials from village mayors to the president through a clean, transparent and democratic process. Ayman Nour announced that “We shall engage other opposition streams in developing a final version of this preliminary draft. We will then go door-to-door, to every Egyptian village, town and city to ask for support from our fellow Egyptians and collect as many signatures as we can on this declaration. The time for change has come and we shall together work to make it happen. If these demands are not met within the next twelve months, we call for a general strike and a state of civil disobedience on 6th April 2010, exactly one year from today.” Ayman Nour stands behind the idea of the Cairo Declaration and for the past month worked on gathering support around it. The same demands were announced at the Lawyers Syndicate and at several other governorates all over Egypt simultaneously.





One word. Rage. But will this rage continue to gather momentum as to actually put sufficient weight behind this demands? Or will the regime manage to bleed off a wee bit of the pressure with some phony appearances of reform and meanwhile buy time to survive for a few more years as it has skillfully managed to do for decades? Will opposition truly stand united behind a unified goal and engage the average Egyptian man and woman to support the cause of reform? I think the answer to this very last question will determine the fate and fruits of this rage over the coming days, weeks and months.






الأحد، أبريل 05، 2009

Death of Privacy





Death of Privacy

And the Rise

Of the Collective

Big Brother





By:
Wael Nawara



I have recently observed a number of notes written by fellow Facebookers in which they would describe, in varying levels of detail, “romantic relationships” which they allegedly have had with other friends on Facebook. The underlying motive in most of these “notes” would seem to be taking revenge once the relationship had gone sour. But the peculiar thing is this. None of these notes would go as far as to mention the actual name of the other party “involved”. Instead, the plaintiff, would lay out sufficient personal details as to expose the alleged “perpetrator” before other fellow Facebook friends or acquaintances. I say “perpetrator” because this is how the “person” is described. A savage inconsiderate beast. Of course, none of these adjectives had been used when the relationship was good and running. But the trick is, once they break up, the one who starts to publicize this corners the “defendant” who in fact is bullied into silence. To avoid a scandal, the “defendant” would refrain from making a comment so that he or she does not directly commit to being a party to the broken affair and the recipient of the generously designated infamous adjectives of evil. The harm, nevertheless, is done, and the “defendant’s” reputation is tarnished. He or she can never tell their side of the story. Yet, they stand in fact victims of a one-sided virtual trial which sentence they cannot appeal.


For the past decade and a half, we have managed to live by while our names, photos, news, personal data and private stuff was being violated. We survived this “invasion” of our privacy. But for relationships, romances, affairs and break-ups to publicly go online, this marks the end of privacy. I do not see this phenomenon as a new trend in romantic relationships. I see this as an announcement for the death of privacy or what remained of it. The frightening penetration of Facebook, My-space, Twitter and other virtual social communities adds a lot of leverage to this loss of privacy. What you say or write in confidence to someone, can possibly be advertised by that person or worse, by a hacker, and exposed to the whole 200 million users of Facebook or the 1 billion users of the Internet! Unlike older chat communities, such as “Yahoo Chat” where everyone was using some screen name or a handle which protected their real identities, Facebook came with a new concept: no face, no book, so you either shared your real name, photo and personal details or no one will feel comfortable enough to “add” you as a friend. It is like this giant nude beach party where the only condition to being invited is to show up naked yourself! It worked. People just put their real names and photos and stepped into the global village where anyone can know everything about anyone else.


We got so absorbed, in fact sucked into this virtual universe that many of us would update their “status” several times a day using their mobile phones, to tell the rest of the world what they are up to, where they are and how they feel. We shared our photos, photos of our children and loved ones with the entire Internet-using world. Anyone now can know our birth date, our entire education and job history, music and movies we like, even watch our friends’ photos and learn their hobbies.


We live our lives naked. Why do we do that? Is it because we are exhibitionist by nature and have been just waiting all along for the chance to be ourselves? Are we just lonely and we are trying to find someone, anyone to communicate with? Are we just randomly tossing away bottles into the deep wide ocean and hoping that someone somewhere will read the message, possibly like what is there enough to get back to us, even befriend us for whom we are?


This desperate and random exchange of billions of message-carrying-bottles every day, however, has come at such a price. At the cost of our own privacy. Some would argue, what is the value of privacy if there is nothing happening in our lives in the first place. Nothing interesting, exotic and out of the ordinary that is. So, we trade privacy for communication and potential action.


Should we just share our lives on the screen with whoever cares to watch in a giant random “Truman Show” where everyone basically knows that they are being watched? Should we mourn our privacy or celebrate our new friends? Should we guard our secrets or snoop into those of everyone else so that we are all equally exposed! Is privacy over-rated? Does the apparent loss of privacy make us behave in a better way? Become better netizens, since everything we say or do can be found out, reported and publicized for and or against us? Isn’t this “familiarity” what enforced a certain behavioral code in little villages where everyone knew everyone else? A code which was less observed in the city where people could go wild anonymously?


On the other hand, isn’t our privacy what makes us unique? Makes us who we are? I mean, if we feel watched all the time by some “collective Big Brother”, wouldn’t we just think and behave as we are “expected to”? Would we try to become who we should be rather who we really are? Would we just lose our uniqueness, innocence, spontaneity, innovation and become copies of the same “standard and approved person”?




For some reason, somehow, I do mourn privacy and regret its death. The death of a world where you could one day, not too long ago, think loudly sometimes, without finding your thoughts played on YouTube the next day.



الأربعاء، أبريل 01، 2009

Clapping with both the Visible
and the Invisible Hands 1






The Market

and the

Splitting of "Self"






By

Wael Nawara





How did it all happen? What went wrong? Does the market no longer work?


I have some good news and I have some bad news. The good news is: yes. Markets work. The bad news is, our world is not a perfect world. At least, it is not perfect in the sense described in Economic Theory Books for the Invisible Hand to do all the work. This time, the Visible Hand must help the Invisible Hand do its thing.


Markets do not operate in vacuum. They do not operate in Wonderland. They operate in our imperfect world. If we want markets to work, we must realize how our real world differs from the perfect world of Perfect Market Theories.


“Self” Interest

In October 2008, Alan Greenspan said: “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity -- myself especially -- are in a state of shocked disbelief”. OK. Let me spell it out. The problem lies in the word “self-interest”. The fact is, Market Theory is based on an assumption that both sellers and buyers will take decisions in their best interest. But since separation of management and ownership ages ago, the word “self” is no longer valid. There is no self. Who is to say which “self”? Is it the managers, workers, short-term owners (usually speculators and quick cap gain seekers) or long-term owners, those who really have the long-term “interests” of the “self” in mind, heart and pocket?


First, let us say that for the Market to work, we need laws, courts and enforcement to protect the idea of personal property or ownership. The market will not work if the concept of property is not there or is unprotected. To buy, is to obtain the title of ownership of the goods bought. So, we need a “regulator” in that area to start with. This means erecting a government to make laws, build courts, hire enforcement officers, or even agree on an arbitrary body elected to take these responsibilities if you are an anarchist.


Now, when a Loan Officer knowingly approves a loan to a borrower who will most likely default, does he commit a crime or not? He and his superiors who allow such practices, have compromised the long-term “interests” of the shareholders, the seller really, for now, the “real” owner of the money lent. When someone else introduces what is known as Teaser-Rates, where unqualified borrowers are lured into borrowing amounts they can never repay, by setting up a scheme of Introductory Payments which are significantly LOWER than Real payments to come, overtly promoting the business and covertly to delay the delinquency, or the discovery of default on such a loan, again, that should that person, his bosses and watchdogs all combined be locked up?


These officers and managers deliberately act AGAINST the best interests of their OWN employer, their own shareholders, for now, the real owners who pay their FAT salaries and bonuses hoping that such generous compensation will make those officers look after the owners “self” interests. They trust them to protect their assets. Such hope was proved false. Such trust was systemically ill-placed. Why? Because the more those officers lend, the more they make “temporary” profits of money which is not really theirs or even owned by their company. Everybody borrows from somebody else. And the leverage ratios are staggering. They can reach 1:100. Meaning that an intermediary could have debts of $100 million (in funds borrowed from real banks or yet some other intermediaries) and assets of $101 million (in toxic loans to unqualified mortgages). This company has an equity of only $1 million but is gambling with $100 million! Great! What makes things even better, they securitize their toxic assets yet with some third company which means they transfer the risk to another entity. And the other company transfers the risk to another. And so on. It is the perfect bubble. A perfect pyramid scheme of defrauding the real owners of the money, the simple depositors in real banks, of their hard-earned money.


A Pyramid Scheme?

El Rayan and El Saad of Egypt’s famous pyramid scheme of the 80’s are innocent kindergarten toddlers compared to these guys whom we can never really blame because we all knew and all watched. So, the loan officers and the CEOs get their FAT bonuses for these seemingly marvelous achievements. These achievements, however, are short-lived. Like all fraudulent schemes. Eventually they are exposed when the pay-back comes. Like all bubbles, they eventually burst. Into tears. Only someone else’s tears. So, have the officers and their superiors committed a crime? It depends. By the time the company, or the economy for that matter, collapses, those officers would have retired - or are happy to retire - and live comfortably on the ILLEGAL or semi-legal fortunes they had made by abusing the power given to them.


The Perfect Theory is based on one assumption. That a seller would always work to achieve his best economic interests. But what happened here is that the SELLER (who really owns the business) is different from the SELLER who represented him at the time of giving the loans or selling the merchandise. Both people (albeit being labeled as the seller) have Different Interests. This is a clear case of Conflict of Interests. Worse, the managers who set the Lending Policies inside the seller's organization have a different set of interests as well. Worst still. The Short-Term Investors who bought the stocks of the Sellers company, do NOT really care about the Long-Term interests of the Company. Because they make a quick buck of capital gains (speculation) and then they sell the stocks and go their way. Another set of conflicting interests. Worse still. Even the long-term owners, they do not really own the money which their employees had lent or even a fraction of it. Their highly leveraged company borrowed the money. They will not, in theory, suffer from the consequences because their toxic waste is securitized with some other company who in-turn transfers the risk to another company and so on. The chain is long, sophisticated, complicated and everyone is closing an eye or even two.


The money, at the end of a very long chain, truth be said, is owned by some poor guy who deposits his savings in a local bank. Or a group of guys who cut a piece of their salary and save it in a pension fund. Or some foreigner, Arab, Japanese or Korean High Net-worth Individual or Foreign Bank (and its depositors) who trusts Uncle Sam enough to buy treasury bills which are systemically used to cover an $11 trillion public budget deficit and rising and an enormous amount of US private consumer credit. Truth be said, everyone is accused of greed. Everyone, one way or another, knew, or at least felt that it was too good to be true. Well, guess what? It ain’t true.


Governance

Now, to prevent all these crimes and misdemeanors, regular police cannot go snooping around in the books and policy guideline papers of investment companies and banks. Hence a lucrative job of someone else is created. This is the SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission. Here the regulator’s job will be to install measures and policy guidelines to make sure that the practices of the management provide a balance between the interests of all stakeholders involved. These guidelines become amongst the Rules of INTERNAL GOVERNANCE of every investment company. But we still have a big PR job to try to rid the public of this blinding greed. Then figure out what to do with the United States of America who insists on providing unsustainable lifestyle to its lucky citizens on the expense of the rest of the world. By the way, the $11 trillion, these are just the public debt. Private US debt to foreign creditors is probably many times more than that.

Splitting of “Self”

The simple Conflict of Interests has arisen from complexities and sophistication, sometimes deliberate over-sophistication designed to boggle anyone who tries to trace the leakage. For instance, conflict of interest and the “splitting of the self” came when we separated Management from Ownership. A modern management MUST-DO. It came with these fancy derivatives which transfer risk and responsibility to someone else. It came when speculation became more lucrative, and therefore more important, than working the land, producing gadgets or waiting on tables, serving others, providing real value. Today, some argue that out of each $1, ninety four cents would come from virtual economy. Where no real value is added. Fiction money. This is when “the self was split”. It reminds me of “splitting the atom”. It unleashes such a great deal of uncontrollable power. And I am not just talking about heat, pressure or radiation. I meant the power to corrupt human conscience.


With freedom also comes responsibility.


With great power comes even greater responsibility.


Let us hope that those who have power and the liberty of using that power have actively operating conscience and an adequate sense of responsibility.



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