Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Egypt Remembers October 2

العبور

ساعة الصفر والعبور:
بناء على الدراسة التي قامت بها هيئة العمليات بقيادة اللواء الجمسي، كانت هناك 3 مجموعات من التوقيتات المناسبة للعبور بما يحقق أفضل ظروف مواتية لعبور قواتنا ونجاحها في تنفيذ المهام التالية للعبور، ويكون العدو في ظروف غير مواتية للقتال، وكانت أفضل الأيام كما جاء بالدراسة هو يوم 6 من أكتوبر 1973، وقرر الرئيس السادات بعد التشاور مع القادة ومع الرئيس الأسد تحديد ساعة الصفر لتكون الثانية بعد ظهر يوم السبت السادس من أكتوبر / تشرين أول 1973 م العاشر من رمضان 1393 هـ ، وعند تمامها كانت القوات التى بدأت الهجوم المصري تتألف من:


مائتين واثنتين وعشرين طائرة تقوم بالضربة الأولى على مواقع العدو الحساسة فى الجبهة المصرية من مطارات ومحطات الشوشرة ومراكز القيادة والسيطرة، ومائة طائرة تقوم بنفس العمل على الجبهة السورية.

ألفي (2000) مدفع تطلق قذائفها بكثافة نيرانية هائلة علاوة على مجموعة كبيرة من الصواريخ التكتيكية أرض-أرض، تفتح نيرانها ضد الأهداف الإسرائيلية فى حصون خط بارليف و ما خلف هذا الخط من مواقع دفاعية ووحدات المدفعية. و استمر القصف لمدة ثلاث وخمسين دقيقة، وكان معدل قصف النيران شديداَ بحيث سقط على المواقع الإسرائيلية فى الدقيقة الأولى عشرة آلاف و خمسمائة قذيفة مدفعية بمعدل مائة و خمس و سبعين دانة فى الثانية الواحدة.
ثمانية آلاف رجل ينزلون إلى قوارب المطاط لبدء الموجة الأولى للعبور. واندفع المشاة يعبرون القناة في القوارب المطاطية، وكانت القوات الخاصة قد قامت بسد مواسير الغاز التي خطط العدو لاستخدامها في إشعال سطح قناة السويس لمنع العبور. وتسلق الجنود المصريون الساتر الترابي ورفعوا علم مصر على الضفة الشرقية للقناة، وتقدموا خلف حصون خط بارليف يواجهون مدرعات العدو بالصواريخ المضادة للدبابات لمنعها من التقدم نحو القناة وإعاقة عملية العبور، وبدأت مجموعات أخرى من مقاتلينا في محاصرة نقاط خط بارليف وتطهيرها من جنود العدو والاستيلاء عليها واحداً بعد الآخر، واستخدم الجنود "قاذفات اللهب" التي تم تطويرها محلياً في تطهير مواقع خط بارليف.

وفى الوقت الذى كان يتم فيه اقتحام القناة بواسطة المشاة كانت بعض الدبابات والمركبات البرمائية تعبر البحيرات المرة.
وبدأت مجموعات من رجال سلاح المهندسين في عمل فتحات في الساتر الرملي بطريقة التجريف عن طريق مضخات مياه ذات ضغط عال، صممها المهندسون المصريون خصيصاً لهذه المهمة التي بدت مستحيلة التنفيذ باستخدام وسائل التفجير التقليدية. و تمكنوا من فتح أكثر من ستين ممرا خلال عدة ساعات وتجريف تسعين ألف متر مكعب من الرمال.
وعلى أثر تأمين رءوس الجسور بواسطة قوات الاقتحام الأولى بدأت وحدات المهندسين فى تمهيد الأرض وإعدادها لبناء الجسور العائمة، لعبور الدبابات والمدفعية والأسلحة الثقيلة، وفى الساعة العاشرة و النصف مساءً كان قد تم إنشاء ثمانية كبارى ثقيلة و أربعة كبارى خفيفة و بناء و تشغيل ثلاثين معدية وتدفقت الدبابات المصرية إلى الضفة الشرقية.

وبعد فتح الثغرات قامت الدبابات البرمائية بعبور القناة وتوغلت فى الثغرات المفتوحة.
وسارعت موجات العبور الأولى بتسلق الضفة الشرقية شديدة الميل وهم يحملون معداتهم عبر سلالم من الحبال، وبدأ فريق منهم في عمل فتحات في الأسلاك الشائكة وحقول الألغام، ثم هاجموا الدشم والسراديب المختلفة داخل النقط الدفاعية ، وقاموا بنسف أبوابها وإطلاق القنابل اليدوية عليها. وركزت المدفعية نيرانها فى العمق التكتيكى ضد الاحتياطي المدرع ومدفعية العدو، ثم اندفعت القوات للعمق التكتيكى لتسيطر على طرق الاقتراب والمواقع الحاكمة فى المنطقة.

وحاولت طائرات العدو ضرب الجسور لكن تصدت لها شبكة الدفاع الجوى وأسقطت بعضاً من هذه الطائرات "حوالى 60 طائرة إسرائيلية فى أول يومين كما ذكرت مجلة التايم الأمريكية فى عددها بتاريخ 29 من أكتوبر 1973: "أنزلت القيادة المصرية عدداً من قوات الصاعقة المغاوير بواسطة طائرات الهليوكوبتر فى مؤخرة العدو عند طرق المواصلات وقرب المطارات ومراكز القيادات والشئون الإدارية ، فأخذت هذه القوات تنصب الكمائن لتعزيزات العدو وأثارت الفوضى والاضطراب فى مؤخرته.
وفي ساعات قليلة، كانت خمس فرق مشاة قد عبرت القناة بطول خط المواجهة، واستطاع جندي المشاة المصري أن يتصدى للدبابات وحده ويمنعها من الوصول للقناة أو تهديد عملية العبور. وكان أمام المشاة حوالى ثلاثمائة دبابة إسرائيلية موزعة على طول الجبهة، وتمكنت قوات المشاة والصاعقة من تدمير حوالي مائة دبابة بمعاونة من نيران المدفعية. و قبل الغروب كان لنا حوالى ثلاثة و ثلاثون ألف مقاتل فى الضفة الشرقية للقناة، وفي الساعة الثامنة والنصف، بدأت الدبابات والأسلحة الثقيلة في العبور على الكباري المصرية، وقبل الساعات الأولى من صباح السابع من أكتوبر، كانت القوات المصرية قد نجحت في تكوين رءوس خمس كباري على طول خط المواجهة.
اقتحام قناة السويس:
تعد قناة السويس مانعاً مائياً فريداً، فهي عميقة وعرضها حوالي مائتي متر، كما أن خصائص عديدة تعوق عملية الاقتحام وأبرزها حركات المد والجزر، وسرعة التيار وتغير اتجاهه بصورة دورية خلال اليوم، علاوة على وجود الساتر الترابى الشرقى للقناة الذى يصل ارتفاعه إلى 26 متراً، ووجود خط بارليف المكون من 27 نقطة حصينة موزعة على طول القناة، وازاء هذه الصعوبات تم إجراء عديد من التجارب:

طرق التفجير: استخدمت فيها الأعيرة المختلفة للمدفعية والصواريخ الموجهة وقنابل الممرات واستخدام المفرقعات.
طرق التجريف الميكانيكي: اعتمدت التجارب على نقل آلات التجريف بواسطة الهليكوبتر لعمل الفتحات في الساتر الترابي.
ولكن الصعوبات العملية أثبتت عدم ملاءمة أي من الوسائل السابقة، إلى أن استطاع سلاح المهندسين تطوير فكرة استخدام التجريف الهيدروليكي بالمياه، وقام المهندسون بإجراء التجارب وتم تصنيع عدد كبير من الطلمبات ذات الضغط العالي في ألمانيا خصيصاً تحت ستار استخدامها في مكافحة الحريق، ومما يذكر أن المهندسين الألمان اندهشوا من تصميم الطلمبات بتلك الطريقة، وكان رد فعلهم يتسم بالسخرية، حيث لم يكشف المصريون عن الهدف الحقيقي لتصنيع تلك الطلمبات.
كما تم تجهيز الأعداد المطلوبة من القوارب والكبارى والمعديات اللازمة للعبور. وقد اقتضت خطة العمليات الموضوعة اقتحام قناة السويس وخط بارليف بخمس فرق مشاة وفي قطاع بورسعيد فى الشمال وفى توقيت واحد.
وقد تركزت المعدات والمهمات المخصصة لعملية الاقتحام والعبور فيما يلي:-
2500 قارب مطاطى وخشبى لعبور فرق النسق الأول ووحدات المهندسين المخصصة لفتح الثغرات فى الساتر الترابى وإنشاء المعابر الهيكلية عليها.
68 ناقلة برمائية خفيفة حمولة 5 طن K61 .
47 ناقلة برمائية متوسطة للمدفعيات حمولة 12 طنا BTS .
27 معدية ذاتية الحركة لعبور الدبابات حمولة 50 طنا GSP
3 كبارى اقتحام خفيف 25 طنا (واحد منها صنع محلياً).
3 كبارى سريعة الإنشاء 60 طنا.
2 كوبرى اقتحام 80 طنا (مصنعة كلها محلياً).
2 كوبرى هيكلى على قوارب خشبية 40 طنا (مصنعة كلها محلياً).
10 كبارى هيكلية على أنابيب مطاطية للأفراد فقط، بالإضافة إلى كبارى المواصلات الموجودة على المجارى المائية الأخرى خلاف قناة السويس فى عمق القوات.
ومن ناحية أخرى، كان لدقة معلومات الاستطلاع الهندسى عن طبيعة قناة السويس والساتر الترابى والنقط الحصينة وموانع العدو على خط بارليف وحقول ألغامه وأنابيب المواد البترولية التى أنشأها على الضفة الشرقية للقناة، أكبر الأثر فى نجاح عملية الاقتحام والعبور إنشاء المعابر فى توقيتات مناسبة، ونجاح قواتنا فى اقتحام النقط الحصينة.
وقد نشطت عناصر الاستطلاع الهندسى وقامت بفتح نقط المساحة الهندسية على الساتر الترابى وعلى الأشجار والمبانى المرتفعة فى المدن غرب القناة لمراقبة العدو على الضفة الشرقية وكشف تغييرات مواقعه وأنواع موانعه، وصاحب ذلك دفع دوريات استطلاع هندسى لمواقع العدو شرق القناة.
ولتحقيق ضمان النجاح والدقة فى التنفيذ قامت القوات المسلحة بانشاء مراكز قيادة متخصصة للحصول على معلومات عن الخصائص الهيدروجرافية لقناة السويس فى التوقيتات المختلفة على مدار العام، وذلك لمعرفة شدة واتجاه التيار – وفرق منسوب المياه بين أعلى مد وأقل جزر، وساهم هذا في تحديد أنسب التوقيتات لعملية العبور.
ولتحقيق الخداع التعبوى قامت وحدات القوات المسلحة بإخفاء التحركات على الطرق لتأمين عملية إعادة التجميع وذلك بإنشاء السواتر الترابية والمعدنية والمصاطب.
العبور العظيم
في الساعة الثانية وخمس دقائق من بعد ظهر السادس من أكتوبر الموافق العاشر من رمضان، انطلقت مائتان واثنان وعشرون طائرة من مختلف القواعد الجوية في أنحاء الجمهورية، وعبرت القناة على ارتفاع منخفض فوق رءوس الجنود المصريين بطول خط المواجهة، وانطلق نسور مصر لأهدافهم في مختلف أنحاء سيناء، بحيث وصلت تلك الطائرات لأهدافها في وقت واحد لتحقيق المفاجأة الكاملة للعدو، وأخذ نسور مصر يدكون مطارات العدو ومحطات الشوشرة ومراكز القيادة والسيطرة لقواته في سيناء الحبيبة. وفي نفس الوقت، وعلى الجبهة السورية، وصلت البلاغات للقيادة الإسرائيلية، أن هناك مائة طائرة تهاجم مواقعهم في الجولان وجبل الشيخ المحتلين، ومما لفت انتباه القيادة الإسرائيلية، أن الهجمات الجوية تمت في وقت واحد على الجبهتين المصرية والسورية. وعادت الطائرات المصرية سالمة بخسائر بسيطة وصلت الى خمس طائرات فقط و هى نسبة أقل بكثير مما كان متوقعاً. وحققت القوات الجوية بقيادة اللواء طيار محمد حسنى مبارك نجاحاً كبيراً فى توجيه هذه الضربة المحكمة والمؤثرة، تتويجاً للجهد الكبير الذى بذلته القوات الجوية فى التحضير و الإعداد و التدريب و التخطيط خلال فترة ما قبل الحرب، و كان نجاح الضربة الجوية بمثابة مفتاح النصر فى الحرب.
صيحة "الله أكبر"
وكان لعبور قواتنا الجوية خط القناة بهذا الحشد الكبير وعلى ارتفاع منخفض جداً، أثره الإيجابي الكبير على معنويات مقاتلينا، فقد التهبت مشاعر الجنود بالحماس والثقة بينما دب الذعر والهلع فى نفوس أفراد العدو. واجتاحت صيحة "الله أكبر" قناة السويس بطول خط المواجهة تزلزل الأرض وتبث الرعب في قلوب جنود العدو.
ولم تكن صيحة الله أكبر مجرد صيحة حناجر، وانما كانت تعبر عن نبض قلوب المقاتلين المفعمة بالثقة فى أن الله أكبر من الخوف والموت والحياة، وأن الله ينصر من ينصره، وأنه إما النصر أو الشهادة، فالموت في معركة الشرف خير من حياة ذليلة مهينة، وأن الشهداء إن هم إلا أحياء عند ربهم يرزقون. وتذكر الجنود الانتصارات الكبرى التي أنعم الله بها على المجاهدين الأوائل في شهر رمضان المعظم، فها هي ذي غزوة بدر التي انتصر فيها نفر قليل من المؤمنين على جموع محتشدة من المشركين، فكانت صيحة الله أكبر تستحضر أمام جنودنا التاريخ كله، وتؤكد أن الله مع المؤمنين إذا صدقوا النية في الجهاد، يشد من أزرهم، ويثبت أقدامهم وينصرهم على عدوهم.
ويقول جرانفيل واطس – مراسل رويترز أثناء الحرب – عن صيحة الله أكبر : " ان صيحة الله أكبر كانت أصيلة وموحية وقوية التأثير إلى الحد الذى تصور المرء معه أن الجنود ليسوا وحدهم هم الذين يهتفون بها ، بل – أيضاً – الجبال والرمال والذخيرة والأفق كله".
لقد جاء العبور في شهر رمضان المبارك، وكان الاسم الشفري لخطة العبور هو "بدر" تيمناً بغزوة بدر، وجاءت صيحة الله أكبر كشعار القتال والتضحية والنصر.

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من برنامج
أكتوبر
نقطة التحول في الصراع العربي الإسرائيلي
الناشر
Horizon Studios
Ministry of Defense, Military Researches Authority

Egypt Remembers October 1

البيانات العسكرية المصرية

يوم 6 من أكتوبر:

البيان الأول:
(أذيع في الساعة الثانية والربع) بعد الظهر:
"قام العدو في الساعة الواحدة والنصف من بعد ظهر اليوم بمواجهة قواتنا بمنطقتي الزعفرانة والسخنة في خليج السويس بواسطة عدة تشكيلات من قواته الجوية عندما كانت بعض من زوارقه البحرية تقترب من الساحل الغربي من الخليج، وتقوم قواتنا حالياً بالتصدي للقوات المغيرة".
البيان رقم 2:
(أذيع في الساعة الثانية و 35 دقيقة)
"رداً على العدوان الغادر الذي قام به العدو ضد قواتنا في كل من مصر وسوريا، تقوم حالياً بعض من تشكيلاتنا الجوية بقصف قواعد العدو وأهدافه العسكرية في الأراضي المحتلة"
البيان رقم 3:
(أذيع في الساعة الثالثة بعد الظهر)
"إلحاقاً للبيان رقم 2، نفذت قواتنا الجوية مهامها بنجاح، أصابت مواقع العدو بإصابات مباشرة، وعادت جميع طائراتنا إلى قواعدها سالمة عدا طائرة واحدة".
البيان رقم 4:
(أذيع في الساعة الثالثة و 20 دقيقة)
"حاولت قوات معادية الاستيلاء على جزء من أراضينا غرب القناة، وقد تصدت لها قواتنا البرية، وقامت بهجوم مضاد ناجح ضدها بعد قصفات مركزة من مدفعيتنا على النقاط القوية المعادية، ثم قامت بعض من قواتنا باقتحام قناة السويس ومطاردة العدو إلى الضفة الشرقية في بعض مناطقها، ولازال الاشتباك مستمراً على الضفة الشرقية لقناة السويس".
البيان رقم 5:
(أذيع في الساعة الرابعة و 6 دقائق)
"نجحت قواتنا في اقتحام قناة السويس في قطاعات عديدة، استولت على نقط العدو القوية بها، ورفع علم مصر على الضفة الشرقية للقناة، كما قامت القوات المسلحة السورية باقتحام مواقع العدو في مواجهتها… وحققت نجاحاً مماثلاً في قطاعات مختلفة".
البيان رقم 6:
(أذيع في الساعة الخامسة مساء)
"نتيجة لنجاح قواتنا في عبور قناة السويس قام العدو بدفع قواته الجوية بإعداد كبيرة، فتصدت له مقاتلاتنا، واشتبكت معه في معارك عنيفة، وقد أسفرت المعارك عن تدمير إحدى عشرة طائرة للعدو، وقد فقدت قواتنا عشر طائرات في هذه المعارك".
البيان رقم 7:
(أذيع في الساعة السابعة و 35 دقيقة):
"نجحت قواتنا المسلحة في عبور قناة السويس على طول الجبهة، وتم الاستيلاء على معظم الشاطئ الشرقي للقنال. وتواصل قواتنا حالياً قتالها مع العدو بنجاح. كما قامت قواتنا البحرية بحماية الجانب الأيسر لقواتنا على ساحل البحر الأبيض المتوسط. وقد قامت بضرب الأهداف الهامة للعدو على الساحل الشمالي لسيناء، وأصابتها إصابات مباشرة."
البيان رقم 8:
(أذيع في الساعة 12 و 42 دقيقة بعد منتصف الليل):
"قام العدو بعد آخر ضوء اليوم بهجمات مضادة بالدبابات والمشاة الميكانيكية، ضد قواتنا التي عبرت قناة السويس ومن اتجاهات مختلفة، وقد تمكنت قواتنا من صد جميع هذه الهجمات وتدمير العدو وتكبيده خسائر كبيرة في الأفراد والمعدات، ولازالت قواتنا تقاتل بنجاح من مواقعها على الضفة الشرقية للقناة."

Monday, October 06, 2008

Remembering 6 October



ماذا حدث يوم 6 أكتوبر؟

ماذا حدث يوم 6 أكتوبر؟

كيف؟

ولماذا؟

أكثر من 60% من المصريين لم يعيشوا أحداث هذا اليوم

ولم يعلموا أن مصر كانت محتلة

وأن المصريين عبروا القناة وخاضوا حرباً شرسة لاسترجاع سيناء

لماذا نجحنا في 6 أكتوبر وفشلنا في 5 يونيو؟

ماذا كانت نتيجة الحرب؟

هل انتصرت مصر بالفعل؟

هل انتصرت إسرائيل كما تدعي؟

هل جاء السلام نتيجة للحرب؟

هل جاء السلام أصلاً؟


شارك في هذه المناقشة

جروب
مصر تتذكر
على الفيسبوك







Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Graham Watson, MEP, Calls for e-Freedom





Graham Watson, MEP, Calls for e-Freedom



Dear Colleague,

At this moment, at least 80 people around the world are behind bars because they dared to express their political opinions online.

I am hoping that you will take a moment to add your name to a petition by parliamentarians and others calling for their release.


The short statement below, calling for freedom of expression on the Internet, is being signed by members of Parliament and Congress on all continents, and will then be circulated for signature by journalists, citizens and groups. Once it has received a large number of signatures, it will be sent to heads of state and government - including those who are holding the prisoners - as well as to the UN Human Rights Council. The list of prisoners named in the statement will be updated regularly.


This Call for e-Freedom has been initiated by the e-Parliament, which as you may know is a new forum for democratic legislators.

For the first time in history, the internet enables us to have a truly global conversation about our common future – in our local communities, our national communities and our global community.

In blogs, websites and discussion groups, people are sharing ideas, exposing corruption and building networks to solve common problems.

Yet in some parts of the world, people who express views that conflict with those of their leaders risk imprisonment, torture or death. This is not only a denial of their rights. It denies their countries the benefits of free debate, and it prevents the world from hearing their voices as our global conversation expands day by day.


We believe it is entirely appropriate for those of us who have been elected to Parliaments and Congresses to raise our voices on behalf of those who are in prison, and in support of the Internet as a global space for free expression and debate.

You can add your name simply by emailing info@e-parl.net . Alternatively please visit our website at http://www.e-parl.net/ or text +44-751-586-1589 or write to Post Box 922, 2400 Copenhagen NV, Denmark. If you can also encourage your colleagues to add their names, we would be most grateful.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Sincerely,

Graham Watson, MEP
Member of the European Parliament
Chair, e-Parliament Democracy Network



















Comments:

This is a very important initiative. In Egypt we have several bloggers in jail. Some of them are detained under emergency law and we do not even know their whereabouts including


  • Ahmed El Mounairy: Blogger - Arrested in April 2008 - Mahalla - for showing on his blog photos of Policemen Damaging their own vehicles to stage claims of violence and destruction of government property, detained under Emergency Law

  • Karim Amer: Blogger - Arrested two years ago ( sentenced on 27th Feb 2007 - on the charge of derogation of religion (but his real crime was to criticize President Mubarak on his blog). A member of El Ghad Liberal Party


We must also prepare ourselves to face yet another potential assault on e-Freedom of Speech, as we hear news of a new legislation, leaked by the Daily Independent, Al Masry Al Youm. The new Law, now known as Fikky's Law, is due to be presented to Parliament for ratification next November. The proposed law allegedly classifies any Writings, Signs, Graphics or Audiovisuals, "made accessible" on the the Internet, Blogs, Facebook, YouTube, etc., as "Broadcast", requiring special licenses. The alleged law also provided wide authorities for censors and heavy punishments for "Boradcasting Content" deemed as inappropriate or violating public ethics or social peace, which are broad terms used to allow selective incrimination of activists.

This Group (Support Free Media in Egypt : 2,500 members) was formed to protest the law:

http://www.new.facebook.com/group.php?gid=19982242894

Call for e-Freedom


Members of the

European Parliament

Call for e-Freedom



A Call for e-Freedom was launched by Members of the European Parliament Graham Watson, Anna Maria Gomes, Sirpa Pietikainen and Anders Wijkman. They claim that there are at least 80 people in the world currently in jail for posting their political opinions online. Their detention is a clear and gross violation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Tom Brake, Liberal Democrat MP for Carshalton and Wallington is backing a campaign calling for freedom of expression on the Internet for all people, The Call for e-Freedom.


Talking about the issue, Tom Brake MP said, ‘It is truly upsetting that all over the world people’s basic right to self-expression is being violated. This campaign will show that the people of the world are willing to stand up for their rights and against repression and dictatorship.’If you wish to add your support for The Call for e-Freedom you can visit their website at





or text
+44‐751‐586‐1589



or write to
Post Box 922, 2400 Copenhagen NV, Denmark.


Please encourage your friends colleagues to add their support to this worthy cause.



This is a very important initiative. In Egypt we have several bloggers in jail. Some of them are detained under emergency law and we do not even know their whereabouts including

  • Ahmed El Mounairy: Blogger - Arrested in April 2008 - Mahalla - for showing on his blog photos of Policemen Damaging their own vehicles to stage claims of violence and destruction of government property, detained under Emergency Law

  • Karim Amer: Blogger - Arrested two years ago - sentenced on 27th Feb 2007 - on the charge of derogation of religion (but his real crime was to criticize President Mubarak on his blog). A member of El Ghad Liberal Party
We must also prepare ourselves for yet another potential assault on Freedom of Speech, as we hear news of a draft of a new legislation, leaked by the Daily Independent, Al Masry Al Youm. The new Law, now known as Fikky's Law, is due to be presented to Parliament for ratification next November. The proposed law allegedly classifies any Writings, Signs, Graphics or Audiovisuals, "made accessible" on the the Internet, Blogs, Facebook, YouTube, etc., as "Broadcast", requiring special licenses. The alleged law also provided wide authorities for censors and heavy punishments for "Boradcasting Content" deemed as inappropriate or violating public ethics or social peace, which are broad terms used to allow selective incrimination of activists.

This Group (Support Free Media in Egypt : 2,500 members) was formed to protest the law:

http://www.new.facebook.com/group.php?gid=19982242894


Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Going Down a Financial Black Hole

When Markets go Crazy


Well, markets are tumbling and the Dow will probably fall another 2000 points. The 2002 low looks like the best support for a bottom on the technical charts. The financial cannibalism also continues on Wall St.

Wachovia bank was gobbled up by Citicorp. Wachovia almost ate up Goldman Sachs just a few weeks ago. The concentration of more wealth in fewer and fewer hands continues.

Congress revolted today because it has lost a lot of political power since Bush took office. First with limits on foreign policy and judicial oversight. Now with even more limits in the financial sphere.

Bush, McCain and Palin are now seen by many Americans as a joke. But Obama will have a hard time governing when he wins in November because he will inherit a nation in serious decline.

The US is saddled with huge amounts of debt and most of it is owned by foreigners. It was a nice party while it lasted. Americans are now going to wake up in a world where they are no longer number one.

It's nothing to cry about. Usually one single power has a hard time running the world. When there are multiple powers its hard to run things too, but it forces nations into international cooperation. It's an unstable system, but history shows these two options are the only ones in town.

We are in the middle of a historic shake-out.

See you on the other side of the historical black hole....


  • Comments from Michael's Readers


    Financial Chaos
    Yes. It was a nice party while it lasted.

    But I am afraid there are going to be many chaotic repercussions until things settle again ...

    Our global financial system is seriously flawed ... fundamentally screwed up ... simply because it is built on rewarding speculation not hard work ...

    Brokers, rather than producers or service providers, making the bucks .... this is good in a gambling casino for a weekend in vegas, but can not be the basis for a solid financial system to govern the lives of 6 billion people and many trillions of dollars ...


    On capital gains, achieved by inflatting stocks rather dividends coming from actual operations ... on P/E ratios in the hundreds or throusands when they should be should be 5, 10, 20 or even 30.

    That kind of correction requires major major change of mind ... I do not think that it is even going to happen this time ... but it is going to be painful as hell ...
    ( Posted by: wael nawara [Member] On: September 30, 2008 )


  • Too Easy
    Hi

    Might have guessed it would be all too easy for Government to buy up all the bad debt.... After all unlike the people that buy debt at vastly reduced prices the government wouldn't have a clue how to "Chase it UP" and would write it off or the tax payer would pay it in full?

    I remember the big Lloyd's insurance scandal...well not really a scandal they just called in commitments from high interest account holders or whatever (much to their disgust) to meet a big loss....as per the agreement...

    Yep far too many fat cats taking money that isn't there to be taken...why should the tax payer be hit....... of course everyone knows the money will come from "The Man (or Woman) in the street) at the end of the day..... It will just be different highwaymen taking a turn at robbing him/her.

    Is there is no way of making the rich poor.....?

    Eric
    ( Posted by: Fairplay [Member] On: September 30, 2008 )

  • Well....

    This happens in cycles. The empire starts running on acts of financial hocus pocus rather than real and self-generating invention and production. Spain, Holland, England got hit by this and now the US....

    ...the ponzi scheme has reached its mathematical limits and now everyone is fighting about who gets screwed the least. Many rich are falling, but the survivors of this rich spat will always come out on top....

    I hope you have cash.
    ( Posted by: gamblerman [Member] On: September 30, 2008 )
  • Just have to Wait : Cash would be fine though it would have to be in Gold...... or at least something other than notes with pictures of people on them....We are living in a word of make belief it seems...Babies are now getting born with no teeth no hair no clothes and an outstanding loan... Eric
    ( Posted by: Fairplay [Member] On: September 30, 2008 )

  • Uh.... All is digital illusion:
    Just like paper illusion in days gone by, but the effects on economies are REAL...I see someday a totally automated society with only digital cash and no big bureaucracies....this transcends left/right arguments.It's sci-fi right now....but it won't be for long. This current economic creative destruction will get us there. Who will rule this new world is not clear.Also the demographic bubble that has been building since the 1400's will pop in 30 years. China and India are the last to have a baby bust. Less people less green problems....Russia, Europe, and Japan cannot even replace their populations....without immigration neither could the US. Michael

Financial Chaos: Vegas at Large


Gambling Made Legal Everywhere


Our global financial system is seriously flawed. Flawed is not the right word, it is fundamentally screwed up. Simply because it is built on rewarding speculation not hard work. People are encouraged to borrow and spend beyond their means. Banks lend money and they know that the borrower can not pay back. Banks think, or pretend to think, that their loan is guaranteed because they have the house as a collateral. But the house price is 10 times inflated. The higher the price, the bigger the loan, or mortgage, the higher the interest revenues earned, the happier the bank!


But what happens when people can not pay back their loans and banks end up putting their hands on thousands of houses? What happens when banks need money to pay their bills and they can not give employees salaries in "living room", "stairway" or "basement" tokens? Banks then have to sell. But when everyone is selling, prices plunge. And when prices plunge the collateral's selling price becomes 50%, 25% or less of the original loan value. Trillions of dollars, value which never existed in the first place, evaporate in thin air.

In our global financial system, brokers, rather than producers or service providers, are rewarded by making the big bucks. This is good in a gambling casino for a weekend in Vegas or so, but can not be the basis of a solid financial system to govern the lives of 6 billion people and many trillions of dollars.


Speculators make their profits not from "dividends", which represent a variable percentage of the profits earned by the economic enterprise they had invested in. No. They make their profits from capital gains, achieved by inflating stock prices rather than earnings or dividends coming from actual operations, on P/E ratios in the hundreds or thousands when they should be in the range of 5, 10, 20 or even 30. These capital gains happen as a result of stock appreciation, created by demand being more than supply, again as a result of the growing market of speculation, as everyone seems to enjoy gambling. The stock market has thus become the biggest legal "Get-Rich-Quick Scheme" on Earth.

The stock market is no longer a place where companies wishing to erect plants or expand operations can raise capital to finance purchase of assets, fund new production lines, spend on research and development of new products or technologies, marketing or distribution channels. The stock market is and has been for a very long time Vegas at Large. Where everyone can gamble, win and eventually lose, legally, all year round and often at tax-payers' expense.

The kind of correction needed, requires major change of mind. I do not think that it is even going to happen this time ... but it is going to be painful as hell.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Before America Votes



US presidential debate:


Early polls give

Barack Obama

slender victory



Barack Obama appears to have won a slender victory over John McCain in the first presidential debate, a vital test for both candidates in America's knife-edge election campaign.

By Philip Sherwell in Oxford, Mississippi Last Updated: 7:58AM BST 28 Sep 2008




Two instant television polls and a focus group showed Barack Obama ahead Photo: EPA


Two instant television polls and a focus group conducted by top consultant Frank Luntz gave the Democratic senator a lead over his Republican rival among the all-important undecided voters.
His apparent victory was not clear cut, however, with some pundits declaring Sen McCain the winner on points just five weeks before Americans cast their ballots.


Although the party nomination battles began 20 months ago and the election has already cost more than $1 billion, this was the first time that many Americans will have focused closely on the performance of the two candidates to replace President George W Bush.


With two more debates due before the Nov 4 voting, neither candidate landed a knock-out punch or committed the sort of disastrous gaffe that can determine an election.


Instead, they both tried to impress on viewers a negative image of the other candidate: Mr McCain kept insinuating that his younger rival lacked the experience for high office.



"There are some advantages to experience and knowledge and judgement," he said. He then taunted Mr Obama by quoting a remark used in the primaries by Joe Biden, who subsequently became the Democratic senator's running mater. "I don't need to do any on-the-job training," he said.

In turn, Mr Obama repeatedly linked the Arizona senator to the failed policies of the Bush administration, saying Mr McCain had agreed with the president "90 per cent of the time".
When pressed to answer the most important question in America today, however, neither candidate was willing to risk a clear response: they both dodged questions on the $700 billion plan to rescue Wall Street.


Mr McCain cited his battle against wasteful federal expenditure, the first of many references during the evening to his "record" - drawing an implicit contrast with his rival's inexperience on the national stage.


Mr Obama countered by seeking to tie Mr McCain to the economic policies of the Bush White House and its "orgy of spending" and argued that he was out of touch with the needs of American workers.


During the exchanges on economics, Mr McCain accused Mr Obama of having "the most liberal voting record in the Senate" and then added: "It's hard to reach across the aisle from that far to the left."


Mr Obama responded: "John mentioned me being wildly liberal. Mostly, that's just me opposing George Bush's wrongheaded policies since I've been in Congress."


In these televised debates, as much attention is paid to style as substance. Mr Obama still came across as cool and slightly detached at times - although not as aloof or professorial as during the primaries. And he came to life during the more lively clashes over foreign policy.


But Mr McCain also sometimes reinforced negative impressions of himself as a "cranky old man" as he repeatedly put his young foe down with the words "he doesn't understand" and refused to look him in the eye.


Just hours before the debate began it was unclear whether it would happen at all. Mr McCain had stunned Americans by announcing he would not take part in order to help push the financial bail-out through Congress.


But at the last minute he changed his mind and flew to the small college town of Oxford where the debate was being held on the campus of the University of Mississippi.


While the financial crisis dominated headlines, it was foreign affairs that provoked the sharpest exchanges in Friday night's showdown.


On Iraq, Mr McCain assailed Mr Obama for opposing the recent troop "surge", refusing to acknowledge its success, insisting on a timetable for withdrawal and not visiting the country for more than 900 days.


But Mr Obama took the fight to Mr McCain, reminding the audience that he had opposed the war from the start and then attacking his rival's judgment on a series of key issues.




"You said it was going to be quick and easy. You said we knew where the weapons of mass destruction were. You were wrong. You said we were going to be greeted as liberators. You were wrong. You said that there was no history of violence between the Shia and Sunni. You were wrong."


Mr McCain took the harshest digs at Mr Obama over his assertion during the primary battle with former First Lady Hillary Clinton that he would be willing to meet the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad without setting conditions.
"Sen Obama doesn't seem to understand that if without precondition you sit down across the table from someone who has called Israel a 'stinking corpse', and wants to destroy that country and wipe it off the map, you legitimise those comments," he said witheringly. "This is dangerous. It isn't just naive, it's dangerous."


Mr McCain also slammed Mr Obama for allegedly saying he would attack Pakistan. That brought a stinging riposte. "Coming from you, who in the past has threatened extinction for North Korea and sung songs about bombing Iran, I don't know how credible that is," said Mr Obama.


The Democrat repeatedly said that Mr McCain had backed Mr Bush in making Iraq a priority when Osama bin Laden remained free somewhere on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Although the debate was originally scheduled to cover foreign affairs and national security, the first 40 of the 90 minutes were eventually allotted to the economic crisis.


Mr McCain's sometimes patronising attitude cost him support among a panel of 27 undecided voters assembled in the swing state of Nevada by Mr Luntz, a Republican polling guru.
Using hand-held dials, they indicated their reactions throughout the debate. Thirteen had supported Democrat John Kerry four years ago and 12 were for Mr Bush, with two voting for neither. By the end of Friday's debate, 17 said they felt more favourable about Mr Obama and 10 about Mr McCain.


"They felt that McCain was too negative and they didn't see the validity of some of his attacks," Mr Luntz told The Sunday Telegraph. "They felt he had the experience ut they wanted to hear him talk about the future not the past. And they felt he had been playing politics when he threatened not to turn up for the debate.


"Obama came across as more passionate and more eager. He seemed to have more life to him.


"It was an ok night for John McCain and a good one for Barack Obama. The trouble for McCain is that he's the one behind in the polls. He now only has two debates left to score."


In a so-called "insta-poll" of 524 uncommitted voters for CNN, Mr Obama won the debate by 51 per cent to 38 per cent. CBS conducted a similar survey with a victory for Mr Obama by a 39 to 24 per cent margin, with 36 per cent declaring it a draw.


Advisors to the two candidates sought to spin the debate result afterwards. "John McCain had Obama on the defensive throughout for his naïve statements and bad judgement," said Charlie Black, a senior aide to the Republican candidate.


Mr McCain's campaign senior strategist Steve Schmidt stuck to similar talking points, arguing:

"McCain showed his mastery of the issues tonight and Obama was on the back foot. Sen Obama is a gifted speaker but he doesn't have a record of bringing about change."

David Axelrod, Mr Obama's top strategist, responded:
"Only one candidate was presenting a vigorous case for change and standing up for real America. That was Barack Obama. McCain is mistaking his long resume for evidence of wisdom and judgement."

Sad Friday: Cairo Fire in Small Installments

Egyptians React to Cairo "Fires"


in their Facebook Status Lines!



A month has barely passed since the Shura Council (Upper House of the Egyptian Parliament)fire. You could still sense the heat, if not in the ashes on site, you would so in the debates which are sweeping the Egyptian society.

And now, the Egyptian National Theater, Ataba Square, is also on fire. What is going on?
At six o'clock, the time of breaking Ramadan fast, on the "Sad Friday", or the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan, the National Theater of Ataba square came under fire.

Why is it a "Sad Friday"? It is probably sad because Ramadan is about to end. But it is also sad because this theater is one of the oldest in Cairo and witnessed quite a number of great performances specially in the sixties. Because that Theater was a government-owned entity, a non-commercial theater, many had regarded it as the last resort for serious theatrical works. But that was in the past. The theater like everything else related to the regime in Egypt, had also been plagued by corruption and beaurarcy and the the laws of "inverted selection", or "natural deselection", where the "good would die young" and mostly, with a few exceptions, hypocrits and mediocre artists of proven loyalty to a corrupt regime would survive and stand a chance.

Enough opinions for now. The Egyptian Community on Facebook reaction to the fire was quite interesting but largely consistent:

Amira Mekkawy said in her status: "Cairo Fire on Installments"! This witty comment refers to 1952 huge fire in Cairo which devoured many theaters, cinemas and buildings, and compares it to events of 2008, 56 years later, where the fire is also devouring important and ancient buildings of Cairo, but now one at a time.

Manal Fahmy asked, also in her status line: "our heritage on fire ... is it a coincidence?" and got a comment from one of her friends saying that "Our Heritage is the target!"

Sameh Abu El Dahab an activist and a blogger was one of the first to alert the Facebook community to news of the fire in a factual, neutral manner.

Bahaa Mohamed, suggested that the fires are a part of a zionist conspiracy and a cultural war against Egypt!


Ahmed Milad, an activist and a blogger asks: Why none of these fires come even close to Presidential Palaces?

Eman Hashem sees that this is "Business is usual, in fact, less than the usual" !

Walid Fouad makes an observation, that the Fire took place on the "Eve of the Decree" or "Lilat El Qadr", which, with a little twist, could be translated as "Eve of Fate", and wonders if there is a hidden meaning for this connection!
Samir Saad describes the fire as "Episode number 10,000 of Egyptian Disaster Series, and is sadened as Egypt's cultural heritage burns".

Hany El Khayat wonders "Who is burning Cairo? "

Moataz Emam provided a link to a BBC video clip of the fire and asks for Gods Support, Grace and Mercy.

There are about 900,000 Egyptians on Facebook, and thus Facebook is the largest connected community in Egypt, online or otherwise.


The reactions to the Shura Council fire of last month were less sympathetic. In fact, in trying to understand the reactions, we ran a small survey asking if "The Egyptian Parliament truly Represented the People", and 89% of the respondents said "No. Almost never!" while 8% said, "Yes. Sometimes!"


The reactions this time are much more concerned, probably because the Theater is more of cultural, rather than a political, symbol, unlike the Shura council, which people saw as a part of a corrupt regime.



Saturday, September 27, 2008

Hypocrisy of Egyptian NeoCons

Liberals ...
Damaging the Liberal Cause

Recently, we have witnessed a commendable campaign to bring President Bashir of Sudan to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes committed against humanity in Darfur ...

Honorable Judge Bastawisi, wrote an important article in Al Masry Al Youm in support of this measure, and explained that the REAL GUARANTY against having heads of states tried before the court, is to INSTALL INDEPENDENT JUDICIARY on a National Level, where fair trial is guaranteed of every one and for every credible claim ...

What amazes me, is that so called, self-proclaimed, Egyptian NeoCons, were very much SUPPORTIVE of bringing President Bashir to trial ... what I do not understand is, how can they do that, when they know that that the United States under NeoCon administration tried everything possible to undermine the court including pressuring other states to refrain from cooperation with the court.

Under Clinton Administration (Democrat), the United States of America was one of only 7 nations (joining China, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Qatar and Israel) to vote against the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 1998.

But the Bush administration's hostility to the ICC has increased dramatically in 2002 under the Bush administration. The U.S. opposition to the ICC was in stark contrast to the strong support for the Court by most of America's closest allies.

In an unprecedented diplomatic maneuver, the Bush administration effectively withdrew the U.S. signature on the treaty. The Bush administration then went requesting states around the world to approve bilateral agreements requiring them not to surrender American nationals to the ICC !

The U.S Congress passed the American Servicemembers' Protection Act (ASPA), which was signed into law by President Bush, which prohibits U.S. cooperation with the ICC; allowing the U.S. to "invade the Hague, Netherland, seat of the ICC"تصريح بغزو لا هاي (!!) by authorizing the President to "use all means necessary and appropriate" to free U.S. personnel (and certain allied personnel) detained or imprisoned by the ICC, in addition to punishment for States that join the ICC treaty: refusing military aid to States' Parties to the treaty (except major U.S. allies), etc.

When I see "Egyptian" NeoCons Supporting, in fact promoting, Trial of President Bashir of Sudan before ICC, when the NeoCons passed a Law allowing INVASION of another Sovereign State to illegally extradite possible US offenders tried before the very same court, ICC ... when I see that ...




I say that this is Hypocrisy of the highest proportions ...

And for the avoidance of doubt, I am with and whole-heartedly for, the fair Trial of Bashir before ICC, and I am for fair trial of every person who is suspected of commiting crimes against humanity but may go unpunished under the inadequacy of national or local laws, also before ICC.

But I am asking self-proclaimed "Liberals" to stop their systematic use of double standards which has in fact damaged the Liberal cause and has given "Liberalism" a bad name, a bad name which it does not deserve.

I say to those claiming to be liberals and freedom fighters, who insist that "Islamic Extremism" is a threat to our country and to our world, I tell them, that the only chance that liberals have in reaching out to the people and gaining their trust and votes, thus curbing "Extremists" from climbing the seats of power, is for Liberals to WALK the TALK, to embrace Liberal values and principles and APPLY them equally on friends and adversaries alike, without DISCTINCTION between those we like and those who are unpopular.

The real test of our integrity is NOT when we fight for the the freedoms of those whom we like. The Real Test of our Integrity is not when we defend our friends. The real test of our integrity is when we fight for the freedoms of those who are unpopular. Those whom we do not particularly like. The real test of our integrity, is when we tell friends that we believe they are WRONG.

Please stop your double-standards and hypocrisy, for they have damaged the Liberal Cause a great deal.






*************************



Read HJ Bastawisi's Article in Al Masry Al Youm


المستشار هشام البسطويسي يكتب: نعم
يجب أن يحاكم البشير دوليا ولو اعتصم بحصانة مغتصبة


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http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=114295


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